Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA82 TJSJ 052200
FLSSJU

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 PM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

PRC025-029-031-063-077-087-119-129-139-052201-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.FA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-090905T2300Z/
CAGUAS PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-
CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
600 PM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR RIO GRANDE...LOIZA...
CAROLINA...CANOVANAS...TRUJILLO ALTO...SAN LORENZO...GURABO...JUNCOS 
AND CAGUAS MUNICIPALITIES...

AT 550 PM AST...USGS SENSORS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DE LOIZA REPORTED 
WATER LEVELS WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGES. THEREFORE...THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELED THE FLOOD WARNING ISSUED EARLIER FOR 
THE MUNICIPALITIES ABOVE MENTIONED.

RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD HOWEVER BE ALERT 
TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND ALLOW TIME FOR STREAMS...CREEKS 
AND RIVERS TO RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS.

LAT...LON 1837 6603 1845 6588 1819 6589 1812 6596
      1810 6598 1819 6608

$$

OB

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
836 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

.UPDATE...SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND OTHER FLOOD PRODUCTS IN
EFFECT. EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON. WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND EXTEND THE TIMING. THE MOST AREAS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AND MOST DESTRUCTIVE FLOODING SO FAR HAVE BEEN AROUND
THE CAGUAS AREA...BUT EXTREMELY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES NEAR
PONCE AND FAJARDO ARE CLOSING IN ON THE ISLAND. MOVEMENT OF THE
LOWER LEVEL FEATURE OF EX TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA SHOULD START TO
LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT...BUT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
PROBLEMATIC SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS VERY LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY TSRA ONGOING AT ALL
SITES. SOME TEMPO LIFR IN +TSRA LIKELY AT TJSJ AND TJPS FOR UNTIL
15Z. NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO ABOVE IFR UNTIL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009/

SYNOPSIS...
THE AXIS OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WAS NOW LOCATED BETWEEN WESTERN PUERTO RICO
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AXIS...WHICH WERE NOW AFFECTING PARTS OF THE EAST AND
SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE DAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SINKING SOUTHWARD BETWEEN PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THIS IS CREATING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. AT 500 MILLIBARS...AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...
FREQUENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE INLAND AND AFFECT THE
EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY SAINT CROIX...DURING THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE
TROUGH AIDED BY VERY UNSTABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL
CREATE VERY UNSTABLE AND ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.
THIS OVERALL SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING
HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF BEFORE REDEVELOPING
AND SPREADING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ACROSS ALL ISLANDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS
OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS VIEQUES AND THE ISLANDS OF SAINT CROIX.
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AND LOOSE TERRAIN MUDSLIDES REMAIN POSSIBLE
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND ALL LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT AREAS OF SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING
PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST...TISX
AND TJPS UNTIL AT LEAST BY 05/1600Z. THIS MOISTURE WILL PROPAGATE
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD PRODUCING INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES AFTER 04/1600Z.
PERIODS OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TJSJ 05/000Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET...BECOMING
FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT STILL LIGHTEST FROM 10-25K FEET AND THEN FROM
THE WEST AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  92  78 /  90  50  40  30
STT  87  81  89  80 / 100  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN
     INTERIOR-NORTHEAST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-
     VIEQUES.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX.

&&

93/64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
939 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-061345-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
939 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS...REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA. THIS
LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE...IS PRODUCING FLOODING RAINFALL OVER MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO AND ITS SURROUNDING ISLANDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 9 PM AST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA...WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE ON EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-061345-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
939 AM AST SAT SEP 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS...REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA. THIS
LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE...IS PRODUCING FLOODING RAINFALL OVER MUCH
OF PUERTO RICO AND ITS SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 9 PM AST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA...WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE ON EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
857 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CAROLINA                18.41N 65.98W
09/05/2009                   CAROLINA           PR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED MUDSLIDES IN SECTOR LOS CANOS...
            URBAN FLOODING OF ROADS 887...856...853. PARTS OF
            AVENIDAS ROBERTO CLEMENTE AND CEVERO QUINONES ARE ALSO
            FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

RMITCHEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
916 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GURABO                  18.26N 65.98W
09/05/2009                   GURABO             PR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED FLOODING OF THE GURABO RIVER WHICH
            WENT OUT OF ITS BANKS ITS SEVERAL AREAS....RIO LA
            PLATA...RIO CAGUITAS IN SAN LORENZO. URBAN FLOODING IN
            BARRIO LAS VEGAS IN CAYEY...PARTS OF HWY 1 IN THE BAIROA
            AREA ALSO FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE...AS WELL AS URB.LA PRA
            IN CAGUAS. MUDSLIDES ON ROAD 172 CAGUAS...HOUSE COLLAPSED
            ALONG ROAD 173 BARRIO BORINQUEN CAGUAS...POWER LINES DOWN
            IN BARRIO TOITAS CAYEY...SEVERAL SMALL STREAM/TRIBUTARIES
            OUT OF BANKS ROADS...156AND 189.

&&

RMITCHEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
916 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GURABO                  18.26N 65.98W
09/05/2009                   GURABO             PR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED FLOODING OF THE GURABO RIVER WHICH
            WENT OUT OF ITS BANKS IN SEVERAL AREAS....RIO LA
            PLATA...RIO CAGUITAS IN SAN LORENZO. URBAN FLOODING IN
            BARRIO LAS VEGAS IN CAYEY...PARTS OF HWY 1 IN THE BAIROA
            AREA ALSO FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE...AS WELL AS URB.LA PRA
            IN CAGUAS. MUDSLIDES ON ROAD 172 CAGUAS...HOUSE COLLAPSED
            ALONG ROAD 173 BARRIO BORINQUEN CAGUAS...POWER LINES DOWN
            IN BARRIO TOITAS CAYEY...SEVERAL SMALL STREAM/TRIBUTARIES
            OUT OF BANKS ON ROADS...156 AND 189.

&&

RMITCHEL