Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1012 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INFORMATION AT THE BOTTOM
OF THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/THE REST OF TODAY/

HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 PM EDT TONIGHT. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT
NASHVILLE SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.99 INCHES...AND BUFKIT DATA
SHOWS 1.5 TO 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR OUR AREA TODAY. COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IN TN IS HEADED TOWARDS SOUTHERN KY.
THE 12Z NAM ALSO SUPPORTS HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AS LOW AS ONE HALF INCH FOR ONE HOUR IN SOME
OF OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND THIS DOES NOT EVEN TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
THE RAIN THAT FELL THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND UPDATES TO
COME OUT SHORTLY.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

THIS COMPLEX WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO RE-FIRE
LATER TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...AS WIND PROFILE INCREASES SOMEWHAT DURING
THE DAY AND INSTABILITY REMAINS AMPLE. ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.

BY TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING...HOWEVER THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH...SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS EARLY ON...AND THEN GRADUALLY TREND DOWN TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STUCK WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST.
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE PLENTIFUL THIS MORNING...HOWEVER EVEN AN
HOUR OF HEATING WILL SPIKE READINGS QUICKLY...SO STILL THINK LOW 80S
ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST SPOTS. ANOTHER BALMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS ARE IN WORSE THAN
AVERAGE AGREEMENT AS THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE FINE DETAILS OF
ZONAL FLOW RIPPLING ABOVE THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FAST...FOR SUMMER...
FLOW IS OCCURRING BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER OLD MEXICO AND THE
SEASONALLY MODIFIED POLAR LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THE DETAILS OF
EACH WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ARE QUITE
MUDDLED AND VARIED FROM EACH MODEL...BUT BROADER AND MORE GENERAL
FEATURES ARE APPARENT. EARLY FRIDAY...ONE WAVE OF ENERGY SHOULD BE
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WITH THE NEXT FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS LATTER ONE THEN SLIDES PAST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST SHARPENS AS
THE NORTHERN TROUGH SLIDES DEEPER INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS
DISPLACEMENT WILL CHANGE THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ONE. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A GLIDE PATH FOR
ADDITIONAL PACKETS OF ENERGY TO SLIP INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF
FROM WEDNESDAY...THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE RIDGING BUILD FURTHER INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEN KEEP
THE RIDGE A BIT FLATTER TO OUR WEST...AND THUS IT PAINTS A MORE
ACTIVE WX PICTURE INTO MID WEEK. WITH BETTER CONTINUITY...AND SUPPORT
OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR
MOST OF THE EXTENDED AND ITS SCENARIO WOULD DO A BETTER JOB OF
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND KEEPING OUR WEATHER MORE ON THE DRY SIDE.
ACCORDINGLY...THE FORECAST WAS NUDGED IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE THE LATEST IN A SERIES
OF WAVES PULLING OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT ANY HIGH PRESSURE
WOULD LIKELY BE TOO WEAK TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DO SEE A BIT DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE MORE SUCCESSFUL IN
KEEPING THE CONVECTION AT BAY. LATER ON...THE ECMWF BUILDS THAT HIGH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO TUESDAY...IDEALLY KEEPING THE STORM/MCS
TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT STILL TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT...SO POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN COMPLETELY REMOVED. THIS HIGH THEN WOULD MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO RETURN TO OUR
AREA FOR MIDWEEK.

THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD MOST OF THIS THEME WELL IN HAND...SO THE
GRIDS WERE GENERALLY JUST NUDGED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ABOVE
THOUGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE WILL BUMP UP TO VFR
TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND SOME IFR AT
TIMES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME INTENSE...HOWEVER EXPECTING
THE COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION STRONG WINDS IN THE
TAFS. BY DUSK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WANING...WITH FOG OR LOW STRATUS
LIKELY BUILDING IN AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN/SBH
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
426 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-121100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
426 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS
DURING THE DAY MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE PAST DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME FRIDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TODAY.

GEOGERIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
712 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

KYZ044-052-085>088-104-106>110-112>120-111200-
FLEMING-ROWAN-ELLIOTT-JOHNSON-MARTIN-WHITLEY-MORGAN-MAGOFFIN-WOLFE-
FLOYD-PIKE-BREATHITT-OWSLEY-KNOTT-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-KNOX-
HARLAN-BELL-
712 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH 800 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING...

AT 705 AM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST LIBERTY TO JACKSON TO WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SANDY HOOK...SALYERSVILLE...HAZARD AND
PINEVILLE AROUND 715 AM EDT...PAINTSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG AND
MIDDLESBORO AROUND 730 AM EDT...PIKEVILLE AND HARLAN AROUND 745
AM EDT...AND INEZ...SOUTH WILLIAMSON AND WHITESBURG AROUND 8 AM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
806 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

KYZ088-118>120-111230-
MARTIN-PIKE-LETCHER-HARLAN-
806 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT EASTERN MARTIN...
PIKE...LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES THROUGH 830 AM EDT THURSDAY
MORNING...

AT 805 AM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM CALF CREEK TO FISHTRAP LAKE TO POPEVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR WHITEPOST AROUND 810 AM EDT...TURKEY CREEK
AROUND 815 AM EDT...HARDY AROUND 820 AM EDT...TOONERVILLE AROUND 825
AM EDT...AND PAW PAW AROUND 830 AM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
917 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     FLOOD            2 NW ISOM               37.21N 82.93W
06/11/2009                   KNOTT              KY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            3 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS HIGHWAY 15 NEAR
            KNOTT/LETCHER COUNTY LINE.

&&

JCARICO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
932 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 AM     FLOOD            STRUNK                  36.63N 84.43W
06/11/2009                   MCCREARY           KY   PUBLIC

            STREAMS BANKFUL. EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN 754 AM AND 809
            AM. THROUGH AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM.

0822 AM     FLOOD            WILLIAMSBURG            36.74N 84.17W
06/11/2009                   WHITLEY            KY   PUBLIC

            WATER OVER ROADS. EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN 807 AM AND 822
            AM. THROUGH AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM.

&&

JCARICO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1053 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TURKEY CREEK            37.67N 82.31W
06/11/2009                   PIKE               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CREEK BEHIND HOUSE FLOODING BACKYARD AND WATER IS
            STARTING TO ENTER HOUSE.

&&

JCARICO