Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY STRETCHES OVER SC TO S/CTRL
GA AND OVER FL PANHANDLE. AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT IS NW OF OUR
AREA. BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND E OF UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND ONE STORM
ALREADY PRODUCED 50 DBZ ECHO UP TO 45 KFT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE ERN U.S. THURSDAY THEN BEGIN TO LIFT N FRIDAY. SCT
TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE THURS WITH UPR DISTURBANCES AGAIN
PROVIDING IMPETUS FOR ISOLD SVR ACTIVITY. GFS INDICATES A RIBBON
OF VORTICITY WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER AND WILL
KEEP 40-50% POPS FOR NE FL.

.LONG TERM...RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
WITH LIGHT E TO SE FLOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S INLAND
UNDER INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HEAT INDICES WILL SOAR INTO THE
100-105 RANGE ESPECIALLY SE GA AS UPR HIGH BUILDS OVER CAROLINAS.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL YIELD ONLY A SLGT CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER ACRS MOST OF AREA AND 30% OVER SRN TIER.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT SSI AS STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY W OF TERMINAL. OTHER TAF SITES HAVE VCTS THIS AFTN AND
WILL AMEND WHEN TSRA APPEARS IMMINENT. MVFR VIS AT VQQ AFTER MID.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN SCT
STORMS EACH AFTN AND EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SELY
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  93  70  95 /  20  40  20  30
SSI  75  89  75  89 /  20  30  20  20
JAX  72  92  72  93 /  20  40  20  30
SGJ  74  90  74  90 /  20  40  20  20
GNV  71  91  71  93 /  20  50  20  50
OCF  71  91  71  93 /  20  60  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/TRABERT/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
353 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-061000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
353 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG WITH
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD
THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
319 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

GAZ150-163-164-052000-
CHARLTON-CLINCH-WARE-
319 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
CHARLTON...EASTERN CLINCH AND SOUTHERN WARE COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 320 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER CLINCH COUNTY...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF FARGO...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS
A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3086 8234 3072 8232 3071 8259 3087 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 260DEG 6KT 3079 8251

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
320 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

GAZ150-163-164-052000-
CHARLTON-CLINCH-WARE-
320 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
CHARLTON...EASTERN CLINCH AND SOUTHERN WARE COUNTIES FOR STRONG
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 320 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF FARGO...MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL
AREAS THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3086 8234 3072 8232 3071 8259 3087 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 260DEG 6KT 3079 8251

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

FLZ021-052000-
SUWANNEE-
330 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN SUWANNEE
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

AT 331 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEWBURN...OR 6
MILES WEST OF LIVE OAK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND NEWBURN...LIVE OAK AND
HOUSTON THROUGH 400 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 3042 8302 3022 8285 3012 8312 3017 8323
      3038 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 327DEG 12KT 3031 8308

ZIBURA

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