Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

THE EVER SO SLIGHTEST CAP AT 650MB IS KEEPING THE CU FIELD FROM
EXPLODING INTO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEWD-MOVING COOL
FRONT...NOW LOCATED ACROSS OUR FAR NRN CWA BORDER. HOWEVER A FEW
CELLS ARE BREAKING THROUGH...AND CAN BE SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER
WASHINGTON COUNTY INDIANA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPARK
SCT CONVECTION ALONG IT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR T-STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
FRONT SAGS SEWD. AHEAD OF THIS THOUGH OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...HEAT INDICES THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 100S
SO CAUTION IS SUGGESTED IF WORKING OUTDOORS.

CONCERNING PRECIP...GIVEN THE LARGE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...EXPECT
THAT EVEN WITH SLIGHT/WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SCATTERED STORMS WILL
POP SOON...WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE BEST DYNAMICS
ARE OVER THE FAR ERN/NERN CWA...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY IS OVER WRN
CWA. SINCE IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST LOCATION ALONG THE
FRONT...WILL JUST CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH SINCE THESE AREAS COULD SEE PULSE STORMS AHEAD OF
FRONT...AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MUCH LATER ALONG THE ACTUAL
FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH TO THE SE AND LAY OUT
NEAR THE TN BORDER BY ROUGHLY 09Z. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OCCUR. HAVE
THIS EVERYWHERE IN THE GRIDS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY ANY
PLACE THAT SEES LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY...A SHORT BREATHER FROM THE RAIN WILL OCCUR AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR NE BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY BUT WILL STILL BE HOT WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 INTO THE MID
90S W/SW. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FROM THE NW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION AND APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
ALSO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT A 500MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DRY AND COOLER CANADIAN AIR FILTERING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER
60S. THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LOW SETTLES FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL HAVE TO RECONSIDER PRECIPITATION.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
THE GFS EJECTING THE LOW MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF AND
SUBSEQUENTLY DROPPING A COLD FRONT IN HERE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

A WEAK FRONT ACROSS S-CNTRL INDIANA WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH SRN IN
AND CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCT TSRA SHOULD ERUPT ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY GIVEN THE LARGE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL CARRY
SCT-BKN LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH VCTS
AT LEX AND BWG. THE FRONT IS ALMOST TO THE OHIO RIVER...SO MAY LEAVE
PRECIP OUT OF SDFS TAF...OR AT LEAST TS. MAYBE WORTH A MENTION OF
CB/VCSH THOUGH. SINCE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED THINK VICINITY
WORDING OR A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE THE WAY TO GO. BUT IF ANY STORM
FORMS AT OR INVOF TERMINAL...GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40 KTS WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION. AND AS ALWAYS...ANY TS COULD CAUSE IFR VSBYS
AND MVFR CIGS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
NNE. THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AND LAY OUT AROUND SRN KY...SO BWG MAY
STILL SEE SHRA/TS TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. AFTER 06Z...SDF BUT
ESPECIALLY LEX AND BWG WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG...SO VSBYS
MAY DROP INTO THE IFR CAT TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR/VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....EES
AVIATION.....AL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
455 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-270830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
455 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009 /355 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY AS A COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE
BIGGEST THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FROM
ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. AS WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS...DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN OR
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO LOCAL MEDIA OR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

AL/EES

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
521 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

INZ090-262200-
HARRISON-
521 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING HARRISON COUNTY...

AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CORYDON...OR 20 MILES WEST OF LOUISVILLE...
AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR NEW MIDDLETOWN AROUND 525 PM EDT.
  NEAR DOGWOOD AROUND 550 PM EDT.
  NEAR LACONIA AROUND 600 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
522 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

KYZ037-042-043-262145-
BOURBON-HARRISON-NICHOLAS-
522 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN OVER EASTERN
HARRISON COUNTY KENTUCKY...

AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CYNTHIANA...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FALMOUTH...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND TWO INCHES PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
HALF MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR ODDVILLE AROUND 535 PM EDT.
  NEAR COLVILLE AROUND 545 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

NF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
523 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

KYZ037-042-043-262145-
BOURBON-HARRISON-NICHOLAS-
523 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN AFFECTING EASTERN
HARRISON COUNTY KENTUCKY...

AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CYNTHIANA...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FALMOUTH...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND TWO INCHES PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
HALF MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR ODDVILLE AROUND 535 PM EDT.
  NEAR COLVILLE AROUND 545 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

NF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
524 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW SADIEVILLE         38.37N  84.57W
06/26/2009                   SCOTT              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DOUBLE COLVERT IMPASSABLE WITH 6 8 INCHES OVER THE
            ROADWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900134

JMW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
535 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

KYZ038-045-262200-
NELSON-SPENCER-
535 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING SPENCER AND
NELSON COUNTIES...

AT 533 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TAYLORSVILLE...OR 26 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LOUISVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR WAKEFIELD AROUND 545 PM EDT.
  NEAR CHAPLIN AROUND 600 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AL