Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 111351
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
951 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

KYC013-121-147-235-111530-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-090611T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KNOX KY-WHITLEY KY-MCCREARY KY-BELL KY-
951 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM EDT FOR
WESTERN BELL...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MCCREARY...WHITLEY AND SOUTHERN
KNOX COUNTIES...

AT 945 AM EDT...RAIN HAD ENDED OVER ALL BUT BELL COUNTY AND SOUTHERN 
KNOX COUNTY. HOWEVER RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS 
MORNING WILL CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE 
POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING 
WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY 
ADDITIONAL REPORTS OF FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
WILLIAMSBURG...PINEVILLE...AND BARBOURVILLE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8427 3693 8432 3692 8369 3664 8361
      3662 8367 3658 8370

$$

SBH

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 111526
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1126 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

KYC013-121-147-235-111535-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-090611T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KNOX KY-WHITLEY KY-MCCREARY KY-BELL KY-
1126 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 AM EDT FOR WESTERN
BELL...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MCCREARY...WHITLEY AND SOUTHERN KNOX
COUNTIES...

RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...AND THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY  
REPORTS OF FLOODING SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM EDT.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3659 8427 3693 8432 3692 8369 3664 8361
      3662 8367 3658 8370

$$

SBH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
752 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

.SHORT TERM

COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS...AND INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS BECOMING LESS INTENSE IN
GENERAL. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE LEADING
EDGE. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES...HOWEVER THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MORE THAN ISOLATED
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING PROBLEMS. MOST OF THE STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING THE LEADING EDGE HAS BEEN BETWEEN A TENTH AND
A QUARTER OF AN INCH PER HOUR ACCORDING TO LOCAL OBSERVATIONS...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING AROUND A QUICK HALF INCH AS THE LEADING EDGE
PASSES OVER A GIVEN LOCATION. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE PULASKI/WAYNE COUNTY BORDER THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR TRAINING.

IT LOOKS PRETTY APPARENT THAT CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED
INITIALLY AT 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AS THE BACK EDGE WILL LIKELY
HOLD ON...SO WILL BE UPDATING THE ZONES. STILL EXPECT A RESURGENCE
LATER IN THE DAY...BUT THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A LULL FOR A FEW
HOURS FOLLOWING THIS COMPLEX.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

THIS COMPLEX WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO RE-FIRE
LATER TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...AS WIND PROFILE INCREASES SOMEWHAT DURING
THE DAY AND INSTABILITY REMAINS AMPLE. ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.

BY TONIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING...HOWEVER THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH...SO WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY
POPS EARLY ON...AND THEN GRADUALLY TREND DOWN TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY STUCK WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST.
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE PLENTIFUL THIS MORNING...HOWEVER EVEN AN
HOUR OF HEATING WILL SPIKE READINGS QUICKLY...SO STILL THINK LOW 80S
ARE POSSIBLE FOR MOST SPOTS. ANOTHER BALMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS ARE IN WORSE THAN
AVERAGE AGREEMENT AS THEY HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THE FINE DETAILS OF
ZONAL FLOW RIPPLING ABOVE THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FAST...FOR SUMMER...
FLOW IS OCCURRING BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER OLD MEXICO AND THE
SEASONALLY MODIFIED POLAR LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THE DETAILS OF
EACH WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ARE QUITE
MUDDLED AND VARIED FROM EACH MODEL...BUT BROADER AND MORE GENERAL
FEATURES ARE APPARENT. EARLY FRIDAY...ONE WAVE OF ENERGY SHOULD BE
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST WITH THE NEXT FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS LATTER ONE THEN SLIDES PAST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST SHARPENS AS
THE NORTHERN TROUGH SLIDES DEEPER INTO EASTERN CANADA. THIS
DISPLACEMENT WILL CHANGE THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ONE. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A GLIDE PATH FOR
ADDITIONAL PACKETS OF ENERGY TO SLIP INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF
FROM WEDNESDAY...THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE RIDGING BUILD FURTHER INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF AND THEN KEEP
THE RIDGE A BIT FLATTER TO OUR WEST...AND THUS IT PAINTS A MORE
ACTIVE WX PICTURE INTO MID WEEK. WITH BETTER CONTINUITY...AND SUPPORT
OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR
MOST OF THE EXTENDED AND ITS SCENARIO WOULD DO A BETTER JOB OF
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND KEEPING OUR WEATHER MORE ON THE DRY SIDE.
ACCORDINGLY...THE FORECAST WAS NUDGED IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MIDWEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE THE LATEST IN A SERIES
OF WAVES PULLING OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT ANY HIGH PRESSURE
WOULD LIKELY BE TOO WEAK TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DO SEE A BIT DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...THAT MAY BE MORE SUCCESSFUL IN
KEEPING THE CONVECTION AT BAY. LATER ON...THE ECMWF BUILDS THAT HIGH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO TUESDAY...IDEALLY KEEPING THE STORM/MCS
TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT STILL TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT...SO POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN COMPLETELY REMOVED. THIS HIGH THEN WOULD MOVE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION TO RETURN TO OUR
AREA FOR MIDWEEK.

THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD MOST OF THIS THEME WELL IN HAND...SO THE
GRIDS WERE GENERALLY JUST NUDGED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ABOVE
THOUGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. IFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE WILL BUMP UP TO VFR
TEMPORARILY THIS MORNING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FIRE UP IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND SOME IFR AT
TIMES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME INTENSE...HOWEVER EXPECTING
THE COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION STRONG WINDS IN THE
TAFS. BY DUSK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WANING...WITH FOG OR LOW STRATUS
LIKELY BUILDING IN AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
426 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-121100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
426 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS
DURING THE DAY MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE PAST DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME FRIDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TODAY.

GEOGERIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
511 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

KYZ068-079-083-084-111015-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-WAYNE-MCCREARY-
511 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ROCKCASTLE AND PULASKI
AND WAYNE AND WESTERN MCCREARY COUNTIES THROUGH 615 AM EDT THURSDAY
MORNING...

AT 511 AM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF EUBANK TO 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PARNELL TO 19 MILES WEST OF SUNNYBROOK...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR MAGNUM AROUND 530 AM EDT...ZULA AROUND 535 AM
EDT...SUNNYBROOK AROUND 540 AM EDT...TRIMBLE AROUND 545 AM EDT...AND
PULASKI AROUND 550 AM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

NUMEROUS DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
547 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

KYZ050-058>060-111030-
MONTGOMERY-MENIFEE-POWELL-ESTILL-
547 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY AND WESTERN
MENIFEE AND POWELL AND NORTHWESTERN ESTILL COUNTIES THROUGH 630 AM
EDT THURSDAY MORNING...

AT 547 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF
HARRIS FERRY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR HARRIS FERRY AROUND 605 AM EDT...CRESSY
AROUND 610 AM EDT...SPOUT SPRINGS AROUND 615 AM EDT...VIRDEN AROUND
620 AM EDT...AND STANTON AROUND 625 AM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
605 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106-108-109-111-
112-114>117-111100-
FLEMING-ROWAN-BATH-ELLIOTT-MONTGOMERY-MENIFEE-POWELL-ESTILL-
ROCKCASTLE-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-WHITLEY-MCCREARY-MORGAN-MAGOFFIN-
WOLFE-LEE-BREATHITT-JACKSON-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-KNOX-BELL-
605 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH 700 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING...

AT 600 AM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES WEST OF FAIRVIEW TO LOCUST BRANCH TO
MOUNT PISGAH...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR MOUNT STERLING AND CLAY CITY AROUND 615 AM
EDT...OWINGSVILLE...STANTON AND LONDON AROUND 630 AM EDT AND
FRENCHBURG...CAMPTON AND WILLIAMSBURG 645 AM EDT...AND
MOREHEAD...JACKSON...AND BARBOURVILLE AROUND 7 AM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
712 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

KYZ044-052-085>088-104-106>110-112>120-111200-
FLEMING-ROWAN-ELLIOTT-JOHNSON-MARTIN-WHITLEY-MORGAN-MAGOFFIN-WOLFE-
FLOYD-PIKE-BREATHITT-OWSLEY-KNOTT-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-KNOX-
HARLAN-BELL-
712 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH 800 AM EDT THURSDAY MORNING...

AT 705 AM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST LIBERTY TO JACKSON TO WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SANDY HOOK...SALYERSVILLE...HAZARD AND
PINEVILLE AROUND 715 AM EDT...PAINTSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG AND
MIDDLESBORO AROUND 730 AM EDT...PIKEVILLE AND HARLAN AROUND 745
AM EDT...AND INEZ...SOUTH WILLIAMSON AND WHITESBURG AROUND 8 AM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
806 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

KYZ088-118>120-111230-
MARTIN-PIKE-LETCHER-HARLAN-
806 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2009

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT EASTERN MARTIN...
PIKE...LETCHER AND HARLAN COUNTIES THROUGH 830 AM EDT THURSDAY
MORNING...

AT 805 AM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM CALF CREEK TO FISHTRAP LAKE TO POPEVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR WHITEPOST AROUND 810 AM EDT...TURKEY CREEK
AROUND 815 AM EDT...HARDY AROUND 820 AM EDT...TOONERVILLE AROUND 825
AM EDT...AND PAW PAW AROUND 830 AM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF