Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WGUS73 KLSX 030029
FFSLSX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
729 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

MOC111-127-205-030041-
/O.CAN.KLSX.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-090603T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARION MO-SHELBY MO-LEWIS MO-
729 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LEWIS...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY AND NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE 
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH AND MIDDLE FABIUS 
RIVERS IN EWING MISSOURI WERE BEGINNING TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.  
IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.


LAT...LON 4009 9151 4000 9149 3998 9147 3991 9144
      3981 9191 3995 9196 4001 9196 4014 9153

$$

SIPPRELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/408 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009/
Q-STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS SOUTHERN PUSH WILL BE DUE TO CONVECTION OR
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS THE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO MOVES
THROUGH KANSAS TO THE MO/AR BORDER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
REGARDLESS...ALL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
MAY NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL GIVE IT
PLENTY OF TIME TO RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.  THINK RAIN WILL START OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS.
GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS LOOK MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000J/KG OF
CAPE AND LITTLE OR NO CAP THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THINK STORMS WILL FORM UP
INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...AND THE
BULK 0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS PRETTY PITIFUL...SO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY DROP OFF THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.  POTENTIAL
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MCS AND PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN.  HPC HAS OUTLOOKED PARTS OF THE
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
POTENTIAL SEEMS HIGHEST.  HAVE KEPT RAIN IN THE FORECAST OUT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.  GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PRETTY HIGH QPF BULLSEYES OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
WELL CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY RAIN THAT FAR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH
IS WELL INTO ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BY THAT TIME...BUT THOUGH IT
BEST TO KEEP SOME POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAIN.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY.  ALL MODELS DRY US OUT FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH SEASONABLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  HAVE
PRETTY MUCH KEPT THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS-IS.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WITH A WEAKER CAP ON TAP FOR TODAY AND
CONTINUAL MIXING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ERRUPTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MO-IA BORDER. WILL MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY AS TSRA HAS IMPACTED KTBN WITH 1 3/4 SM AND
40KT GUSTS. FOR THE EXTENDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD IMPACTING KUIN AROUND 22Z...THRU KCOU BY 23Z...AND
LOOKING AT AN ARRIVAL TIME OF AROUND 3Z FOR KSUS- KSTL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT CIGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR ALL TAF LOCALES. SHOWERY WEATHER SHOULD
DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH ALL WET WEATHER ANTICIPATED
OUT OF THE BI-STATE REGION AROUND 12Z ON WEDNESDAY. LOW MVFR CIGS
SHOULD LIFT FOR KUIN THRU THE MIDDAY HOURS...WITH KCOU-KSTL-KSUS
REMAINING SOCKED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT.

SIPPRELL

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KNOX-LEWIS-
     MARION-MONROE-SHELBY.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-MONITEAU-RALLS.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
531 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031045-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
531 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS CONTINUING ALONG THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS
RIVER. PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER CLOSELY TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND BE READY FOR
IMMEDIATE ACTIVATION SHOULD A WATCH BE ISSUED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE CARLINVILLE        39.33N  89.81W
06/02/2009  E50 MPH          MACOUPIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0345 PM     HAIL             5 NE CARLINVILLE        39.33N  89.81W
06/02/2009  E0.25 INCH       MACOUPIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902161
EVENT NUMBER LSX0902162

JPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     HAIL             CAMP POINT              40.04N  91.07W
06/02/2009  M0.75 INCH       ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902163

JPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
349 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             4 SE SPARTA             38.11N  89.66W
06/02/2009  E0.25 INCH       RANDOLPH           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902165

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TRENTON                 38.61N  89.68W
06/02/2009                   CLINTON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND SOME POWER LINES DOWN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
            TRENTON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902166

JPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE CARLINVILLE        39.32N  89.83W
06/02/2009                   MACOUPIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0350 PM     HAIL             4 NE CARLINVILLE        39.32N  89.83W
06/02/2009  M0.50 INCH       MACOUPIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902168
EVENT NUMBER LSX0902169

JPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     HAIL             KIRKWOOD                38.58N  90.42W
06/02/2009  E0.50 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0902170

JP