Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...HOT CONDITIONS TO EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 110 DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS...

.SHORT TERM...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH NO ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. AS WAS ADVERTISED...GREATEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WHERE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINS DEEPER COUPLED WITH STRONGER SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND WEAKER SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS ACROSS THIS AREA.
WITH A PREVAILING...ALBEIT WEAK WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY FOCUS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINS PER SLOW STORM MOTION.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY QUICKLY DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MAY LINGER CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
CONTINUATION OF WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FLORIDA ZONES...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH A PREVAILING GULF COAST SEA-BREEZE
FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN INITIATE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING. HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S WILL LIKELY EXTEND TO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
HOLDING TO OUR SOUTH. THESE FEATURE WILL LIKELY FURTHER INCREASE
THE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW...WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT
PINNED TO THE COAST. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING INTO THE
105-110 RANGE. HAVE INCLUDED HOMOGENEOUS CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH A DOMINANT GULF COAST SEA-BREEZE
PROVIDING THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
INTERACT WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH RESIDING NEAR THE AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FRONTAL ZONE...MOISTURE AND DEEPER
W/SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SCTD TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO ISOLD SVR TSTMS
AT TIMES. HIGHER COVERAGE OF TSTMS AND CLOUDS SHOULD TWEAK MAX TEMPS
BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE ON HOW FAR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD AND IF FRONT HANGS UP ACRS
NERN FL...EXPECT ACTIVE SCTD/NUMEROUS TSTM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WITH STRONG TO ISOLD SVR TSTMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT AROUND TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...WILL SEE INCREASING SWRLY FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SCEC CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN-TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  98  75  98 /  20  20  20  30
SSI  77  95  79  96 /  20  10  20  30
JAX  75  97  76  97 /  30  20  20  30
SGJ  76  94  76  94 /  30  20  20  30
GNV  73  94  74  95 /  20  30  20  30
OCF  73  92  74  93 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ZAPPE/WOLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
442 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-271000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
442 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE
ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH
HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMING
SCATTERED AREAWIDE WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
335 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             2 W PALM COAST          29.57N 81.25W
06/26/2009  E0.25 INCH       FLAGLER            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL JUST
            WEST OF PALM COAST AT THE DIVISION OF FORESTRY TOWER NEAR
            U.S. 1.

&&

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
349 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FLZ033-037-038-262030-
FLAGLER-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-
349 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN PUTNAM...
NORTHWESTERN FLAGLER AND SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 349 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF POMONA PARK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS AROUND SATSUMA...POMONA PARK...PALATKA...LAKE COMO...SAN
MATEO...EAST PALATKA...ANDALUSIA...ORANGE MILLS...SPUDS AND HASTINGS
THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2943 8158 2956 8170 2984 8171 2984 8159
      2985 8159 2986 8155 2951 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 234DEG 9KT 2954 8156

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
406 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FLZ032-033-262045-
CLAY-ST. JOHNS-
406 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAY
AND NORTHWESTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES WEST OF PICOLATA...OR 14 MILES
SOUTH OF FRUIT COVE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND GREEN COVE SPRINGS AND PICOLATA THROUGH 445
PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3009 8161 2988 8149 2986 8154 2985 8159
      2984 8160 2984 8175 2997 8177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 259DEG 6KT 2990 8164

CARROLL