River Flood Warning 137, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS83 KLSX 111808
FLSLSX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
108 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
MISSOURI...
 

  MARIES RIVER NEAR WESTPHALIA AFFECTING OSAGE COUNTY


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ISSUED REGARDING THIS FLOODING EVENT
NEAR WESTPHALIA...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES 
THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW FOR SAFE 
PASSAGE.

THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER AND STREAM INFORMATION IS 
AVAILABLE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LSX /LOWER 
CASE/

&&

MOC151-111838-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FL.W.0137.000000T0000Z-090613T0000Z/
/WPHM7.1.ER.090611T1126Z.090611T1245Z.090611T1356Z.NO/
108 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE MARIES RIVER NEAR WESTPHALIA.
* AT 12:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  8:56 AM THURSDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 2.0 FEET BY FRIDAY 
  MORNING.


$$

&&
                   FLD  LATEST              7AM FORECAST
LOCATION           STG  OBS STG   06/12  06/13  06/14  06/15  06/16

MARIES RIVER
  WESTPHALIA       10    7.17       2.0    1.7    1.6    1.4    1.2

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
427 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/359 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009/

.SYNOPSIS...
WSW ZONAL FLOW TO TRANSITION TO A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE US BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH PESKY FRONT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IN/IL TO S OF KC METRO TO
TX PANHANDLE. WV IMAGERY INDICATES SW ENTERING WESTERN MO. RADAR SHOWS
ELEVATED ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MO WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SW AND SURFACE WAVE TO TRAVERSE AREA THIS MORNING INDUCING
ADDITIONAL PRECIP. PRECIP TO END BY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SW INCREASES. FRONT PUSHES OUT OF MO AND IL OVERNIGHT ONLY TO
WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. TRYING TO PIN DOWN TIMING
OR COVERAGE IN THIS PATTERN HAS PROVEN DIFFICULT AT BEST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN BROAD BRUSHING OF LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE FRONT IN THE PROXIMITY AND NUMEROUS RIPPLES IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...ANY OF THESE COULD TOUCH OFF SHRA/TSTMS.

TRIED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF MORE CLOSELY WITH THIS PACKAGE AS IT HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEK. THE NAM
HAS CONTINUED TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS WELL AS DEVELOPING A SURFACE
LOW SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING.

WENT AT OR BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART. MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH CLOUDS...E/NE FLOW AND PRECIP CHANCES...SHOULD KEEP
US BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FRONT FINALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AT
500 MB STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. NO CHANGES MADE PAST MONDAY.

MILLER

&&

.AVIATION...
/1245 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS WILL BE IFR/LIFR
STRATUS...AND SECONDARY CHALLENGE IS WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REDEVELOP. WE STILL HAVE A SURFACE FRONT HANGING AROUND THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS MOISTURE AND CREATE STRATUS TONIGHT...KCOU
HAS ALREADY BOUNCED DOWN TO LIFR...THEN BACK UP TWICE. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THRU SUNRISE. ALSO...LOW LEVEL
JET IS HELPING TO FORCE MORE STORMS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POPPING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MO AS WELL. WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THE AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO
BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
458 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-121000-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
458 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
334 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

MOZ018-019-026-027-110915-
KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-SHELBY MO-
334 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN KNOX...WESTERN LEWIS...
NORTHERN SHELBY AND NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 334 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES EAST OF ATLANTA...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF LA PLATA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...EDINA...PLEVNA...KNOX
CITY...STEFFENVILLE...LA BELLE...LEWISTOWN...HURDLAND...NOVELTY...
LEONARD...BETHEL AND NEWARK.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

GLASS