Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 041557
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1157 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

KYC165-197-237-041900-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-090804T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MENIFEE KY-POWELL KY-WOLFE KY-
1157 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR 
WESTERN WOLFE...POWELL...AND SOUTHWESTERN MENIFEE COUNTIES...

AT 1150 AM...THE EMERGENCY MANAGER OF POWELL COUNTY REPORTED FLOODED 
BUILDINGS IN STANTON AND THAT EVACUATIONS HAVE TAKEN PLACE. AT 
1146 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE WARNING AREA...WITH THE 
HEAVIEST RAIN HAVING MOVED FURTHER SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH THE RAINFALL 
INTENSITY HAS EASED...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY SERVE TO 
PROLONG ONGOING FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SPOUT 
SPRINGS...WESTBEND...WALTERSVILLE...VIRDEN...ROSSLYN...POWELL 
VALLEY...HAYSTACK...CAT CREEK...BOWEN...STANTON AND CLAY CITY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 8389 3791 8380 3792 8377 3788 8372
      3787 8353 3767 8360 3774 8377 3776 8379
      3775 8383 3776 8384 3777 8393 3780 8398
      3784 8398 3786 8404 3794 8398

$$

HAL

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 041756
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
156 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

KYC165-197-237-041900-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-090804T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MENIFEE KY-POWELL KY-WOLFE KY-
156 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR 
WESTERN WOLFE...POWELL...AND SOUTHWESTERN MENIFEE COUNTIES...

FLOOD WATERS FROM HEAVY RAINS IN THE MORNING WERE RECEDING EARLY 
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL 
AT TIMES...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WAS 
HEADING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE STORMS SHOULD 
ARRIVE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 3:45 PM EDT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM 
THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE FLOODWATERS TO RISE AGAIN...AND THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

IN ADDITION...A A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 
PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 8389 3791 8380 3792 8377 3788 8372
      3787 8353 3767 8360 3774 8377 3776 8379
      3775 8383 3776 8384 3777 8393 3780 8398
      3784 8398 3786 8404 3794 8398

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FCST PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR MCS
ENTERING OUR AREA. EXPECT COLD POOL DYNAMICS TO TAKE OVER AND PUSH
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS EXPECT SOME
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THIS FCST FOR TUE.
HOWEVER... WRN MTN RIDGE WILL START EASING EAST ON WED AND WITH A
CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN COMES A CHANGE IN THE PATH STORMS TAKE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH. FNTL BNDRY ACROSS THE WRN CORN BELT WILL
DROP INTO KY LATE TUE. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
AS IT DROPS SOUTH. SEVERAL WAVES ON THE FNT IN THE FORM OF MCV/S WILL
PROVIDE WAVES OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED
NIGHT. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SVR WX TUE AFTN/EVENING WITH
A BETTER CHANCE ON WED... PRIMARILY WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HEATING WHEN THE AIRMASS BECOMES THE MOST UNSTABLE. THIS IS ALSO THE
TIME WHEN SPC HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR FOR BASICALLY ALL
OF KY. NOT EXPECTING PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A LARGE AREA...
BUT THAT DOES NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED POCKETS WITH THE BETTER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. ALSO THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IS TO VAGUE TO ABSOLUTELY DEFINE LOCATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH SEASONAL AVGS. HIGH TEMPS
TUE WILL BE THE HIGHEST IF CLOUD COVER CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... MID TO UPPER 80S THRU THE SHORT TERM FCST.
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
MODELS WHICH HAS WORKED WELL OVERALL.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE EXIT OF H5 TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST AND STRONG H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...SUMMER LOOKS TO MAKE AN
APPEARANCE BY THE WEEKEND WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A
POSSIBILITY AND THE MENTION OF A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS AS WELL. DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AS THINGS HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH WITH NEW MODEL RUNS. STILL PREFER THE GFS AND ITS
SUPPORTING CAST ALONG WITH HPC WHERE MODELS DIFFER. HAVE CHANGED
POPS A BIT TO REFLECT A MORE DIURNAL TREND WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AS RING OF FIRE CONCEPT FITS THIS
PATTERN FAIRLY CLOSELY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. HAVE TAKEN POPS OUT EACH NIGHT AS UPSTREAM
MCS ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF TROUBLE COMBATING STRONG H5
RIDGING. BETTER FLOW ALOFT WOULD ALSO BE FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER
HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN EAST KENTUCKY WITH TD/S
AROUND 70 DEGREES. WILL WATCH MCS PROPAGATION AS A GENERAL
COMBINATION OF HIGHER THETA E AIR AND 300 MB FLOW SEEMS TO BE WHERE
THEY LIKE TO TRAVEL. FEEL THAT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF
ZFP FOR NOW.

