Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

THE EVER SO SLIGHTEST CAP AT 650MB IS KEEPING THE CU FIELD FROM
EXPLODING INTO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEWD-MOVING COOL
FRONT...NOW LOCATED ACROSS OUR FAR NRN CWA BORDER. HOWEVER A FEW
CELLS ARE BREAKING THROUGH...AND CAN BE SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER
WASHINGTON COUNTY INDIANA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPARK
SCT CONVECTION ALONG IT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR T-STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
FRONT SAGS SEWD. AHEAD OF THIS THOUGH OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...HEAT INDICES THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 100S
SO CAUTION IS SUGGESTED IF WORKING OUTDOORS.

CONCERNING PRECIP...GIVEN THE LARGE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...EXPECT
THAT EVEN WITH SLIGHT/WEAKENING CAP ALOFT...SCATTERED STORMS WILL
POP SOON...WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS FROM WET MICROBURSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE BEST DYNAMICS
ARE OVER THE FAR ERN/NERN CWA...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY IS OVER WRN
CWA. SINCE IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST LOCATION ALONG THE
FRONT...WILL JUST CARRY CHC POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH SINCE THESE AREAS COULD SEE PULSE STORMS AHEAD OF
FRONT...AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MUCH LATER ALONG THE ACTUAL
FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH TO THE SE AND LAY OUT
NEAR THE TN BORDER BY ROUGHLY 09Z. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT AS CALMING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OCCUR. HAVE
THIS EVERYWHERE IN THE GRIDS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE LIKELY ANY
PLACE THAT SEES LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY...A SHORT BREATHER FROM THE RAIN WILL OCCUR AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR NE BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY. WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY BUT WILL STILL BE HOT WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 INTO THE MID
90S W/SW. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FROM THE NW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION AND APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SUNDAY MORNING AND TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE CLOSE TO TWO INCHES. DEPENDING ON TIMING...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY
ALSO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT A 500MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DRY AND COOLER CANADIAN AIR FILTERING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER
60S. THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LOW SETTLES FARTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL HAVE TO RECONSIDER PRECIPITATION.

AFTER WEDNESDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
THE GFS EJECTING THE LOW MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF AND
SUBSEQUENTLY DROPPING A COLD FRONT IN HERE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

A WEAK FRONT ACROSS S-CNTRL INDIANA WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH SRN IN
AND CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCT TSRA SHOULD ERUPT ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY GIVEN THE LARGE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL CARRY
SCT-BKN LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH VCTS
AT LEX AND BWG. THE FRONT IS ALMOST TO THE OHIO RIVER...SO MAY LEAVE
PRECIP OUT OF SDFS TAF...OR AT LEAST TS. MAYBE WORTH A MENTION OF
CB/VCSH THOUGH. SINCE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED THINK VICINITY
WORDING OR A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE THE WAY TO GO. BUT IF ANY STORM
FORMS AT OR INVOF TERMINAL...GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40 KTS WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION. AND AS ALWAYS...ANY TS COULD CAUSE IFR VSBYS
AND MVFR CIGS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
NNE. THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AND LAY OUT AROUND SRN KY...SO BWG MAY
STILL SEE SHRA/TS TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT. AFTER 06Z...SDF BUT
ESPECIALLY LEX AND BWG WILL EXPERIENCE AT LEAST LIGHT FOG...SO VSBYS
MAY DROP INTO THE IFR CAT TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR/VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM....EES
AVIATION.....AL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-270830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009 /230 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW
100S FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY AREAS WEST
OF I-65. USE CAUTION IF WORKING OUTDOORS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A COOL FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY
SUNDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN OR
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO LOCAL MEDIA OR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

AL/EES

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1232 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

INZ076-083-084-089-KYZ023-024-026-027-061-062-070>072-262100-
ORANGE IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...
HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...
MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN
1232 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009 /1132 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2009/

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. THUS...LIMITED OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS RECOMMENDED TODAY
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM FRENCH
LICK INDIANA...TO HARDINSBURG AND BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY.

TRY TO STAY INDOORS AND OUT OF THE SUN. IF YOU MUST BE
OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND CHECK UP ON
OTHERS...INCLUDING THE ELDERLY...CHILDREN AND PETS.

AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

KYZ054-065-066-262030-
CASEY-MARION-TAYLOR-
348 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AFFECTING WESTERN
CASEY...SOUTHERN MARION AND EASTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES...

AT 345 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAMPBELLSVILLE...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

CONTINUOUS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR MANNSVILLE AROUND 405 PM EDT.
  NEAR YUMA AROUND 420 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. STAY OFF OF THE
PHONE AND INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

AL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
418 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

INZ090-091-KYZ030-262045-
FLOYD-HARRISON-JEFFERSON-
418 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING NORTHERN HARRISON COUNTY...

AT 415 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF CORYDON...OR 18 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR CRANDALL AROUND 425 PM EDT.
  NEAR EDWARDSVILLE AROUND 430 PM EDT.
  NEAR LANESVILLE AROUND 435 PM EDT.
  NEAR BRIDGEPORT AROUND 445 PM EDT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
125 AND 137.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
1 AND 7.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
105 AND 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

EES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
422 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

KYZ035-036-040-262100-
FRANKLIN-SCOTT-WOODFORD-
422 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AFFECTING EASTERN
FRANKLIN AND WESTERN SCOTT COUNTIES...

AT 420 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF FRANKFORT...AND MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR SWITZER AROUND 435 PM EDT.
  NEAR SAND LICK AROUND 440 PM EDT.
  NEAR FORKS OF ELKHORN AROUND 445 PM EDT.
  NEAR DUCKERS AROUND 455 PM EDT.
  NEAR MILLVILLE AROUND 500 PM EDT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
53 AND 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

EES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
429 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

KYZ054-065-066-077-262115-
ADAIR-CASEY-MARION-TAYLOR-
429 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...STRONG SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS TO TAYLOR...ADAIR...AND CASEY COUNTIES...

AT 426 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 8 CENTERED MILES EAST OF
CAMPBELLSVILLE...OR 36 MILES NORTHWEST OF SOMERSET...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND TWO INCHES PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
HALF MILE...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

JSD