Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
249 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...

SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PLOW EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AS THE LINE PASSES THROUGH. NOT MUCH BEHIND THE LINE...A
FAIRLY MINIMAL STRATIFORM CLOUD SHIELD AND MODELS SUGGEST JUST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP IF ANYTHING.

SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.

ON WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE CROSSING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO THE LMK CWFA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA.
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL PRESENT A WIND GUST THREAT WITH THE
STORMS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...

UPPER AIR FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A DEEP AMPLIFIED TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A RIDGE OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND A
SHALLOW TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PREFERRED
ECMWF SHOWS SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN AS THE WESTERN
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP AND OVER THIS CENTRAL RIDGE. BY LATE
THURSDAY...THE 500MB RIDGE ORIGINALLY OVER TEXAS WILL EXTEND ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING OVER MISSOURI AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY...THE TRACK OF THE REPEATED CONVECTIVE EPISODES THAT HAVE
AFFECTED US OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND IOWA. A DEVELOPING CAP AT 700MB WILL END CONVECTION
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ONE OR MORE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY DIVE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM HINTS
AT THIS BY TAKING EARLIER OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE THURSDAY. WILL THUS INSERT A CHANCE OF
PRECIP FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND WILL FOLLOW...PERHAPS SHAVING A DEGREE OR
TWO OFF THIS TO ACCOUNT FOR WET SOIL AND EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION.

ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND A SHARPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRIDAY ACROSS INDIANA AND
ILLINOIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER
DURING THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SPEED OF THE FRONT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SUNDAY...WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A CLOSED LOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND. A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY BRING DRIER AIR AND SEVERAL DRY DAYS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE COOLEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST...SO EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

OF FIRST CONCERN IS LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY. WILL TIME THIS LINE INTO EACH TAF SITE. AS FOR THE
STRENGTH...WILL GO WITH GENERALLY WHAT HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THE
LINE SO FAR. WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE WEATHER AT EACH TAF SITE FOR
AN HOUR AS THE LINE PASSES THROUGH...WITH LINGERING TSRA BEHIND IT
FOR A FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE TAFS
DRY. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG AT BWG AND LEX TOWARDS DAWN IN
SOGGY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE SOAKED GROUND. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE SOUTH OF SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ030>037-042-043-171945-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
333 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009 /233 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
LATE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ023>029-038>041-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-171945-
HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-
BULLITT KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-
MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-
HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-
SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-
RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
333 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009 /233 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF POWERFUL THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END WHEN THE LINE
REACHES THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA AROUND 7PM EDT/6PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
LATE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LOUISVILLE.

13/JSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
341 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCOTTSVILLE             36.75N  86.20W
06/16/2009                   ALLEN              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN. LIGHTNING STRUCK POWER POLE KNOCKED TRAFFIC
            LIGHT INTO INTERSECTION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK0900022

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
341 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KYZ024-025-028-162015-
BRECKINRIDGE-HARDIN-MEADE-
341 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...STRONG STORMS MOVING ACROSS BRECKINRIDGE...HARDIN AND MEADE
COUNTIES...

AT 340 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES SOUTH OF
BRANDENBURG TO 14 MILES WEST OF ELIZABETHTOWN TO 13 MILES NORTHEAST
OF LEITCHFIELD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 39 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LOUISVILLE TO 42 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE TO 46 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LOUISVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR ELIZABETHTOWN AROUND 405 PM EDT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
91 AND 94.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 136 AND 137.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

JBS

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