SOME DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
REGARD TO THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROUGHING OVER THE AREA. GFS IS
FASTER IN DOING THIS WHICH ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD NEAR
THE AREA BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SUMMER WE HAVE HAD AND THE
UNLIKELY SCENARIO THAT THE RIDGE ACTUALLY HOLDS IN PLACE.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...ACTUALLY FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH THE 90 DEGREE FORECASTS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
H85 TEMPS AROUND 20 CELSIUS COULD SUPPORT THE MERCURY GETTING THAT
HIGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL LIE IN DIURNAL CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND COULD VERY WELL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON. ALL
IN ALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 WILL BE A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AS TD/S
STAY UP.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WITH THE APPROACHING
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
AROUND 10 AM AND LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE HIT OR
MISS AND AM CURRENTLY FORECASTING MINIMAL VFR WITH THE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER IF THE HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES VIS COULD DROP TO IFR RANGE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE STORMS AS THEY APPROACH. THE COMPLEX WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND THE RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAVE A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS THAT SEE THE RAIN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY/RAY
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
913 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-051100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
913 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
GREATEST THREAT. IN ADDITION...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL...STORM
DAMAGE...AND ANY RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH.

RAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
845 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

KYZ044-051-052-104-041345-
FLEMING-ROWAN-BATH-ELLIOTT-
845 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
THROUGH 945 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING...

   FLEMING...ROWAN...BATH...AND ELLIOTT.

AT 840 AM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF FOXPORT TO DALESBURG TO 16
MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIRVIEW...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES
NORTHEAST OF FLEMINGSBURG TO 6 MILES NORTH OF FLEMINGSBURG TO 16
MILES NORTHEAST OF CYNTHIANA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BRING RAINFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN
INCH IN AN HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
TO...FOXPORT AROUND 845 AM EDT...NEPTON AROUND 850 AM
EDT...WALLINGFORD AROUND 855 AM EDT...POPLAR PLAINS AROUND 900 AM
EDT AND TILTON AROUND 905 AM EDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

KYZ058-059-108-111-041530-
POWELL-ESTILL-WOLFE-LEE-
1045 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH
1130 AM EDT TUESDAY MORNING...

   POWELL...
   WESTERN WOLFE...
   EAST CENTRAL ESTILL AND
   LEE.

AT 1045 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PITTS...OR
NEAR IRVINE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...COBHILL AROUND
1050 AM EDT...PATSEY AROUND 1055 AM EDT...GREELEY AROUND 1100 AM
EDT...FIXER AROUND 1105 AM EDT AND WHISMAN AROUND 1110 AM EDT.

RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT 2 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1058 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNT STERLING          38.06N 83.95W
08/04/2009                   MONTGOMERY         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTED NUMEROUS ROADS IMPASSABLE ACROSS THE
            COUNTY.SOME ROADS AFFECTED ARE MAIN STREET IN MOUNT
            STERLING...KIDWELL ROAD...LEVEE ROAD...HINKSTONPIKE...US
            HIGHWAY60...PREWITT-GRASSY ROAD...OWINGSVILLE ROAD.

&&

DSTAMPER