Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
753 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM...

.UPDATE...SQUALL LINE...PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS...JUST WEST OF
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY RACING EAST AT 60 MPH. THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITHIN THE HOUR
AND MAKING IT TO THE EAST COAST DURING MID TO LATE EVENING.
IN ADDITION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS FORMING RIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE ALONG OUTFLOWS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND OBS INDICATING
THAT THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH (OUT OF GA) ACROSS
THE JAX METRO AREA. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN AT JAX INTL ARPT
LAST HOUR. FRONT MAY BE RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS THE SQUALL LINE APPROACHES. BOTTOM LINE...DANGEROUS
SITUATION SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEVERE STORMS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. APPEARS THE AREA WHERE MOST OF THE SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED WILL BE NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND AREAS
JUST NORTH AND SOUTH OF THAT BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA DOES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAJOR CONCERN IS THE TORNADO WATCH IN THE AREA AND
THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE. THERE IS ALSO A CLUSTER OF STORMS
FORMING AHEAD OF THE LINE. STORMS ARE RACING EAST AT 50 KNOTS AND
WILL BE APPROACHING THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
HAVE PREVAILING MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH TEMPO LIFR VSBY/IFR
CIGS AND WIND VRBG45KT FROM STORMS BETWEEN 01Z- 06Z. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE A TORNADO.

&&

.MARINE...MAIN CONCERN IS THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL BE RACING OFFSHORE BY LATE
THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE WATER
SPOUTS. WARM FRONT ACROSS WATERS RETREATS NORTH LATER THIS EVENING
AND COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  78  47  79 /  80   0   0   0
SSI  65  77  53  71 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  66  82  52  78 /  70   0   0   0
SGJ  67  83  56  75 /  50  20   0   0
GNV  66  82  52  83 /  70  10   0   0
OCF  67  82  53  85 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

PP/ARS/JD/MZ/AW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
337 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-031000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
337 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MOST OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MOST
OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. A VERY DANGEROUS
SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST
REGION WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING THE AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE STORMS THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ISOLATED
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS TOWARD THE REGION.

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPPER
SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION ARE UNDER AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...FLOOD WARNINGS FOR VARIOUS RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL  RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT RISES TO AREA RIVERS. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE ALAPAHA RIVER AT STATENVILLE...ALTAMAHA RIVER AT CHARLOTTE...
SATILLA RIVER AT ATKINSON...ALTAMAHA RIVER AT BAXLEY...SATILLA RIVER
AT WAYCROSS...ST MARYS RIVER AT MACCLENNY. REFER TO THE FLOOD STATEMENT
THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IN ALL AREAS UNDER THE TORNADO WATCH
AND FLOOD WATCH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009

GAZ136-152>154-164>166-030130-
BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
GLYNN-WAYNE-
839 PM EDT THU APR 2 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN
CHARLTON...EASTERN BRANTLEY...WAYNE...CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 930 PM
EDT...

AT 837 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF
ODUM TO 12 MILES WEST OF RAYBON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER
AREA OF STORMS WAS OVER WESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND
ODUM...SCREVEN...NAHUNTA...JESUP...HORTENSE...DOCTORTOWN...GARDI AND
ATKINSON THROUGH 930 PM. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3176 8191 3166 8183 3166 8180 3160 8171
      3154 8165 3150 8164 3148 8161 3144 8160
      3138 8154 3133 8143 3079 8156 3086 8198
      3128 8200 3131 8197 3133 8201 3182 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 274DEG 36KT 3178 8201 3129 8215

SHASHY

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