Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM E SC TO THE
EXTREME NE GOMEX. AN MCS IS PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL AL. MID CLOUDS
FROM EARLIER MCS OVER SE GA HAVE THINNED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STRONG TSTMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG OLD OUTFLOW IN NE FL FROM
THE JAX AREA TO NW OF KGNV. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW MID 90S.

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FIRING ACROSS NE FL THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH MODIFIED
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 J/KG...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WINDS DUE TO
PRECIP LOADING FROM THE MOIST LOWER LEVELS AND POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL WIND COMPONENT AS TSTMS TAP INTO DRIER AIR ABOVE ABOUT
550MB. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL. HAIL THREAT IS
LOWER...BUT WITH LARGE CAPE AREA...ANY TILT OF STORMS FROM EITHER
UNDERCUTTING ATLC SEABREEZE OR INCREASING SHEAR OVER N PORTION OF
THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE THREAT.

ALTHO MCS NW OF THE AREA IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...OUTFLOWS
MAY KEEP TSTMS GOING THRU THE EVENING HOURS. SOME NEG VORT
ADVECTION BETWEEN THIS FEATURE MAY LIMIT CONVECTION...SO HAVE
CAPPED POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT THRU THE EVENING.

LOWER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED ON SUN AND MON AS HEIGHTS RISE. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE EXTREME S ON SUN AND THE EXTREME S
AND EXTREME N ON MON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER...WITH MAX TEMPS
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO EXTENDED PACKAGE. FRONT N OF
THE AREA NOW PROGGED TO STALL THERE WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA IMPACTING GNV THROUGH 21Z. STRONGEST STORMS JUST WEST
OF GNV MOVING LITTLE. HAVE TEMPO MVFR THERE WITH WIND VRB15G25KT DUE
TO TS BUT MAY HAVE TO AMEND WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND STRONGER
WIND. REST OF TERMINALS WILL HAVE VCTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVE.

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CONCERN ARE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE
SOUTH OF JAX BCH AND MOVING SE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MORE SCATTERED
STORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MAJOR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  95  70  96 /  30  10  10  20
SSI  75  93  75  91 /  20  10  10  20
JAX  73  94  72  95 /  30  10  10  20
SGJ  73  91  74  91 /  30  10  10  20
GNV  71  95  71  96 /  30  20  10  20
OCF  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

CARROLL/PETERSON/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1050 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-141000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
1050 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...MINOR FLOODING ON THE SATILLA RIVER AT ATKINSON...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES. A LATE ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE MAY ALSO AID IN THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING. BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
OF A BRUNSWICK TO LAKE CITY LINE.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

THE SATILLA RIVER NEAR ATKINSON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE TODAY IF WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS/SEC

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