Areal Flood Warning 71, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
730 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/241 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009/

LEADING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND AWAY
FROM THE CWA...WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN
REMAINING. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE CURRENT FLOODING WELL IN HAND
AND WILL EXPIRE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE MORNING ZONE ISSUANCE.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE LOW
AND FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE CLOSELY TODAY...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL RECOVERY TO TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH. IF
WE HADNT JUST HAD 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA I WOULD
PROBABLY BE ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT...BUT SATURATED
GROUND AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACT TO MODIFY THE AIR MASS.
THIS WILL KEEP FROST PATCHY AT BEST AND PROBABLY CONFINED TO JUST
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL. I
WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT DETERMINE THE NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND ONLY INCLUDE PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE COUNTIES FOR NOW.

NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS MONTANA WILL MARCH ACROSS
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. BRIEF SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BEFORE FROPA. EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL CERTAINLY FLIRT WITH THE
FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FROST OR EVEN FREEZING CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...SURFACE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WHICH WOULD KEEP WIND AT
OR ABOVE 5KTS...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL. IF THE HIGH WERE TO MOVE
FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS MISSOURI AT 12Z...FROST
AND FREEZE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

SIDED WITH COLDER MET GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AS COLD START AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE INCREASE. WARM ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN
INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LOOKING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GIVEN THE FACT IT HAS
RAINED THE PAST 3 THURSDAYS...PERIODICITY ALONE WOULD SUGGEST THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION MAY BE CORRECT WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TAKING
AIM ON THE REGION NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...
/628 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...FEW CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAFS AS OVERALL
TRENDS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
THIS AFTN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF
ABUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE...CLRG SKIES JUST BEFORE SUNSET...AND
WINDS BCMG LGT/VAR UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE
N. INTRODUCED PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS AFTER 06Z AT ALL SITES HOWEVER
THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
352 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RUNOFF FROM YESTERDAYS HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FLOOD LOCAL
STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS. LOW LYING AREAS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE FLOODING OR STANDING WATER.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE...PATHCY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
711 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE AUXVASSE          39.01N  91.88W
10/09/2009  M5.63 INCH       CALLAWAY           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5.63 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR WITH 2.78 INCHES OF RAIN IN
            THE PAST 24 HOURS

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900232

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
725 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 AM     FLOOD            WESTPHALIA              38.44N  92.00W
10/09/2009                   OSAGE              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO FLOODING AT THE SOUTH END OF
            WESTPHAILA WHERE MAIN ST BECOMES CR615. DEPUTY REPORTS
            WATER UP TO THE HEIGHT OF CAR BUMPERS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900233

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
822 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DU BOIS                 38.22N  89.21W
10/09/2009  M3.50 INCH       WASHINGTON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900234

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
824 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COLLINSVILLE            38.68N  90.00W
10/09/2009  E3.70 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900235

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
833 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 S STEELVILLE          37.87N  91.36W
10/09/2009  M4.20 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR. THIS AMOUNT INCLUDES 1.5 INCHES
            THAT FELL BETWEEN 830 PM LAST NIGHT AND CURRENT TIME.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900236

TRUETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
840 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6  SE SULLIVAN          38.15N  91.09W
10/09/2009  M5.30 INCH       WASHINGTON         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            36 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0900237

TRUETT