Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1114 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

.UPDATE...
/842 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH LARGE MCS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE AND DEVELOP EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ALINGING FROM
NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...OR ROUGHLY THE I-70
CORRIDOR. I AM VERY CONCERNED THAT IF THIS MATERIALIZES WE WILL
SEE WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING FROM COLUMBIA TO
ST. LOUIS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS AREA WAS HARD HIT THIS MORNING
WITH A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN AND NEEDLESS TO SAY
THE SOIL IS SATURATED.

CVKING

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/433 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/
WELL...IT RAINED...AND RAINED...AND RAINED THIS MORNING. WFO LSX
MEASURED 3.05 INCHES AT 100 PM FROM THE MCS. HAVENT SEEN RAIN
LIKE THAT SINCE IKE LAST YEAR. MANY FLOOD RELATED PROBLEMS WERE
REPORTED ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY THAT WAS
JUST ROUND ONE. OPERATIONAL GFS AND NAM ARE INSISTENT THAT ANOTHER
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS WILL ROLL EAST OUT OF KANSAS TONIGHT. HPC
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI RIGHT
IN THE CROSSHAIRS. CANT ARGUE WITH THEIR LOGIC. BOTH OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING TREMENDOUS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE
BISTATE REGION ON THE NOSE OF A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT
AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY DEMONSTRATED A REMARKABLE ABILITY
TO PRODUCE RIDICULOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN TODAY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
IS THAT CELLS FIRING IN KANSAS ATTM WILL FORM INTO A LINE WHICH
WILL ROLL EAST PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS KANSAS AND PARTS OF
WESTERN MISSOURI. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THE FURTHER EAST
THE MCS GETS AS IT OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY. THE MCS LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS
THE LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT AND RESULTING TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKELY...SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FROM 900 PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH ORGANIZED CONVECTION THERE WILL BE IF WERE LOCKED
IN THE CLOUDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DYING MCS.  NAM REGENERATES
QUITE A LOT OF INSTABILITY THO...SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING INTO
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS TUESDAY.  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AS A
DECENT THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  IN
FACT...TEMPS ON THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BE THE HOTTEST YET
THIS YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.  DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S COULD PRODUCE HEAT INDEX READINGS THAT BREAK THE CENTURY MARK
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR TOO.  THIS IS ALL LOADING THE
ATMOSPHERE UP FOR FRIDAY...

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS SENSIBLE WX FORCED BY APCHG SW TROF ON
FRIDAY. 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUN SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX ON
FRIDAY AFTN/EVE WITH 1200-2600 J/KG OF CAPE...AT LEAST 35KTS OF
0-6KM SHEAR...FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND FORCING FROM SFC
COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE MOS POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
UPWARDS FOR FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AND LAST 2 GFS RUNS MAKE A STRONG CASE
FOR INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL POPS...THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY SINCE THE EVENT IS 4 DAYS OUT. THEREFORE...FELT IT WOULD
BE PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN CHC POPS FOR FRIDAY AND DID NOT ATTEMPT TO
TIME OUT FROPA IN TEMP/DEWPOINT/WX GRIDS. RIDGING BUILDS IN TO THE
SRN CONUS ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEEKEND HIGHS EXPECTED
DUE TO FROPA AND WET GROUND. ATTM NOT OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY DUE TO H5 RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD HOWEVER WILL
KEEP INHERITED CHC CLIMO POPS FOR FCST CONSISTENCY AND COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

CARNEY...SHORT TERM
KANOFSKY...LONG TERM

&&

.AVIATION...
/1102 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LARGE MCS WILL MOVE EWD THRU THE TAF SITES LT
TGT AND TUE MRNG. TSRA SHOULD MOVE INTO COU ARND 06Z TUE...THEN
INTO UIN...STL AND SUS FM 08Z-09Z TUE. AS THE LOW LVLS STABILIZE
AND THE MCS WKNS AS IT MOVES FURTHER EWD THE PCPN SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHRA BY 11-13Z TUE. THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE E-SE OF THE TAF SITES BY LT MRNG WITH GRADUAL CLRG.
SELY SFC WNDS SHOULD VEER ARND TO A SWLY DIRECTION BY TUE AFTN AS
THE MCS MOVES E-SE OF THE TAF SITES AND THE STNRY FNT ACRS CNTRL MO
LIFTS NEWD AS A WRMFNT.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-
     KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-
     MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST.
     FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
     WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
     BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
     IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
838 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-161200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
838 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY AS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO
LOCALLY 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY SEVERE WEATHER ANY FLOODING REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
100 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TIPTON                  38.65N 92.78W
06/16/2009                   MONITEAU           MO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERE WIND GUSTS REPORTED IN TIPTON AND CALIFORNIA.
            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED IN TIPTON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902385

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
102 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 AM     FLOOD            OFALLON                38.78N 90.71W
06/16/2009                   ST. CHARLES        MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY P IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING OF PERUQUE CREEK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902386

CVKING