Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR MCS
ENTERING OUR AREA. EXPECT COLD POOL DYNAMICS TO TAKE OVER AND PUSH
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS EXPECT SOME
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS FCST FOR TUE.
HOWEVER... WRN MTN RIDGE WILL START EASING EAST ON WED AND WITH A
CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN COMES A CHANGE IN THE PATH STORMS TAKE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. FNTL BNDRY ACROSS THE WRN CORN BELT WILL
DROP INTO KY LATE TUE. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
AS IT DROPS SOUTH. SEVERAL WAVES ON THE FNT IN THE FORM OF MCV/S WILL
PROVIDE WAVES OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED
NIGHT. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SVR WX TUE AFTN/EVENING WITH
A BETTER CHANCE ON WED... PRIMARILY WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HEATING WHEN THE AIRMASS BECOMES THE MOST UNSTABLE. THIS IS ALSO THE
TIME WHEN SPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR FOR BASICALLY ALL
OF KY. NOT EXPECTING PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A LARGE AREA...
BUT THAT DOES NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED POCKETS WITH THE BETTER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. ALSO THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IS TO VAGUE TO ABSOLUTELY DEFINE LOCATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH SEASONAL AVGS. HIGH TEMPS
TUE WILL BE THE HIGHEST IF CLOUD COVER CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... MID TO UPPER 80S THRU THE SHORT TERM FCST.
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODELS WHICH HAS WORKED WELL OVERALL.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE EXIT OF H5 TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST AND STRONG H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...SUMMER LOOKS TO MAKE AN
APPEARANCE BY THE WEEKEND WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A
POSSIBILITY AND THE MENTION OF A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS AS WELL. DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AS THINGS HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH WITH NEW MODEL RUNS. STILL PREFER THE GFS AND ITS
SUPPORTING CAST ALONG WITH HPC WHERE MODELS DIFFER. HAVE CHANGED
POPS A BIT TO REFLECT A MORE DIURNAL TREND WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AS RING OF FIRE CONCEPT FITS THIS
PATTERN FAIRLY CLOSELY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. HAVE TAKEN POPS OUT EACH NIGHT AS UPSTREAM
MCS ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF TROUBLE COMBATING STRONG H5
RIDGING. BETTER FLOW ALOFT WOULD ALSO BE FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER
HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN EAST KENTUCKY WITH TD/S
AROUND 70 DEGREES. WILL WATCH MCS PROPAGATION AS A GENERAL
COMBINATION OF HIGHER THETA E AIR AND 300 MB FLOW SEEMS TO BE WHERE
THEY LIKE TO TRAVEL. FEEL THAT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF
ZFP FOR NOW.

SOME DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
REGARD TO THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROUGHING OVER THE AREA. GFS IS
FASTER IN DOING THIS WHICH ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD NEAR
THE AREA BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SUMMER WE HAVE HAD AND THE
UNLIKELY SCENARIO THAT THE RIDGE ACTUALLY HOLDS IN PLACE.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...ACTUALLY FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH THE 90 DEGREE FORECASTS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
H85 TEMPS AROUND 20 CELSIUS COULD SUPPORT THE MERCURY GETTING THAT
HIGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL LIE IN DIURNAL CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND COULD VERY WELL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON. ALL
IN ALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 WILL BE A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AS TD/S
STAY UP.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WITH THE APPROACHING
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
AROUND 10 AM AND LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE HIT OR
MISS AND AM CURRENTLY FORECASTING MINIMAL VFR WITH THE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER IF THE HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES VIS COULD DROP TO IFR RANGE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH. THE COMPLEX WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THE RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAVE A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS THAT SEE THE RAIN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY/RAY
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
913 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-051100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
913 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
GREATEST THREAT. IN ADDITION...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL...STORM
DAMAGE...AND ANY RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH.

RAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
845 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

KYZ044-051-052-104-041345-
FLEMING-ROWAN-BATH-ELLIOTT-
845 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 945 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING...

   FLEMING...ROWAN...BATH...AND ELLIOTT.

AT 840 AM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF FOXPORT TO DALESBURG TO 16
MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIRVIEW...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES
NORTHEAST OF FLEMINGSBURG TO 6 MILES NORTH OF FLEMINGSBURG TO 16
MILES NORTHEAST OF CYNTHIANA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BRING RAINFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN
INCH IN AN HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
TO...FOXPORT AROUND 845 AM EDT...NEPTON AROUND 850 AM
EDT...WALLINGFORD AROUND 855 AM EDT...POPLAR PLAINS AROUND 900 AM
EDT AND TILTON AROUND 905 AM EDT.