Areal Flood Warning 28, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
635 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/450 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009/

MCS CONTINUES TO TRACK EWD THIS MRNG AIDED BY A S/W EJECTING OUT
OF THE PLAINS. THE LARGE COLD POOL AND LLJ HAVE ALLOWED YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E THIS MRNG. THESE TSRA WILL HELP REINFORCE THE
SFC BOUNDARY AND PUSH IT FURTHER SWD FOR TDA. WILL THEREFORE KEEP
FFA GOING FOR THIS MRNG.

MODELS KEEP THIS BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.
SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY BE TOO CAPPED TO ALLOW
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT. WITH LLJ
FORCING...THIS MAY ALLOW THE SFC BOUNDARY TO BECOME ACTIVE ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE SOMEWHAT LOW POPS GOING ATTM AS SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL END UP.

UPA RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER TMW...HELPING KEEP PRECIP CHCS
DOWN. WITH 700MB TEMPS OF 12C AND HIGHER ACROSS CENTRAL
MO...EXPECT ANY TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN IA AND BUILD SE AS THE
LLJ INTENSIFIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPS ON THURS. 16/00Z MODELS INDICATE UPA
RIDGE WILL BE MORE FLATTENED THAN PROGD YESTERDAY. STILL...MODELS
AGREE PUSHING 21C TO 24C 850MB TEMPS INTO THE AREA. WITH MOS
GUIDE PROG MID 90S FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS...SEE NO REASON TO GO
COOLER ATTM. SFC WINDS SHUD BE OUT OF THE SW WITH SUNNY SKIES.

FOR FRI AND BEYOND...NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREV FCST. DID
INCREASE POPS FOR FRI. MED RANGE MDLS AGREE WITH UPA RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. WITH TROF CURRENTLY
ALONG WRN COAST BEING THE WX MAKER FOR FRI WITH A CDFNT PASSING
THRU THE CWA FRI EVENING. THIS FNT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
/635 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A PAIR OF MCS MOVING THRU THE FA ATTM WITH THIS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TAF SITES BY 16Z. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO RECOVER ITS INSTABILITY BY AFTN...AND AS THE CDFNT
MOVES SEWD THRU THE FA LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR
NEW TSRA TO DEVELOP. MUCH OF THE TIME WE ARE EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND TSRA AS WELL AS WITH BETTER CU COVERAGE AROUND KUIN LATER
TODAY. WITH LGT/VRBL SFC WINDS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE CDFNT AND
RECENT RAINS...LOOK FOR SOME FOG TO FORM.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-
     KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-
     MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST.
     FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
     WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
     BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
     IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
533 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-171200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
533 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH OR
GREATER OR ANY OBSERVED FLOODING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
739 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE MANCHESTER         38.58N 90.50W
06/16/2009  M3.15 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR TOTAL...COCORAHS OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902403

JP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
812 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE WELDON SPRING     38.73N 90.60W
06/16/2009  M3.03 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            24 HOUR AMOUNT ...

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902405

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
814 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W ST. PETERS          38.78N 90.64W
06/16/2009  M3.64 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            24 HOUR AMOUNT ...

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902406

SIPPRELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
814 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

MOZ072-073-084-099-161400-
CRAWFORD MO-IRON MO-REYNOLDS MO-WASHINGTON MO-
814 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...IRON AND REYNOLDS COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

AT 813 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
CHERRYVILLE TO 12 MILES NORTH OF EMINENCE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BUNKER...
  VIBURNUM...
  COURTOIS...
  OATES...
  REYNOLDS...
  ELLINGTON...
  BELLEVIEW...
  GLOVER...
  ANNAPOLIS...
  DAVISVILLE...
  CENTERVILLE...
  BLACK...
  BELGRADE...
  LESTERVILLE...
  CALEDONIA...
  GRANITE...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
848 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     FLOOD            WELDON SPRING           38.72N 90.65W
06/16/2009                   ST. CHARLES        MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PART OF WULFRUM ROAD ACROSS FROM I40 IS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902407

KANOFSKY