Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 100255
FFSSJU

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1055 PM AST MON FEB 9 2009

PRC013-017-027-065-115-100304-
/O.EXP.TJSJ.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090210T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
QUEBRADILLAS PR-BARCELONETA PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-ARECIBO PR-
1055 PM AST MON FEB 9 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 PM AST FOR ARECIBO...
HATILLO...CAMUY...BARCELONETA AND QUEBRADILLAS MUNICIPALITIES...

DOPPLER WEATHER INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT WERE 
AFFECTING THESE AREAS...HAD DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY OR MOVED AWAY 
FROM THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF...SCATTERED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE 
ACROSS THE FORMER WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...NO 
ADDITIONAL PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. 
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 1843 6693 1849 6693 1850 6661 1848 6656
      1842 6656 1838 6667 1838 6685

$$

EM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST MON FEB 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LOW-LVL TROUGH NOW OVR THE MONA PASSAGE BUT WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
REGION MID WEEK BRINGING DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED
ROUGHLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/EASTERN DR...SLOWLY LIFTING WNW. BEST
FORCING STILL REMAINS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLC
WATERS IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERN SIDE OF U/L TROUGH. EXPECT MID TO
U/L LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO...SO POPS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COAST AND MONA PASSAGE
AREA OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...SOMEWHAT DRIER FLOW
SHOULD WORK IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW ATLC AT
THAT TIME WILL FORCE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND CURRENT TROUGH OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR
AS ACTIVE A DAY TUESDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR VARIABLY
CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

BY WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW ATLC
WILL HAVE CLEARED MOISTURE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA. GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TAKING DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S STARTING
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A RETURN
TO BEAUTIFUL CARIBBEAN WINTER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR SHRAS AND MVFR CIGS REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS AT TJBQ WITH CONVECTION OF WRN PR DRIFTING
NW. AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...ALL NORTHERLY SWELL ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENT IS
GONE...LEAVING MORE LOCALLY GENERATED ENE WIND WAVES AT AROUND 8 TO
9 SECONDS. BUOY 41403 IS SHOWING 8 TO 9 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS. EXPECT
THIS SCENARIO TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLC AND PASSAGES. AFTERWARD...WINDS INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE LATE TUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT. 8 TO 10 FOOT SEAS OVER MOST NON
PROTECTED WATERS UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  83  72  83 /  40  40  40  20
STT  74  83  72  83 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

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