Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 032039
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
239 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

NEC069-161-032100-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0216.000000T0000Z-090703T2100Z/
GARDEN NE-SHERIDAN NE-
239 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHERIDAN AND NORTHWESTERN GARDEN COUNTIES...

AT 238 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ANTIOCH...OR 11 MILES EAST OF ALLIANCE...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WICKSON LAKE AND 9 MILES NORTH OF MILES LAKE BY 245 PM MDT...
  LAKESIDE...HERMAN LAKE AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PATTERSON LAKE BY
  300 PM MDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4217 10234 4190 10242 4196 10269 4199 10269
      4200 10271 4208 10271 4208 10274 4209 10275
      4221 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 280DEG 22KT 4209 10264

$$

TLK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND A
SHORT WAVE IS ENTERING THE PANHANDLE SUGGESTING AN EARLY SHOW OF
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEB THIS
EVENING. THE SWODY1 OUTLOOK DELINEATES THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
QUITE WELL COVERING AREA THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY
20. INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH STRONGEST STORMS AND THE AREA
OF CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS ALONG A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR
SRN NEB AND ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NEB. OTHERWISE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE MEAN STORM
MOTION OF EAST AT 20 MPH SUGGESTS THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED TO CELL TRAINING...TOO LIMITED A THREAT TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY NOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT IS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION.

THE NAM AND GFS THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH EITHER SUNDAY MORNING OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS FASTER THAN
THE GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
MONDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND UPPER 80S MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SIZZLING HEAT WAVE DEVELOPS. BUT THERE
IS A CAVEAT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FCST ARE EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE INEVITABLE COLD FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A
BRIEF HEAT WAVE VS A MULTI-DAY EVENT. THUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAYS
FORECAST TEMPS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAYS MAX
TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 90S. NO RAIN IS FCST UNTIL THE FRONT
DROPS IN FRIDAY AS FCST BY THE SLOWER GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS
TO LIFT BRIEFLY AS CONVECTION ROLES EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA STATELINE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH. THE
MOISTURE LADEN AIR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 04/10Z FOR IFR CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLY LIFR AT THE KVTN TERMINAL THROUGH 16Z. MODELS ALL POINT
TOWARD THE LOWER CEILINGS AND INCLUDED IN CURRENT TERMINAL FORECAST
FOR KLBF AND KVTN OVERNIGHT.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

CDC/TLK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-041000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
304 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009 /204 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO REACH SEVERE LIMITS
ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CHAPPELL IN DEUEL COUNTY TO ANSELMO
IN CUSTER COUNTY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING WITH BE
DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WHERE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. AFTER
MONDAY...HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT IN WHEELER COUNTY...TO THEDFORD IN THOMAS
COUNTY...AND TO CHAPPELL IN DEUEL COUNTY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

KECK