Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
707 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE WERE THE TIMING OF
THE STRONG CONVECTION MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED
STRONG WRLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. BASICALLY CARRIED THE STORMS
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AT 00Z...AND CLEARING KLFT/KARA BY 05Z.
TIMED THE FRONT SHORTLY AFTER THESE STORMS...ARRIVING BY 02Z AT
KBPT. SHOULD THIS TIMING BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC...AMENDMENTS WILL
FOLLOW. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF TEMPORARY
PERIOD OF CEILINGS BELOW 2K FEET...WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009/

MARINE...WILL ALSO BE UPDATING THE COASTAL FORECAST TO REFLECT
LATEST CHANGE OF A TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 81 INTO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS WEST OF CAMERON AND INCLUDING SABINE LAKE AS WELL AS TO
INCLUDE CALCAIEU LAKE.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009/

UPDATE...SPC COORDINATED A NEW TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 81 UNTIL 8 PM WHICH
WILL COVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS WELL AS CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA, THE NEAR SHORE ZONE AND THE SABINE LAKE ZONE. THIS
WATCH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH NUMBER 77. TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 79 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT DANGLING JUST SOUTH OF KLFK...JUST NORTH OF KPOE
AND KAEX...WITH SVR SUPERCELL TSTM RIDING THE BOUNDARY OVER W LA
NEAR KPOE. THE NEXT SUPERCELL NOW TAKING SHAPE JUST NORTH OF
KHOU...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SE TX WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SVR TSTM WATCH #77 CONTINUES FOR SE TX...WITH TOR WATCH #79
FOR S AND C LA NORTH OF I-10.

EXPECT TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER LA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT...THUS THE HIGHER POPS HERE. THE FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING SE TX SOMETIME AFTER SUNSET AND RACING EASTWARD ACROSS W
LA SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND CLEAR EAST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER BY SUNRISE SAT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND SUN MORNING. WITH WINDS CALMING DOWN SAT
NIGHT AND SUN AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION...TEMPS COULD
REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S NORTH OF US 190.

COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST BY SUN EVENING
AND MON...WITH A SOLID RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHED BY MON. THE NEXT
SYSTEM IN OUR AGGRESSIVE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE OUR REGION BY TUE WITH THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA RETURNING.
WHILE THE GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH AN EXTREMELY DEEP SFC LOW
(989MB) OVER E OK BY NEXT THU...THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE.
FOR THE FORECAST...KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TUE-THU TIME FRAME.

DML

MARINE...
STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE EASTERN ZONES
BY SUNRISE SAT. SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SAT THROUGH 10 AM
SUN FOR THIS STRONG POST FRONTAL FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
BY SUN AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER AND
OVERHEAD SUN EVENING INTO MON MORNING.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  62  41  67  49 /  70   0   0   0  10
KBPT  48  62  40  68  51 /  40   0   0   0  10
KAEX  46  59  37  67  42 /  70   0   0   0  10
KLFT  51  62  41  66  46 /  70   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
527 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-281030-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
527 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE...STRONG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ROTATING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DEVELOPING WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH STRONG STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS THE
LIKELIEST THREAT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINS FROM TRAINING STORMS. WITH
DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINS WITH RATES OF UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR. WITH
THE GROUND IN MANY LOCATIONS SATURATED FROM THE RAIN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND URBAN AREAS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF UP TO 7 TO 9 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
701 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             BEVIL OAKS              30.16N 94.27W
03/27/2009  E1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KKUYPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
714 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             SINGER                  30.65N 93.41W
03/27/2009  E1.50 INCH       BEAUREGARD         LA   PUBLIC

&&

KKUYPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
720 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             CALL                    30.61N 93.87W
03/27/2009  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             TX   PUBLIC

&&

KKUYPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
728 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             LONGVILLE               30.60N 93.23W
03/27/2009  M1.75 INCH       BEAUREGARD         LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KPLC RELAYED PUBLIC REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN
            LONGVILLE.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
740 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             SINGER                  30.65N 93.41W
03/27/2009  M0.88 INCH       BEAUREGARD         LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KPLC-TV RELAY PUBLIC REPORT FROM WEATHER WATCHER IN
            SINGER OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
748 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             RAGLEY                  30.51N 93.23W
03/27/2009  E1.00 INCH       BEAUREGARD         LA   PUBLIC

&&

KKUYPER