River Flood Warning 14, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
310 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING EVENT TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF CWA...

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH THE EXIT OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CAUSING SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE
TO THE EAST. VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ARE OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS AT OVER AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH AND A HALF. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS AND LLJ OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS CONTINUES TO
ACT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FLASH FLOODING...MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM SOMERSET TO
BEATTYVILLE TO JACKSON TO SALYERSVILLE TO PIKEVILLE. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN
POSSIBLE IN AREAS FURTHER WEST.

EXPECT CHANCES FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND REMAINS
QUASI STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE KEY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH RAINFALL REMAINS. WEAK
WAVES WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AT TIMES...AND MORE ENHANCED
TIMING FOR GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY FOLLOW WITH
LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS
AND KEPT AREAS TO THE SOUTH ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO
EXPECTED CONTINUED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

EXTENDED MODELS INITIALLY SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN LARGER SCALE
PATTERN BUT DIFFER A BIT ON SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...MAINLY TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF DISTURBANCES IN BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE HEART OF
THE CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY. WED
MORNING IS WHERE THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF THE
FASTER MODEL BY ALMOST 12 HRS. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS AS HIGH PRESS
TENDS TO BE RELUCTANT TO BE DISPLACED AND THE ECWMF TRACKS THE HIGH
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WERE THE GFS TAKES THE HIGH TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED MID ATLANTIC. THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED THE
GFS FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO
ERN KY WED NIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA TO PRECEDE AND LAST INTO THU BEFORE
PASSING THRU THE AREA. QPF WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM LOOKS MORE
NORMAL FOR FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND SHOULD NOT BE A AREAL AVG HEAVY RAIN
EVENT...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH TYPICAL TSRA IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF KENTUCKY. EXPECT ALL THREE TAF SITES
TO CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF LULLS AT TIMES. EXPECT
GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL DIPS TO IFR AND BELOW IN THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD DAWN AS
BOUNDARY THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RIDING ON WILL SLIDE
SOUTH AND CIGS/VIS RISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES COULD CAUSE PONDING ON RUNWAYS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1148 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-100700-
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-
MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1148 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AND
COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION PRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN ADDITION...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL
CAUSE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS TO RISE AND RUN HIGH. SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LATEST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING ON SATURDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY LOCAL FLOODING...OR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY
INSTANCES OF STORM DAMAGE.

KYZ044-050>052-100700-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD
1148 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AND COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION PRESENTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS TO
RISE AND RUN HIGH. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LATEST FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING ON SATURDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY LOCAL FLOODING...OR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE.

RAY/DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1246 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HAZARD                  37.25N 83.20W
05/08/2009                   PERRY              KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED THAT A CAR WAS SWEPT AWAY IN
            HAZARD.

&&

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1254 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HONAKER                 37.52N 82.68W
05/09/2009                   FLOYD              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOBILE HOME WASHED AWAY IN THE MARTIN AREA DUE TO FLOOD
            WATER. A FAMILY OF SIX IS WAITING TO BE RESCUED ON HIGH
            GROUND BUT WAS ABLE TO EVACUATE FROM THEIR MOBILE HOME.
            THIS REPORT WAS FROM FLOYD COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT.

&&
CORRECTED LOCATION OF FLOODING AND DAMAGE AFTER FURTHER CONSULATION
WITH FLOYD COUNTY EOC.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
101 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N VANCLEVE            37.67N 83.41W
05/08/2009                   BREATHITT          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ONE TREE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 15 ONE MILE SOUTH OF THE
            WOLFE COUNTY LINE.

1253 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VANCLEVE                37.63N 83.41W
05/09/2009                   BREATHITT          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            THE NORTH FORK OF THE KENTUCKY RIVER WAS ABOUT 100 YARDS
            OUT OF ITS BANK AT THE KY HIGHWAY 15 BRIDGE AT VANCLEVE.

1259 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FLAT                    37.65N 83.55W
05/09/2009  M0.00 INCH       WOLFE              KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1.8 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE 7 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
149 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GRETHEL                 37.49N 82.65W
05/09/2009                   FLOYD              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AMBULANCES ARE TRAPPED ALONG KY 979 DUE TO FLOODING IN
            NUMEROUS PLACES ALONG MUD CREEK AND ARE NOT ABLE TO
            EVACUATE PATIENTS. MEDIVAC NOT POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN AND
            LOW CEILINGS.

0138 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MARTIN                  37.57N 82.76W
05/09/2009                   FLOYD              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS ARE UNDER WATER DUE TO FLOODING IN MUCH OF
            FLOYD COUNTY.

0138 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BLUE RIVER              37.62N 82.84W
05/09/2009                   FLOYD              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROCK AND MUD SLIDES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG KENTUCKY
            ROUTE 404 IN THE DAVID AND BLUE RIVER AREAS ALONG THE
            LEFT FORK OF MIDDLE CREEK.

0138 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BLUE RIVER              37.62N 82.84W
05/09/2009                   FLOYD              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER POLES AND LINES ARE REPORTED DOWN DUE TO LOOSE
            EARTH. ONE HOME ON FIRE DUE TO POWER LINE ON THE HOUSE IN
            BUCKEYE BRANCH. DUE TO FLOODING...FIRE AND RESCUE CAN NOT
            REACH THE RESIDENCE.

&&

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
237 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BEATTYVILLE             37.58N 83.71W
05/09/2009                   LEE                KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CHAPMAN ROAD IS UNPASSABLE. TINCHER HILL CULVERT IS
            WASHED OUT AND ROAD CLOSED. SILVER CREEK ROAD IS
            UNPASSABLE. KY HIGHWAY 30 EAST AND WEST OF TOWN IS
            CLOSED. CATHEDRAL DOMAIN ROAD IS FLOODED. SPENCER RIDGE
            HILL IS UNPASSABLE. BUFALO ZION ROAD IS UNPASSABLE. THE
            PAVEMENT ON MAIN STREET HAS BEEN WASHED OUT IN
            BEATYVILLE.

&&

JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

KYZ058-068-069-111>115-090900-
ESTILL-ROCKCASTLE-LEE-BREATHITT-JACKSON-OWSLEY-KNOTT-PERRY-
300 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
ESTILL AND SOUTHERN LEE AND SOUTHERN BREATHITT AND NORTHERN JACKSON
AND NORTHERN OWSLEY AND NORTHEASTERN ROCKCASTLE AND EXTREME WEST
CENTRAL KNOTT AND NORTH CENTRAL PERRY COUNTIES THROUGH 500 AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING...

AT 357 AM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES EAST OF LUNAH TO NOCTOR TO YELLOW
ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.