Severe Thunderstorm Warning 559, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1120 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS AFFECTING THE
ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL AR IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE SE...AND A COMPLEX OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSRA HAS
BEEN NOTED FROM THE NW CORNER OF THE JAN CWA TO JUST NORTH OF
MADISON...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE GTR VICINITY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 769 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM FOR OUR LA PARISHES AND THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SW MS...INCLUDING FRANKLIN. A WCN WAS
ISSUED TO CANCEL THE WATCH FOR ASHLEY COUNTY SINCE THE ACTIVE
CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THAT REGION AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED. EXPECT MORE SHRA/TSRA TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE JAN
CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A CROSSETT TO GREENVILLE TO GRENADA
LINE...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SVR WX WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.

THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE JACKSON METRO AREA
AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...GIVEN THAT VIS HAS
IMPROVED THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED SOME. THE
ADVECTION OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS OF 75 OR GREATER) OVER
A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR THE GROUND HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LOW
STRATUS OVER THE REGION SO FAR TODAY. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
AND THE THICK CIRRUS CANOPY MOVING IN FROM THE MCS OVER NORTHERN
LA...ALONG WITH CURRENT TREND OF SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TEMP
RISES...DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WERE LOWERED ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO
5 DEGREES FOR MOST ZONES. IT WILL BE OPPRESSIVELY HUMID FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S. THE GOOD NEWS HERE IS THAT
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS ON THE WAY
FOR FRIDAY UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /DH/

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL REPORTING SITES ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS NORTH OF HBG AS OF 16Z. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF
OVC004 OR LESS...BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR SHORTLY. VIS HAS
ALSO STARTED TO IMPROVE TO ROUGHLY 5SM IN BR FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A TVR TO MEI LINE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...VIS HAS BEEN
7SM OR BETTER WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY...THERE WILL ALSO BE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA FOR LOCATION SOUTH OF A
GLH TO MEI LINE THROUGH 00Z...WITH LESS COVERAGE AT GWO AND GTR. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A TVR TO
PIB LINE. MAX CB TOPS TO 55KFT. TURBULENCE IS ALSO EXPECTED IN VCT OF
TSRA. IN ADDITION...A PIREP REPORT OF TURBULENCE HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
9KFT IN CENTRAL MS. /DH/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       79  54  62  43 /  89  57   2   3
MERIDIAN      78  54  62  41 /  83  61   4   4
VICKSBURG     78  55  64  43 /  95  52   2   3
HATTIESBURG   82  60  67  43 /  79  80   6   3
NATCHEZ       81  56  66  44 /  87  72   2   3
GREENVILLE    75  51  60  42 /  80  26   1   5
GREENWOOD     75  50  58  41 /  89  29   2   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAMRICK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
535 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-161045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
535 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS..

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A MOIST AIRMASS AND GOOD INSTABILITY WILL
COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>066-072>074-161045-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
535 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A MOIST AIRMASS AND GOOD INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...UP TO 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.,.BUT ONE OR TWO TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1106 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 AM     HAIL             1 NE BEEKMAN            32.93N 91.87W
10/15/2009  E0.88 INCH       MOREHOUSE          LA   PUBLIC

            NICKEL HAIL REPORTED NORTHEAST OF BEEKMAN.

&&

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1139 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

MSZ031-151725-
LOWNDES MS-
1139 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS AT 1139
AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL LOWNDES COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

COHEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
102 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     ST. JOSEPH              31.92N 91.24W
10/15/2009                   TENSAS             LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF REPORTS A POSSIBLE TORNADO IN ST. JOSEPH. NO
            REPORTS OF DAMAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

27

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