Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPLEX LOW AND FRONTAL STRUCTURE THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS SPAWNING ALL SORTS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL TORNADOES THROUGH KENTUCKY...JUST NOW
AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE EARLIER BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WILL COMBINE WITH THE
VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR TO CONTINUE THE TORNADO AND SEVERE
THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 10 PM EDT. AN ADDED
THREAT WILL BE TRAINING OF SUPERCELLS AND HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE
CONVERGENCE OF WELL ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS. AS A RESULT...WILL
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN AND COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH SHOWERS ENDING A BIT AFTER THE STORMS DO.

THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
RETURNING SUNSHINE AND DRIER CONDITIONS...BUT COOLER AS WELL. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A CHILL NIGHT WITH
FROST A POSSIBILITY AND EVEN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF FREEZING POSSIBLE
IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS A
MENTION IN THE ZONES AND HWO AS WE HAVE ENOUGH GOING ON THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED

MODELS (GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF) SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE IN EAST KY EARLY MON THOUGH NOGAPS IS A LITTLE
SLOWER. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS PROGRESSION FOR THE SYSTEM REMAINS
SLIGHTLY ON THE SLOW SIDE RELATIVE TO MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
BUT THIS IS PROBABLY THE BETTER CHOICE AS THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL
HOLD IT BACK AND KEEP IT A CLOSED LOW A BIT LONGER THAN OPENING IT
TO A WAVE. THE 12Z RUN SPREAD QPF THROUGH THE JKL CWA LATE SUN NIGHT
(FASTER THAN 00Z AND 06Z RUNS) SO DID NOT BACK OFF ON POPS THAT
NIGHT. THE LOW CENTER BECOMES ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED AND
PROGRESSES EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY RESULTING IN A PROLONGED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS... POSSIBLY INTO WED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO FOLLOW BY LATE NEXT
WEEK SHOWS WIDE DISPERSION IN SOLUTIONS. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED BUT WILL NOT FAVOR IT OVER GFS THIS FAR OUT. VERY
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
CIGS AND VIS WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. MORE ORGANIZED...
LINEAR...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA FROM 21 THROUGH 24Z. HAVE TIMED THESE THROUGH WITH A PREVAILING
AND TEMPO GROUP...EXPECTING VIS TO FALL TO IFR DURING THE WORST OF
THEM AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND GUSTS OF 30 35 KTS. FOLLOWING THE
STORMS THE SHOWERS WILL END LATE THIS EVENING WITH CIGS REMAINING
DOWN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH 12 TO 14Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIALLY AND THEN GRADUALLY
PICK UP AND SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA. FOLLOWING THIS...THEY SLOW AND SWING TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND LATER NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GV
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
426 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-111100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
426 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 133 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS...BUT
DUE TO THE TWISTING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END LATE THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA WILL BRING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EAST
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. FLASH FLOODING FROM THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY ANYWHERE IN EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MOST
SHELTERED VALLEYS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...
FUNNEL CLOUDS...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

GREIF

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