Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...HOT CONDITIONS TO EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 110 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS...

.SHORT TERM...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH NO ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. AS WAS ADVERTISED...GREATEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WHERE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER COUPLED WITH STRONGER SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS ACROSS THIS AREA.
WITH A PREVAILING...ALBEIT WEAK WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY FOCUS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINS PER SLOW STORM MOTION.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY QUICKLY DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MAY LINGER CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
CONTINUATION OF WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FLORIDA ZONES...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH A PREVAILING GULF COAST SEA-BREEZE
FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN INITIATE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING. HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S WILL LIKELY EXTEND TO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
HOLDING TO OUR SOUTH. THESE FEATURE WILL LIKELY FURTHER INCREASE
THE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW...WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT
PINNED TO THE COAST. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING INTO THE
105-110 RANGE. HAVE INCLUDED HOMOGENEOUS CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH A DOMINANT GULF COAST SEA-BREEZE
PROVIDING THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
INTERACT WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH RESIDING NEAR THE AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FRONTAL ZONE...MOISTURE AND DEEPER
W/SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SCTD TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO ISOLD SVR TSTMS
AT TIMES. HIGHER COVERAGE OF TSTMS AND CLOUDS SHOULD TWEAK MAX TEMPS
BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE ON HOW FAR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD AND IF FRONT HANGS UP ACRS
NERN FL...EXPECT ACTIVE SCTD/NUMEROUS TSTM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH STRONG TO ISOLD SVR TSTMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT AROUND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...WILL SEE INCREASING SWRLY FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SCEC CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN-TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  98  75  98 /  20  20  20  30
SSI  77  95  79  96 /  20  10  20  30
JAX  75  97  76  97 /  30  20  20  30
SGJ  76  94  76  94 /  30  20  20  30
GNV  73  94  74  95 /  20  30  20  30
OCF  73  92  74  93 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ZAPPE/WOLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
442 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-271000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
442 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE
ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH
HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMING
SCATTERED AREAWIDE WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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