Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
229 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH NWLY FLOW
FROM 1000-500 MB ONLY AT ABOUT 5 KT OVER SE GA BUT WLY 5-10 KT OVER
NE FL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER SRN GA PER RUC ANALYSIS. SFC
BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000-3500 J/KG ATTM WITH RADAR SHOWING
SCT SMALL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. TSTMS
CONFINED MAINLY S OF LINE FROM GNV-SGJ FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND W
COAST SEA BREEZE.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT-FRIDAY.
TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAINLY BE LOCATED OVER THE NE
FL ZONES THIS EVENING WITH MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER SE GA. DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT MAY ENABLE SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
INLAND SE GA.

WEDNESDAY...GFS SHOWS MEAN LAYER TROUGH CONTINUING JUST W OF THE CWA
AS DOES THE NAM MODEL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND MORE SWLY TRAJECTORY IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT POPS
TO REMAIN WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ALL ZONES AGAIN WITH 60%
POPS ADVERTISED INLAND JUST W OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND E OF I-75
DUE TO W/E COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S EXPECTED. WED NIGHT...CHANCE PRECIP OVER NE FL IN THE
EVENING WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY FAR SW ZONES AND SE GA FOR NOW. ACTIVITY
MAY LAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS OUTFLOWS MAY SUPPORT LATE
ACTIVITY IN SE GA.

THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH TROFINESS REMAINING JUST W OF THE
AREA/PWATS NEAR 1.8 INCHES AND SWLY FLOW PROMOTING LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN PUSHING OFF TOWARD THE NE.
GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND CHANCE POPS WHICH IS SEEMS REASONABLE
ATTM. CHANCE POPS OVER ERN ZONES THU EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO NUDGE INTO THE SRN ZONES AND
MEAN FLOW APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING AROUND TO S TO SSE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHER COVERAGE/RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND ZONES AS THE ATL
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES FURTHER INLAND. MAX TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY PUSH JUST ABOVE THE 100 MARK EACH
DAY...POSSIBLY IN LOWER-MID 100S FRIDAY.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM TSTM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG/PSBLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY-TUESDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE A MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
INITIALLY OVER THE SE U.S. AND SLOWLY MIGRATING WWD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER THAN AVERAGE PWAT VALUES WILL REFLECT IN RAIN
CHANCES AT OR BELOW NORMAL. BEST RAIN CHANCES ANTICIPATED FOR THE
INLAND AREAS AS DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW WILL HAVE AN EAST COMPONENT.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE AOA CLIMO AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE
REGION WITH MAXES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND MINS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
HEAT INDEX READINGS ONCE AGAIN PUSH UP TO ABOUT 104-108 FROM SAT-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY POPUP STORMS EXPECTED ARND EAST COAST TERMINALS
AND HAVE VCTS UNTIL 00Z. TSRA NOW S OF GNV AND MAY ADD TEMPO FOR
TSRA IF APPEARS STORMS WILL MOVE OVER TAF SITE. OTHERWISE HAVE
TEMPO FOR MVFR AT VQQ FROM 08Z-10Z AND CB ADDED AFTER 15Z WED.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE SE ARND 10 KT NEAR SHORE AND SOUTH LESS THAN
10 KT AWAY FROM THE COAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL DOMINATE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE...THEN BY LATE IN WEEK WINDS SHIFT TO SE AS HIGH
PUSHES INTO LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  71  93 /  20  40  20  40
SSI  76  90  76  89 /  20  40  20  40
JAX  73  92  72  91 /  30  50  30  40
SGJ  74  89  75  89 /  30  50  30  30
GNV  71  91  72  93 /  30  60  30  40
OCF  71  92  71  93 /  30  60  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHASHY/TRABERT/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1038 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-050930-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1038 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROMOTE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
STORMS MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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