Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 090749
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
349 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

KYC025-051-065-071-109-115-119-129-153-159-175-189-193-195-203-237-
090845-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-090509T0845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MORGAN KY-JOHNSON KY-MARTIN KY-MAGOFFIN KY-WOLFE KY-ESTILL KY-
FLOYD KY-PIKE KY-LEE KY-BREATHITT KY-JACKSON KY-OWSLEY KY-
ROCKCASTLE KY-KNOTT KY-PERRY KY-CLAY KY-
349 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM EDT FOR
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL CLAY...NORTHERN PERRY...NORTHERN KNOTT...
NORTHERN ROCKCASTLE...OWSLEY...JACKSON...BREATHITT...LEE...PIKE...
FLOYD...SOUTHEASTERN ESTILL...SOUTHEASTERN WOLFE...SOUTHERN
MAGOFFIN...SOUTHERN MARTIN...SOUTHERN JOHNSON AND EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 347 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALIGNED FROM PIKEVILLE...TO JACKSON...TO MCKEE.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUT DOWN BETWEEN A HALF INCH
AND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 3:45 AND 4:45 AM OVER
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN EXTENSIVE FLOODING. THIS IS A DANGEROUS 
AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU ARE NEAR A SMALL STREAM OR 
CREEK...SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 8228 3735 8451 3749 8438 3754 8436
      3753 8421 3757 8417 3758 8391 3767 8365
      3776 8298 3773 8236 3763 8221 3764 8217
      3759 8213 3756 8213 3753 8196

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...UPDATE

WE HAVE UPDATED FOR SVR WATCH 277 UNTIL 11Z (7 AM EDT) SATURDAY AND
THIS WATCH REPLACES TORNADO WATCH 271 IN OUR CWA. THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES. SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BETWEEN THE
MTN PARKWAY AND KY HWY 80. MODELS HINT AT MCS/CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
POSSIBLY RIDING ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SEVERE...THOUGH FLOODING AND EVOLUTION OF FLASH
FLOODING TO LARGER CREEK...STREAM AND SIGNIFICANT RISES DOWNSTREAM ON
AREA RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE KENTUCKY BASIN IS BECOMING THE
LARGEST CONCERN. UPDATED ZFP...GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ALREADY SENT.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...UPDATE

MAJORITY OF THE SVR WX HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWFA AND WHAT WE HAVE
LEFT IS A SERIES OF SUPER CELLS TRACKING TO THE EAST THRU THE SRN
HALF OF OUR CWFA. THE SVR TSRA WATCH FOR THE NRN COUNTIES WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE THE TOR WATCH FOR THE SRN
HALF WHERE THE BEST DISCRETE STORMS ARE AND WHERE THE WARNINGS
PERSIST.

/TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

STRONG MCV MOVING RAPIDLY UP THE MOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON KICKING OFF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KY.
LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ROLL THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY BETWEEN ABOUT 4 AND 6 PM LOCAL. WITH SUCH STRONG ROTATION
NOT SURPRISED TO HEAR REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOS
UPSTREAM. BASED ON THE RUC...WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON EVENTS
TODAY...EXPECT THIS MCV TO RIDE STRAIGHT UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THEREFORE IT IS LIKELY AT LEAST PART OF OUR CWA WILL
SEE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. MOVED VALID TIME OF FLASH
FLOOD WATCH UP TO 4 PM TO CORRESPOND WITH ARRIVAL OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A
HALF INCH OF RAIN TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN MANY PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. SO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SETTLES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT RAIN TO COME TO AN END
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. EXPECT AERIAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG AREA
RIVERS WILL BE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

EXTENDED MODELS INITIALLY SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN LARGER SCALE
PATTERN BUT DIFFER A BIT ON SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...MAINLY TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF DISTURBANCES IN BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE HEART OF
THE CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. DRY WEATHER PATTERN
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH OF THE STATE AND
TAKES THE PRECIP TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. TEMPS FCST TO RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. VERY WEAK WAVE TO PUSH PCPN BACK INTO OUR SRN COUNTIES EARLY
MON BUT QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY. WED
MORNING IS WHERE THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF THE
FASTER MODEL BY ALMOST 12 HRS. PREFER THE SLOWER GFS AS HIGH PRESS
TENDS TO BE RELUCTANT TO BE DISPLACED AND THE ECWMF TRACKS THE HIGH
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WERE THE GFS TAKES THE HIGH TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED MID ATLANTIC. THEREFORE HAVE FOLLOWED THE
GFS FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. COLD FRONT TO SWEEP INTO
ERN KY WED NIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA TO PRECEDE AND LAST INTO THU BEFORE
PASSING THRU THE AREA. QPF WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM LOOKS MORE
NORMAL FOR FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND SHOULD NOT BE A AREAL AVG HEAVY RAIN
EVENT...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH TYPICAL TSRA IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF KENTUCKY. EXPECT ALL THREE TAF SITES
TO CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF LULLS AT TIMES. EXPECT
GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL DIPS TO IFR AND BELOW IN THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD DAWN AS
BOUNDARY THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RIDING ON WILL SLIDE
SOUTH AND CIGS/VIS RISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES COULD CAUSE PONDING ON RUNWAYS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...RAY/DUSTY
LONG TERM....DUSTY
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1148 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-100700-
ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-
MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-
MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-
MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
1148 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AND
COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION PRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN ADDITION...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL
CAUSE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS TO RISE AND RUN HIGH. SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LATEST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING ON SATURDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY LOCAL FLOODING...OR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY
INSTANCES OF STORM DAMAGE.

