Tornado Warning 110, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 302023
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
323 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

MSC103-159-302034-
/O.EXP.KJAN.TO.W.0110.000000T0000Z-091030T2030Z/
NOXUBEE MS-WINSTON MS-
323 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN WINSTON AND NORTHWESTERN NOXUBEE
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3293 8890 3293 8892 3292 8893 3292 8896
      3293 8897 3293 8912 3329 8886 3329 8861
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 214DEG 29KT 3326 8873

$$

BK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1055 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS NOTED EAST OF THE MS RIVER NEAR A GREENWOOD
TO BUDE MS LINE AND SHOULD BE NEAR INTERSTATE 55 BY NOON. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE
BEING KNOCKED DOWN INTO MID 50S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A LARGE AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO NOTED. WL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON BUT RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS AS THE WATER
STACKS UP VERSUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WAS ALLOWING
FOR A DECENT WARM UP AND MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WERE BEING OBSERVED TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO THE CURRENT
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. THE 12Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWED SOME
CAPPING AT 850MB AND 700MB BUT STRONG 50KT WINDS THROUGH SAME LAYER.
LOCAL RADARS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. CURRENT THINKING AND LOCAL WRF MEMBERS
SUGGEST THAT WL SEE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR
MOIST AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS ALTHOUGH PROGGED HELICITY VALUES INDICATE A TORNADO RISK AS
WELL. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE JUST ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT...ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP CURVES AND
REMOVED MORNING THUNDER WORDING IN THE WEST. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
/22/

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER TO OUR WEST
YESTERDAY IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA CURRENTLY...RUNNING
FROM JUST EAST OF LITTLE ROCK...TO BASTROP LA...TO JUST WEST OF
LAFAYETTE LA. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PRESSING EAST THROUGH THE
ARKLAMISS TODAY...GETTING TO NEAR THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY AND
THEN CLEARING EAST INTO ALABAMA BEFORE EVENING. DESPITE THE ABNORMAL
OCTOBER WARMTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH
ONLY LIFT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDING THE FORCING TO BREAK
THE CAP. BUT EVEN THEN...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE NOT MAKING FOR MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THERE IS NOT CURRENTLY MUCH THUNDER GOING ON WITH
THE SWATH OF LARGELY POST-FRONTAL RAIN GETTING READY TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST. DESPITE THE MEAGER AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION GOING ON RIGHT
NOW...THERE STILL IS SOME HEAVY RAIN AND MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
(SUCH AS SPC WRF AND OUR LOCAL WRF MEMBERS) DEPICT BOUTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION DEFINITELY STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. RAINFALL RATES ONCE YOU GET 50
TO 100 MILES WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE NOT GREAT...BUT THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TODAY AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO DELIVER RAINFALL RATES IN WELL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR
GIVEN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. THE PROSPECT OF THESE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
MAKES THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKELY FURTHER EAST THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WAS EXPANDED EAST TO A GRENADA...TO YAZOO CITY...TO LAKE LARTO LA
LINE. HORRENDOUS RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 5 INCHES NOW DONT LOOK
PARTICULARLY LIKELY ANYWHERE...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME FLOODING IS THERE.

THE WILDCARD OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DROPPING A QUICK ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
OF ANY FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING FURTHER EAST THAN THE MENTIONED LINE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUST GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE
WHOLE AREA. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WE WILL STILL BE
WATCHING OUT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 WHERE HEATING WILL ADD SOME
INSTABILITY AFTER MID MORNING. THE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS NOT
NEARLY AS GOOD AS IT WAS TO OUR WEST YESTERDAY WHEN SEVERAL
TORNADOES WERE REPORTED...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE. BUT...WIND SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE HIGH
AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW CLUSTERS OF SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE FRONT THAT
WILL USE THE SHEAR TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN RISK FROM
ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT NON-TRIVIAL
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL MEAN AN ISOLATED AND BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO BE SHIFTING ENTIRELY EAST
OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS PRECIP WILL BE ALL POST FRONTAL AND
LESSENING AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GET SQUEEZED OUT BY A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN. MODELS STILL ARE
WAVERING A BIT WITH TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS AS IF ANY RAIN LEFT IN THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS LIGHT PRECIP (PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE) TO
LAST IN SOME AREAS A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY. BUT SOME OF
THE QUICKER MODELS ALSO SUGGEST PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY WITH
ALL RAIN CLEARING OUT BY DAYBREAK. HOPEFULLY THE SUBSEQUENT SHIFT
WILL BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN THIS DETAIL A LITTLE BETTER...BUT IT IS
PROBABLY WORTH MENTIONING THAT CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WITH SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH OF LATE HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR AND THIS TREND MAY
CONTINUE WITH THIS COMING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COOL...ALTHOUGH NOT
TRULY COLD FOR LATE OCTOBER. I TRENDED MAV GUIDANCE TOWARD LOWER MET
GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS THROUGH 48 HOURS. THUS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S MIGHT BE THE RULE FOR SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND
THE 40 DEGREE MARK. /BB/

.LONG TERM...GOOD NEWS FOR THE EXTENDED. NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST AS
CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.

