Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
249 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...

SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PLOW EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AS THE LINE PASSES THROUGH. NOT MUCH BEHIND THE LINE...A
FAIRLY MINIMAL STRATIFORM CLOUD SHIELD AND MODELS SUGGEST JUST SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP IF ANYTHING.

SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.

ON WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE CROSSING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO THE LMK CWFA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA.
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL PRESENT A WIND GUST THREAT WITH THE
STORMS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...

UPPER AIR FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A DEEP AMPLIFIED TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A RIDGE OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND A
SHALLOW TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PREFERRED
ECMWF SHOWS SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN AS THE WESTERN
TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO MOVE UP AND OVER THIS CENTRAL RIDGE. BY LATE
THURSDAY...THE 500MB RIDGE ORIGINALLY OVER TEXAS WILL EXTEND ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING OVER MISSOURI AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY...THE TRACK OF THE REPEATED CONVECTIVE EPISODES THAT HAVE
AFFECTED US OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND IOWA. A DEVELOPING CAP AT 700MB WILL END CONVECTION
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ONE OR MORE NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY DIVE SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM HINTS
AT THIS BY TAKING EARLIER OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE THURSDAY. WILL THUS INSERT A CHANCE OF
PRECIP FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL
INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND WILL FOLLOW...PERHAPS SHAVING A DEGREE OR
TWO OFF THIS TO ACCOUNT FOR WET SOIL AND EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION.

ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND A SHARPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.

A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRIDAY ACROSS INDIANA AND
ILLINOIS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER
DURING THE LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. WILL
CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SPEED OF THE FRONT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SUNDAY...WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A CLOSED LOW
OVER NEW ENGLAND. A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY BRING DRIER AIR AND SEVERAL DRY DAYS
BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE COOLEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST...SO EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

OF FIRST CONCERN IS LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN KENTUCKY. WILL TIME THIS LINE INTO EACH TAF SITE. AS FOR THE
STRENGTH...WILL GO WITH GENERALLY WHAT HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THE
LINE SO FAR. WILL KEEP THE WORST OF THE WEATHER AT EACH TAF SITE FOR
AN HOUR AS THE LINE PASSES THROUGH...WITH LINGERING TSRA BEHIND IT
FOR A FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE TAFS
DRY. WILL INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG AT BWG AND LEX TOWARDS DAWN IN
SOGGY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE SOAKED GROUND. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE SOUTH OF SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-170830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009 /1030 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE OUTLOOK
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
LINE OF STORMS.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

THE STORMS WILL ALSO DROP LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAIN AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES IN AREAS THAT FLOOD EASILY.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AS ALWAYS...SPOTTERS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
215 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2009

KYZ023-024-026-027-061-062-070>073-161900-
ALLEN-BRECKINRIDGE-BUTLER-EDMONSON-GRAYSON-HANCOCK-LOGAN-OHIO-
SIMPSON-WARREN-
115 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2009

...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO AREA BETWEEN
130 AND 230 PM CDT...

AT 206 PM EDT/106 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
OWENSBORO TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

THIS WILL MOVE INTO HAWESVILLE TO HARTFORD TO MORGANTOWN TO
RUSSELLVILLE BETWEEN 130 AND 200 PM CDT.  WINDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS LINE.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE...RIVER...OR SWIMMING POOL...GET OUT OF THE
WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW. DONT BE CAUGHT ON
THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

JDG