Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA52 TJSJ 100708
FFWSJU
PRC051-101015-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090210T1015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 AM AST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

  IN PUERTO RICO
     DORADO

* UNTIL 615 AM AST

* AT 256 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ENTERING THE COASTAL AREA OF 
DORADO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE THE FLASH FLOODING 
CONDITIONS THAT ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF 
DORADO AT LEAST THROUGH 515 AM AST EARLY THIS MORNING. 
THEREFORE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF DORADO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF HOURS.  

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 1850 6632 1848 6627 1845 6627 1844 6630

$$

OB

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 100947
FFSSJU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST TUE FEB 10 2009

PRC051-101000-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-090210T1015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DORADO PR-
523 AM AST TUE FEB 10 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR DORADO 
MUNICIPALITY...BUT A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT...

AS OF 500 AM AST...WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY 
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT EARLIER AFFECTED THE MUNICIPALITY OF 
DORADO...HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST HOUR. ONLY...LIGHT RAIN IS 
FALLING AT THIS TIME OVER MUCH OF THE AFFECTED AREA OF NORTHERN 
DORADO.

HOWEVER...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY CONTINUE TO 
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING AS WATER CONTINUES TO RESIDE THIS MORNING. 
THEREFORE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ALLOWED THE FLOOD 
ADVISORY FOR DORADO TO CONTINUE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM 
AST...BUT CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DORADO AREA AT 
THIS TIME.

LAT...LON 1850 6632 1848 6627 1845 6627 1844 6630

$$

OB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1133 PM AST MON FEB 9 2009

.UPDATE...BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS...HAD A VERY ACTIVE EVENING ALONG
THE NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL ZONE. LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM OLD BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MID LEVEL TROUGHING JUST TO OUR WEST AND
UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE...TO PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. WSR-88D TRENDS DURING THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS HAS
BEEN FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE NORTH COAST TO
DIMINISH AND SHIFT OFF THE COAST...WHILE NEW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS. EXPECT THIS MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TO
LINGER AWHILE LONGER BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...BUT WILL
PROBABLY HAVE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING PARTS
OF THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO MOST OF THE NIGHT. INHERITED
SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT WE SENT AN UPDATE TO BOTH TO ALTER WEATHER...SKY
COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN MANY ZONES AND TO JUST KEEP FORECAST
CURRENT WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A
COUPLE OF MINOR ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. AVIATION-WISE...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST LOCAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS...WITH MORE FREQUENT THAN NORMAL MVFR
AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...STRONG AND GUSTY LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS./ BCS

REMAINDER BELOW UNCHANGED FROM THE DAY SHIFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM AST MON FEB 9 2009/

SYNOPSIS...LOW-LVL TROUGH NOW OVR THE MONA PASSAGE BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION MID WEEK BRINGING DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL TROUGH
NOW LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/EASTERN DR...SLOWLY
LIFTING WNW. BEST FORCING STILL REMAINS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVER
THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERN SIDE OF U/L
TROUGH. EXPECT MID TO U/L LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO REMAIN NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...SO POPS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
COAST AND MONA PASSAGE AREA OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...SOMEWHAT DRIER FLOW SHOULD WORK IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW ATLC AT THAT TIME WILL FORCE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CURRENT TROUGH OVERHEAD
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR AS ACTIVE A DAY
TUESDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

BY WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW ATLC
WILL HAVE CLEARED MOISTURE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA. GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TAKING DEW POINTS DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S STARTING
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A RETURN
TO BEAUTIFUL CARIBBEAN WINTER WEATHER.

AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR SHRAS AND MVFR CIGS REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS AT TJBQ WITH CONVECTION OF WRN PR DRIFTING
NW. AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

MARINE...ALL NORTHERLY SWELL ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENT IS
GONE...LEAVING MORE LOCALLY GENERATED ENE WIND WAVES AT AROUND 8 TO
9 SECONDS. BUOY 41403 IS SHOWING 8 TO 9 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS. EXPECT
THIS SCENARIO TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLC AND PASSAGES. AFTERWARD...WINDS INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE LATE TUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT. 8 TO 10 FOOT SEAS OVER MOST NON
PROTECTED WATERS UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  83  72  83 /  60  40  40  20
STT  74  83  72  83 /  70  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710...712...715...722...725...732...741
     AND 742 FROM 8 AM AST TUESDAY.
VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710...712...715...722...725 AND 732.
&&