SUN INTO MON...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE WAKE OF S/W
PASSAGE LATE SAT. THIS SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND HELP
BUILD HIGH PRESSURE IN AT THE SFC. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ALSO
FILTER IN WITH DEWPTS ROUGHLY IN THE 40S FOR EARLY WEEK.

BY TUE...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY CONDITIONS ANCHORED IN PLACE AS NW
FLOW ALOFT GETS ENHANCED BY W COAST RIDGING. THE RESULT OVER US WILL
BE A EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN FREE DAYS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE TO DRY
THINGS OUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...GUID WAS DECENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE ONLY ADJ I MADE WAS TO LOWER LOWS A HANDFUL OF MORNINGS AT THE
RECENT COLD SPOTS. ALSO...GUID LOWS A COUPLE MORNINGS WERE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO LOWS. WITH GOOD RAD COOLING CONDITIONS FOR A HANDFUL OF
DAYS...WE SHOULD EASILY ACHIEVE NORMAL TYPE LOWS. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT ANALYZED ROUGHLY JUST TO THE WEST OF
GWO...JAN...TO BROOKHAVEN AS OF 15Z. BEHIND THE FRONT...LARGE SWATH
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS PERSISTING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST WITH SPEEDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25KTS. LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO SEE BREAKS AND
SMALL PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE EAST. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT OVER EASTERN MS AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF RAIN TO PRESS
EAST TO THE I-55 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY AND THEN INTO ALABAMA BY 5 TO 6
PM. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR VIS AND CEILINGS. ANTICIPATED RAIN CONTINUING IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LESSENING IN INTENSITY. FLIGHT CATS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE DUE MAINLY TO CEILINGS. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY/NORTHERLY AS THE
MENTIONED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  47  65  43 / 100  98  18   2
MERIDIAN      83  51  63  40 /  81 100  34   4
VICKSBURG     67  45  67  41 / 100  81  16   0
HATTIESBURG   84  53  65  41 /  76  93  30   2
NATCHEZ       67  45  67  43 / 100  84  17   0
GREENVILLE    63  46  65  41 / 100  68  13   1
GREENWOOD     74  45  64  41 / 100  87  16   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-051-052-
     056>058-064>066-072>074.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MSZ018-
     019-025>028-034>036-040>042-047.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042-047.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ARZ074-
     075.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

22/BB/CME/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
547 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-
040>042-047-311100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
547 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
PRODUCING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ABLE
TO CAUSE AT LEAST ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO THE SATURATED
STATE OF THE GROUND. RAINFALL RATES WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY NOT END IN MANY
AREAS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY..WITH THE MAIN RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO HIGH LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...THE OCCURRENCE OF AN ISOLATED AND BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT IS OTHERWISE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

MSZ028-029-032-037-043-044-048>050-053>055-059>063-311100-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CHOCTAW-ATTALA-MADISON MS-LEAKE-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
547 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS BY THIS EVENING COULD BE
UP TO 2 INCHES. AREAS AFFECTED BY THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY
EXPERIENCE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A
FEW INCIDENTS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..WITH THE MAIN RISK ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...DUE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THE
OCCURRENCE OF AN ISOLATED AND BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...BUT ARE OTHERWISE NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-051-052-056>058-064>066-072>074-
311100-
CLAY-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
547 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS BY MID EVENING COULD BE UP TO 1 OR 2 INCHES.
AREAS AFFECTED BY THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY EXPERIENCE PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT..WITH THE MAIN RISK ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...DUE TO HIGH
LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
AN ISOLATED AND BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATED GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT IS
OTHERWISE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
100 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLOOD            BASTROP                 32.77N 91.91W
10/30/2009                   MOREHOUSE          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER WAS COVERING MANY ROADS AROUND BASTROP BUT NO ROADS
            WERE CLOSED.

&&

MME