Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

MESO UPDATE...

A THIN LINE OF STORMS HAS BEEN PRODUCING SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE
INCLUDING G61 IN CHRISTIAN COUNTY OVER THE PAST HOUR. AMAZING
PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 TO 4 MB OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS DEMONSTRATE THE
STRONG MID LEVEL JET AND DEEP SFC LOW NEAR STL. WE HAVE SEVERAL SVR
TSRA WARNINGS OUT FOR VERY LOW TOP CONVECTION 18-23K. INSIDE OF THE
LINE ARE SOME INDIVIDUAL BOWING SEGMENTS WHICH MAY PRODUCE ISOL
TOR.

WIND THREAT REMAINS STRONG WITH THIS LINE...AND GRADIENT WINDS FOR
THE HIGH WIND WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD TOO.

.NEAR TERM (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

NO CHANGES TO THE FCST EXCEPT FOR THE NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA...FOR A NARROW LINE OF THIN CONVECTION THAT HAS WEAK
THERMODYNAMICS...BUT HIGH KINEMATICS.  PAH IS ISSUING SVRS FOR THE
SRN EDGE OF THE FAST MOVING LINE...WITH EMBEDDED BOOKEND VORTICIES
WHICH COULD CAUSE ISOL QUICK TORNADO SPINUPS AS THE LINE MOVES
EAST.  THERE IS A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH TREE AND
PROPERTY DAMAGE ALONG WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES...BUT LACK OF
INSTABILITY COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH LIGHTNING...BUT EVEN
A LINE OF SHRA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN 60+ MPH WINDS.

GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH 25-35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50+.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BE
STRONGEST WITH AND AFTER A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THROUGH I-65
FROM 1PM-3PM EST AND THROUGH INTERSTATE 75 230PM-5PM EST.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG BEHIND THE THIN SQUALL LINE AS DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE WILL MIX WINDS OF 25-40
MPH AND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH TO THE SURFACE INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING
OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING COVERS THIS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THE
HIGHLIGHT THROUGH 10PM EST WEDNESDAY AS IT CURRENTLY EXISTS.

WINDS DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER 10PM EST BUT REMAIN IN THE 15-30 MPH
RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

ZONAL FLOW WILL COVER THE WHOLE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
THURSDAY AS A STRONG JET WILL BISECT THE CONUS FROM CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE DEEP CYCLONE THAT BROUGHT THE
STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL FILL AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD TROUGHS WILL MOVE ASHORE THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THURSDAY. EVENTUALLY...THIS FEATURE
WILL BECOME CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW AND BRING SOME RAIN TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY.

BREEZY WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL EASE UP SOMEWHAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH THURSDAY WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME
LIGHT EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

WITH AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGIN ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM...TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STAY
MILD. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH PERHAPS SATURDAY SHOULD IN A BROAD
SENSE RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER 50S CLOSE TO
TENNESSEE. WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTING QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE NEW ECMWF SHOW A JET MAX PUNCHING EAST ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
LIFT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THE NAM FORECAST IS FARTHER NORTH AND THE DEEPEST
WITH THIS CYCLONE...MOVING A A 998MB LOW ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.  PREFERRED ARE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH
FORECASTS A WEAKER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64.
ALL MODELS SHOW ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG THE
GULF STATES ALONG A RETURNING SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL RESTRICT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LIKELY
PRECIPITATION...BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD UNTIL COLDER
AIR ARRIVES LATE WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE
LOW PASSES EAST. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
SUNDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE COOLER GFS HINTS AT A RAIN
SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL NOT CHANGE THE
ONGOING FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

WINDS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO AVIATION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS ALREADY CLIMBING AT THE SURFACE
AND ARE GUSTING TO NEAR 25KTS...WITH 12-15Z WEDNESDAY LIKELY SEEING
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF WIND DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 15Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY.

WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A 60-75KT JET BUILDS IN AT
5K FT OFF THE SURFACE...WITH WINDS AROUND 50-60KT AROUND 2K FT. THIS
WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AROUND 06Z THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS
ALOFT BEGIN TO DECREASE. SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY...THOUGH GUSTS TO 30KTS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

A LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE IS STILL ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW AND IS ON TRACK TO STRETCH FROM SDF TO BWG DURING
THE 17Z-20Z TIME PERIOD...AND AFFECT LEX AROUND 19Z-22Z. TSRA AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE EVENT STILL LOOK TO OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. THE SQUALL LINE AND ASSOCIATED VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY...BUT AS MENTIONED...STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND
WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY 12Z WEDNESDAY TO 03Z
THURSDAY.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA 12Z WEDNESDAY TO
03Z THURSDAY.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...JDK/JDG
LONG TERM....JSD
AVIATION.....JDK
MESO.........JDG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1145 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-120930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1145 AM EST WED FEB 11 2009 /1045 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 55 TO
60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LINE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT PEAK WIND GUSTS AND ANY INSTANCES
OF WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
200 PM EST WED FEB 11 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TELL CITY               37.95N  86.76W
02/11/2009                   PERRY              IN   DISPATCH

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00244

MRC

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