Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
229 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH NWLY FLOW
FROM 1000-500 MB ONLY AT ABOUT 5 KT OVER SE GA BUT WLY 5-10 KT OVER
NE FL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER SRN GA PER RUC ANALYSIS. SFC
BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000-3500 J/KG ATTM WITH RADAR SHOWING
SCT SMALL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. TSTMS
CONFINED MAINLY S OF LINE FROM GNV-SGJ FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND W
COAST SEA BREEZE.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT-FRIDAY.
TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAINLY BE LOCATED OVER THE NE
FL ZONES THIS EVENING WITH MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER SE GA. DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT MAY ENABLE SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
INLAND SE GA.

WEDNESDAY...GFS SHOWS MEAN LAYER TROUGH CONTINUING JUST W OF THE CWA
AS DOES THE NAM MODEL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND MORE SWLY TRAJECTORY IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT POPS
TO REMAIN WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ALL ZONES AGAIN WITH 60%
POPS ADVERTISED INLAND JUST W OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND E OF I-75
DUE TO W/E COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S EXPECTED. WED NIGHT...CHANCE PRECIP OVER NE FL IN THE
EVENING WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY FAR SW ZONES AND SE GA FOR NOW. ACTIVITY
MAY LAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS OUTFLOWS MAY SUPPORT LATE
ACTIVITY IN SE GA.

THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH TROFINESS REMAINING JUST W OF THE
AREA/PWATS NEAR 1.8 INCHES AND SWLY FLOW PROMOTING LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN PUSHING OFF TOWARD THE NE.
GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND CHANCE POPS WHICH IS SEEMS REASONABLE
ATTM. CHANCE POPS OVER ERN ZONES THU EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO NUDGE INTO THE SRN ZONES AND
MEAN FLOW APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING AROUND TO S TO SSE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHER COVERAGE/RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES AS THE ATL
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. MAX TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY PUSH JUST ABOVE THE 100 MARK EACH
DAY...POSSIBLY IN LOWER-MID 100S FRIDAY.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM TSTM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG/PSBLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY-TUESDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE A MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
INITIALLY OVER THE SE U.S. AND SLOWLY MIGRATING WWD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER THAN AVERAGE PWAT VALUES WILL REFLECT IN RAIN
CHANCES AT OR BELOW NORMAL. BEST RAIN CHANCES ANTICIPATED FOR THE
INLAND AREAS AS DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW WILL HAVE AN EAST COMPONENT.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE AOA CLIMO AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE
REGION WITH MAXES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND MINS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
HEAT INDEX READINGS ONCE AGAIN PUSH UP TO ABOUT 104-108 FROM SAT-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY POPUP STORMS EXPECTED ARND EAST COAST TERMINALS
AND HAVE VCTS UNTIL 00Z. TSRA NOW S OF GNV AND MAY ADD TEMPO FOR
TSRA IF APPEARS STORMS WILL MOVE OVER TAF SITE. OTHERWISE HAVE
TEMPO FOR MVFR AT VQQ FROM 08Z-10Z AND CB ADDED AFTER 15Z WED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE SE ARND 10 KT NEAR SHORE AND SOUTH LESS THAN
10 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL DOMINATE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE...THEN BY LATE IN WEEK WINDS SHIFT TO SE AS HIGH
PUSHES INTO LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  71  93 /  20  40  20  40
SSI  76  90  76  89 /  20  40  20  40
JAX  73  92  72  91 /  30  50  30  40
SGJ  74  89  75  89 /  30  50  30  30
GNV  71  91  72  93 /  30  60  30  40
OCF  71  92  71  93 /  30  60  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHASHY/TRABERT/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1038 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-050930-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1038 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROMOTE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
STORMS MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
658 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

FLZ040-042345-
MARION-
658 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 658 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTH OF OCALA AIRPORT...OR 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF OCALA...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND OCALA AIRPORT...OCALA AND
SANTOS THROUGH 745 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2922 8206 2904 8206 2908 8233 2920 8229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 272DEG 5KT 2913 8220

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
703 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

FLZ032-036-037-042345-
ALACHUA-CLAY-PUTNAM-
703 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALACHUA...SOUTHERN
CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL
745 PM EDT...

AT 703 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER NEWNANS LAKE...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
GAINESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WALDO...NEWNANS LAKE...GAINESVILLE
AIRPORT...GAINESVILLE...ROCHELLE...ORANGE HEIGHTS...MICANOPY...
KEYSTONE HEIGHTS...GROVE PARK AND MELROSE THROUGH 745 PM EDT. GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND
DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2954 8165 2949 8251 2978 8250 2981 8211
      2973 8205 2981 8204 2984 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 301DEG 16KT 2966 8221

ZIBURA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
709 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     TSTM WND GST     GAINESVILLE AIRPORT     29.69N 82.28W
08/04/2009  M61.00 MPH       ALACHUA            FL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WIND GUST TO 61 MPH WAS MEASURED AT GAINESVILLE REGIONAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

ECZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
709 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

FLZ036-037-040-050000-
ALACHUA-MARION-PUTNAM-
709 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ALACHUA...NORTHERN MARION AND SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 709 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES WEST OF FORT MCCOY...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
SPARR...REDDICK...ORANGE SPRINGS...MCINTOSH...LOWELL...CROSS CREEK...
CITRA...ANTHONY...HOG VALLEY AND FORT MCCOY THROUGH 800 PM EDT.
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2950 8240 2954 8165 2925 8170 2921 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 301DEG 16KT 2937 8200

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
712 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

GAZ134>136-151-152-164-165-050000-
APPLING-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-PIERCE-WAYNE-
712 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
CHARLTON...BRANTLEY...PIERCE...SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE...SOUTHEASTERN
APPLING...EASTERN BACON AND WESTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 713 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOBOKEN...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
PATTERSON...HOBOKEN...BLACKSHEAR...HORTENSE...WINOKUR...RAYBON...
HICKOX AND NAHUNTA THROUGH 800 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3166 8209 3123 8185 3082 8185 3092 8218
      3102 8220 3102 8214 3109 8221 3116 8221
      3117 8224 3166 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 281DEG 10KT 3123 8209

ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
721 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

GAZ134-042345-
BACON-
721 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BACON COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 722 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 7 MILES NORTH OF ALMA...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND NEW
LACY AND ALMA THROUGH 745 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3168 8247 3165 8243 3163 8236 3146 8231
      3143 8243 3147 8248 3147 8258 3156 8259
      3167 8253 3168 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 333DEG 4KT 3164 8244

ZIBURA