Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1255 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
1137 AM CDT

OBVIOUSLY MANY CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR IS
AGGRESSIVELY PUSHING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
NEAR UIN. MAX SFC PRESSURE FALLS ARE LOCATED JUST WEST OF
BLOOMINGTON SUPPORTING NORTHEAST TRACK THAT WOULD LIKELY TAKE SFC
LOW THROUGH CLOSE TO CHICAGO. WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS
WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES HAVE BEEN PLACED UNDER A TORNADO WATCH
THAT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AT
THE CURRENT TIME IS QUITE MARGINAL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CWA...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS WARMING WITH NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
WARM SECTOR POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS
BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 0-3 SRH ALSO
INCREASES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO SFC WARM FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES ALSO OBVIOUSLY QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...AND RISK OF SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST UNTIL COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED ZONES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO INCLUDE CONVECTIVE/WIND HEADLINES. IN ADDITION...MANY
AREAS HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
SATURDAY AM...AND ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

MARSILI

&&

.AVIATION...
1245 PM CDT

1800 UTC TAFS...CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH INTENSIFYING SPRING
STORM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN IL. MAIN CONCERNS ARE LOW CIGS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY AFTERNOON TRANSITIONING TO A STRONG WIND
CONCERN MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SURFACE LOW NOW JUST WEST OF PIA...WILL MOVE ACROSS CHICAGO BY
AROUND 21Z...THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI THIS EVENING.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA WITH
BAND OF INTENSE STORMS FROM DKB TO PNT. WITH COOL ENE SURFACE
WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER
ORD...MDW...AND DPA NEXT TWO HOURS. THE COOL EAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
KEEP CIGS DOWN TO IFR OR LIFR AND LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT TO HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. AS LOW PASSES DIRECTLY OVER CHICAGO WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE OVER DPA AND ORD. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
BRIEFLY THROUGH GYY AND JUST BARELY TO MDW...BRINGING WINDS AROUND
TO THE SE AND EVENTUALLY SW. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BY LATE
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SW AND INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OVER 30...ESPECIALLY MDW AND GYY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
COME IN AROUND 00Z-01Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AND CONTINUING TO
GUST AROUND 30 KTS INTO EARLY EVENING. AS LOW PULLS OUT WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.

RFD WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOW AND WILL MOSTLY SEE HEAVY RAIN
AND LOW CIGS THIS AFTN WITH POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. WIND
WILL TRANSITION FROM NE TO NNW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW INTO
EARLY EVENING BUT CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER N THEN NE
MONDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KTS BY THEN.

ALLSOPP

&&

.MARINE...
711 AM CDT

COUPLE ROUGH DAYS AHEAD ON THE LAKE AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. FIRST STORM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TOWARD EVENING. WHILE LOW IS NOT
OVERLY DEEP AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WILL NOT BE ALL
THAT STRONG...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING VERY RAPIDLY AND BEGIN TO
FILL AFTER CROSS THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY STRONG
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO THE WINDS WITH GUSTS WELL INTO GALE FORCE
RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL VERY RAPIDLY
SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS LIKELY
DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE BY 06Z OR SHORTLY AFTER.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE INTENSE STORM TRACKING WEST OF THE
LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING AT THE RATE
OF 1MB PER HOUR IS FORECAST FOR AN 18-24 HOURS PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAPID DEEPENING...VERY QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...AND
STRONG HIGH MOVING IN ALL POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORM FORCE
WINDS OVER THE LAKE. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS TO STORM FORCE
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHERE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE THE
GREATEST...THOUGH CHANCE REALLY DOES EXIST EVEN OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. STILL TOO EARLY FOR A STORM WATCH BUT HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
     ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022 UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 7
     PM SUNDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
     LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
     LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...5 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 5 PM SUNDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1103 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
091615-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
1103 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009 /1203 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW MAY PRODUCE:
     HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
     DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 65 MPH.
     ISOLATED TORNADOES.

   NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS IS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF
   INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
   DIMINISH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

  STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...THOUGH THE
  STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF A CHICAGO TO PERU LINE.

  DISCUSSION:

  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
  LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID AFTERNOON. A
  WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND
  BRING WARM...MOIST AIR ALONG WITH IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
  OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
  THIS WARM SECTOR...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME SUPER CELLULAR
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
  TORNADOES...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

  ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED DIMINISH BY EVENING AS A COLD
  FRONT COMES THROUGH. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
  BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

  FLOODING IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW LYING
  AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR STREAMS AND CREEKS. IN
  ADDITION...PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE...ILLINOIS AND FOX RIVERS
  WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
  PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDWEST. SOME OF
  THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

  WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
  WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

  PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE...ILLINOIS AND FOX RIVERS WILL REMAIN
  IN FLOOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-091615-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
1103 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HAZARDOUS WINDS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ILLINOIS
SHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS ALL THE NEARSHORE
WATERS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WINDS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-091615-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TOW RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
1103 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KNOTS ARE LIKELY VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

MARSILI

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