KYZ044-050>052-100700-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD
1148 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AND COMBINED WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION PRESENTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN
ADDITION...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS TO
RISE AND RUN HIGH. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LATEST FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING ON SATURDAY. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY LOCAL FLOODING...OR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE.

RAY/DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1058 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LANGLEY                 37.53N 82.79W
05/08/2009                   FLOYD              KY   PUBLIC

            STREAMS WERE FLOWING INTO BUILDINGS.

&&

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1243 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MARTIN                  37.57N 82.76W
05/09/2009                   FLOYD              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOBILE HOME WASHED AWAY IN THE MARTIN AREA DUE TO FLOOD
            WATER. A FAMILY OF SIX IS WAITING TO BE RESCUED ON HIGH
            GROUND BUT WAS ABLE TO EVACUATE FROM THEIR MOBILE HOME.
            THIS REPORT WAS FROM FLOYD COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1246 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HAZARD                  37.25N 83.20W
05/08/2009                   PERRY              KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED THAT A CAR WAS SWEPT AWAY IN
            HAZARD.

&&

SCHOETTMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1254 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HONAKER                 37.52N 82.68W
05/09/2009                   FLOYD              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOBILE HOME WASHED AWAY IN THE MARTIN AREA DUE TO FLOOD
            WATER. A FAMILY OF SIX IS WAITING TO BE RESCUED ON HIGH
            GROUND BUT WAS ABLE TO EVACUATE FROM THEIR MOBILE HOME.
            THIS REPORT WAS FROM FLOYD COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT.

&&
CORRECTED LOCATION OF FLOODING AND DAMAGE AFTER FURTHER CONSULATION
WITH FLOYD COUNTY EOC.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
101 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N VANCLEVE            37.67N 83.41W
05/08/2009                   BREATHITT          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ONE TREE DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 15 ONE MILE SOUTH OF THE
            WOLFE COUNTY LINE.

1253 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VANCLEVE                37.63N 83.41W
05/09/2009                   BREATHITT          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            THE NORTH FORK OF THE KENTUCKY RIVER WAS ABOUT 100 YARDS
            OUT OF ITS BANK AT THE KY HIGHWAY 15 BRIDGE AT VANCLEVE.

1259 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FLAT                    37.65N 83.55W
05/09/2009  M0.00 INCH       WOLFE              KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1.8 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE 7 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
149 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GRETHEL                 37.49N 82.65W
05/09/2009                   FLOYD              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AMBULANCES ARE TRAPPED ALONG KY 979 DUE TO FLOODING IN
            NUMEROUS PLACES ALONG MUD CREEK AND ARE NOT ABLE TO
            EVACUATE PATIENTS. MEDIVAC NOT POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN AND
            LOW CEILINGS.

0138 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MARTIN                  37.57N 82.76W
05/09/2009                   FLOYD              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS ARE UNDER WATER DUE TO FLOODING IN MUCH OF
            FLOYD COUNTY.

0138 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BLUE RIVER              37.62N 82.84W
05/09/2009                   FLOYD              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROCK AND MUD SLIDES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG KENTUCKY
            ROUTE 404 IN THE DAVID AND BLUE RIVER AREAS ALONG THE
            LEFT FORK OF MIDDLE CREEK.

0138 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BLUE RIVER              37.62N 82.84W
05/09/2009                   FLOYD              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER POLES AND LINES ARE REPORTED DOWN DUE TO LOOSE
            EARTH. ONE HOME ON FIRE DUE TO POWER LINE ON THE HOUSE IN
            BUCKEYE BRANCH. DUE TO FLOODING...FIRE AND RESCUE CAN NOT
            REACH THE RESIDENCE.

&&

JJ