Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 191908
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

KYC013-095-235-192030-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-090819T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARLAN KY-WHITLEY KY-BELL KY-
308 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHERN BELL...SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN
COUNTIES...

AT 303 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE 
WARNED AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP AND MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE 
SAME LOCATIONS. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES 
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL 
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. AREAS OF SPECIAL CONCERN INCLUDE LOCATIONS 
ALONG...AND EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM MIDDLESBORO IN BELL 
COUNTY...TO ALVA IN HARLAN COUNTY.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8410 3661 8409 3691 8323 3682 8310
      3676 8313 3670 8337 3667 8342 3666 8354
      3662 8367 3658 8371

$$

RAY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 192028
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

KYC013-095-235-192038-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-090819T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARLAN KY-WHITLEY KY-BELL KY-
428 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN
BELL...SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTIES...

TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3659 8410 3661 8409 3691 8323 3682 8310
      3676 8313 3670 8337 3667 8342 3666 8354
      3662 8367 3658 8371

$$

DUSTY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NE INTO THE CWA FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH PW IN THE 1.6 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CWA. MODELS ALSO ARE INDICATING
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THAT SHOULD PASS OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH AND
LIKELY NORTH...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. THE MAIN CONCERN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING IF ANY TRAINING OCCURS. FFG VALUES ARE AROUND TWO
INCHES IN AN HOUR AND TWO TO THREE INCHES IN THREE HOURS...VALUES
REACHABLE LOCALLY IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SO FAR CONVECTION HAS
BEEN RATHER PROGRESSIVE...BUT PWS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ALREADY FORMING OVER EAST TN AND SHOULD
AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HWO IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT. SINCE THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS
BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE LEFT THEM AS IS.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. ALTHOUGH...THE WRF AND GFS DO
SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS/SMALL SCALE FEATURES IN THE LATER
PERIODS. WE WILL CONTINUE IN A FEED OF GULF MOISTURE UNTIL FRIDAY.
THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE OVER OUR SE COUNTIES TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND HAVE USED THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. AFTER TONIGHT IT
BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT TO SHOW A FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WENT
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER PEAK HEATING
MAXIMIZES THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A DEEPENING SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. IT WILL SEND
A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THURSDAY. WIND FIELDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS THIS HAPPENS...AND COULD POSE A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG WINDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER
OFF BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEING
IN OUR SE COUNTIES...BUT ONLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITHOUT GOOD
ORGANIZATION FOR THE CONVECTION UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...SUSPECT
THAT IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS IT WILL BE LOCALIZED. A BIGGER THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK EAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN KY BY LATE SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF AND RECENT MODEL RUNS TAKE THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH EAST OF THE
AREA BY 12Z SUN. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST BY EARLY SUN...THE
REGION WILL ON AVERAGE BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING
BY IN NW FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
THE NE US POSSIBLY MOVING OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY ON SUN. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED NEAR FL. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
HAVE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM SUN ON...WITH THE
12Z GFS HAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS LINGERING OVER THE
SE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAS RISING HEIGHTS ON AVERAGE. THE 17/12Z
GFS AND THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS HAVE THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAKNESS
WHILE THE ECWMF RUNS HAVE MORE OR LESS TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS FEATURE
OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. IN EITHER SCENARIO...WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS AND
WARMING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO
THE LOW AND MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SAT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL
WORKING ACROSS THE REGION. AN ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO
COULD COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING ON SUN...AND THE TROUGH COULD BE A
BIT SLOWER TO MOVE EAST AND WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SUN AFTERNOON AS WELL. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...AND RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS EXPECTED... OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR MON AND TUE...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE SE CWA...AND HAVE
MAINLY AFFECTED SME AND LOZ. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THOUGH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EVEN IN THE NORTH THROUGH ABOUT 22Z. MVFR AND LOWER CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THOUGH ENOUGH MIXING HAS
OCCURRED OR WILL OCCUR FOR VFR OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN AROUND 22Z...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
VFR. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH FOR SOME MVFR AND WORSE FOG WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS TODAY IN THE 8Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME. CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN ON THU BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HAL/JP
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
626 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-201100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
626 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME
OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUING THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF FLOODING...
RAINFALL OF MORE THAN AN INCH IN AN HOUR...OR DAMAGING WINDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HAL