River Flood Warning 139, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/359 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009/

.SYNOPSIS...
WSW ZONAL FLOW TO TRANSITION TO A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE US BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH PESKY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IN/IL TO S OF KC METRO TO
TX PANHANDLE. WV IMAGERY INDICATES SW ENTERING WESTERN MO. RADAR SHOWS
ELEVATED ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MO WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SW AND SURFACE WAVE TO TRAVERSE AREA THIS MORNING INDUCING
ADDITIONAL PRECIP. PRECIP TO END BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SW INCREASES. FRONT PUSHES OUT OF MO AND IL OVERNIGHT ONLY TO
WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. TRYING TO PIN DOWN TIMING
OR COVERAGE IN THIS PATTERN HAS PROVEN DIFFICULT AT BEST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN BROAD BRUSHING OF LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE FRONT IN THE PROXIMITY AND NUMEROUS RIPPLES IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...ANY OF THESE COULD TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSTMS.

TRIED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF MORE CLOSELY WITH THIS PACKAGE AS IT HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEK. THE NAM
HAS CONTINUED TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS WELL AS DEVELOPING A SURFACE
LOW SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.

WENT AT OR BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH CLOUDS...E/NE FLOW AND PRECIP CHANCES...SHOULD KEEP
US BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AT
500 MB STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. NO CHANGES MADE PAST MONDAY.

MILLER

&&

.AVIATION...
/636 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

SHORTWV NOW ACROSS WESTERN MO IS ROCKETING EASTWARD WITH ATTENDANT
SFC LOW JUST NW OF KCOU. PCPN SHOULD RAPIDLY COME TO AN END BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW/CDFNT
CONTINUE EASTWARD. KUIN AND STL AREA TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
GOOD 2-4 HR WINDOW OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. A POTPOURRI
OF CIGS CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THINK THE GENERAL
TREND ONCE WE GET SOME HEATING THIS MORNING IS FOR STRATOCU/MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS WITHIN THE NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME STRATOCU WILL LINGER AFTER SUNSET AND INTO THE NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG LATE TONIGHT.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
458 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-121000-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
458 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
707 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WINFIELD                39.00N 90.74W
06/10/2009                   LINCOLN            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LARGE ROTTEN TREE BLOWN DOWN AND WENT THROUGH THE ROOF
            OF A TRAILER ON NORTH LINDSEY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902340

FGLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
712 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W OLD MONROE          38.93N 90.78W
06/10/2009                   LINCOLN            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            3 FEET OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY C NEAR MARYKNOLL. WATER
            RESCUE PERFORMED WHEN A CAR DROVE INTO THE WATER AND
            THEN WAS WASHED INTO A DITCH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902341

FGLASS