Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
309 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
DISTINCT SHORT WAVE CROSSING WY THIS AFTN HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SERN MT AND SWRN SD.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES IN SERN WY
AND ERN COLO WITHOUT SUCCESS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FCST WOULD BE FOR A
MCS TO FORM OFF THE BLACK HILLS THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD MOVE ESE
ALONG OR NEAR THE NEB SD BORDER PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z WITH LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE...MAINLY ACROSS SRN SD. FARTHER SOUTH...NO CAP IS IN
PLACE BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE LESS STEEP
PREVENTING SEVERE STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. THE BLENDED SOLNS OF THE
NAM AND GFS SUGGESTED THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
61 THIS EVENING AND ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 OVERNIGHT. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ELSEWHERE AS A SEPARATE 850MB WARM FRONT IS
FCST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE KS NEB BORDER TONIGHT AND IT APPEARS THE
INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN
NEB BUT ALL MODELS ARE DRY ACROSS SWRN NEB TONIGHT. TWO MCSS COULD
FORM TONIGHT NEAR THE SD AND KS BORDERS. THE SD MCS IS THE MOST
LIKELY OF THE TWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS WY THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS SD FRIDAY PRODUCING
MULTICELL NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH WRN NEB IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN AND CNTL NEB. SPC SUGGESTED SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WRN AND SRN NEB.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG IN A WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND AND AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS NRN KS
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO FUNNEL NWWD ONTO THE WRN HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT ACROSS
THE FCST AREA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS WY AND THROUGH
NEB. HPC SUGGESTED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS WETTER THAN ALL OF THE MODELS WHICH SHOWED A CONSENSUS
OF ABOUT HALF THAT AMOUNT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A HEAT WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTL U.S..
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ACTING TO
DRAW HOT DESERT AIR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THE ATM WILL REMAIN CAPPED DURING THE DAY WITH JUST
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING OR AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN MARCHING INTO THE 90S TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY WITH MID AND UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
BY THURSDAY. NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP
INTO NRN NEB PERHAPS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE THE NEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WARMER AND H10-5 THICKNESSES ARE FCST TO RISE TO
588DM BY NEXT THURSDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE 100F HIGHS SO ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SLIGHT PROBLEMS IN
RESOLVING CONVECTIVE QPF AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WEST ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS. NAM12 IS PICKING UP ON SOME OF THIS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL AT 00Z THIS EVENING.
THEN OVERNIGHT AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES LIFT NORTHEAST CONVECTION
ROLLS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR HIGH
BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH TO INCLUDE THE KVTN TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT FROM 09Z TO 15Z.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

CDC/TLK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-031000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
338 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009 /238 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND SANDHILLS REGION OF WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF REACHING SEVERE LIMITS.
STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE
STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE IN
CHERRY COUNTY...TO NORTH PLATTE IN LINCOLN COUNTY AND OGALLALA IN
KEITH COUNTY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

KECK

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