Severe Thunderstorm Warning 554, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 151437
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
937 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

LAC067-083-151545-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0554.000000T0000Z-091015T1545Z/
MOREHOUSE LA-RICHLAND LA-
937 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT
FOR RICHLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN MOREHOUSE PARISHES...

AT 937 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM BASTROP TO 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BASTROP TO 40 MILES WEST OF
BUCKNER MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BASTROP BY 950 AM CDT...
  MER ROUGE BY 955 AM CDT...
  COLLINSTON BY 1000 AM CDT...
  OAK RIDGE BY 1015 AM CDT...
  START BY 1025 AM CDT...
  RAYVILLE BY 1035 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 9184 3264 9160 3246 9159 3218 9196
      3217 9197 3220 9198 3220 9201 3227 9200
      3230 9203 3239 9200 3252 9191 3267 9191
      3266 9194 3271 9197 3270 9205 3286 9207
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 330DEG 23KT 3283 9196 3263 9222
          3252 9258

$$

COHEN

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 151443
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
943 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

LAC067-083-151545-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0554.000000T0000Z-091015T1545Z/
MOREHOUSE LA-RICHLAND LA-
943 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT
FOR RICHLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN MOREHOUSE PARISHES...

AT 944 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM BASTROP TO 20 MILES WEST OF COLLINSTON TO 38 MILES WEST OF
BUCKNER MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BASTROP BY 950 AM CDT...
  MER ROUGE BY 955 AM CDT...
  COLLINSTON BY 1000 AM CDT...
  OAK RIDGE BY 1015 AM CDT...
  START BY 1025 AM CDT...
  RAYVILLE BY 1035 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 9184 3264 9160 3246 9159 3218 9196
      3217 9197 3220 9198 3220 9201 3227 9200
      3230 9203 3239 9200 3252 9191 3267 9191
      3266 9194 3271 9197 3270 9205 3286 9207
TIME...MOT...LOC 1444Z 330DEG 23KT 3279 9193 3259 9219
          3248 9255

$$

COHEN

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 151456
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
956 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

LAC067-083-151545-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0554.000000T0000Z-091015T1545Z/
MOREHOUSE LA-RICHLAND LA-
956 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT
FOR RICHLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOREHOUSE PARISHES...

AT 956 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM MER ROUGE TO 17 MILES WEST OF START TO 36 MILES WEST OF BUCKNER
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  OAK RIDGE BY 1010 AM CDT...
  START BY 1020 AM CDT...
  RAYVILLE BY 1030 AM CDT...
  BUCKNER...ALTO AND HOLLY RIDGE BY 1040 AM CDT...
  ARCHIBALD BY 1045 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3239 9200 3252 9191 3264 9191 3267 9191
      3266 9194 3271 9197 3281 9178 3264 9160
      3246 9159 3217 9197 3220 9198 3220 9201
      3227 9200 3230 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 1456Z 330DEG 23KT 3274 9175 3252 9215
          3244 9253

$$

COHEN

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 151511
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1011 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

LAC067-083-151545-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0554.000000T0000Z-091015T1545Z/
MOREHOUSE LA-RICHLAND LA-
1011 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT
FOR RICHLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOREHOUSE PARISHES...

AT 1011 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM OAK RIDGE TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUCKNER TO 31 MILES
WEST OF BUCKNER MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  START BY 1020 AM CDT...
  RAYVILLE BY 1030 AM CDT...
  BUCKNER...ALTO AND HOLLY RIDGE BY 1040 AM CDT...
  ARCHIBALD BY 1045 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3239 9200 3252 9191 3264 9191 3267 9191
      3266 9194 3271 9197 3281 9178 3264 9160
      3246 9159 3217 9197 3220 9198 3220 9201
      3227 9200 3230 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 1511Z 330DEG 23KT 3266 9169 3244 9209
          3236 9247

$$

COHEN

000 
WWUS54 KJAN 151527
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1027 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

LAC067-083-151545-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0554.000000T0000Z-091015T1545Z/
MOREHOUSE LA-RICHLAND LA-
1027 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT
FOR RICHLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOREHOUSE PARISHES...

AT 1027 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM OAK RIDGE TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUCKNER TO 23 MILES
WEST OF BUCKNER MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BUCKNER AND START BY 1040 AM CDT...
  ALTO...RAYVILLE AND ARCHIBALD BY 1045 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3239 9200 3252 9191 3267 9191 3269 9174
      3264 9160 3246 9159 3217 9197 3220 9198
      3220 9201 3227 9200 3230 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 330DEG 23KT 3262 9186 3235 9203
          3234 9232

$$

COHEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA BY MID MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE
INSTABILITY INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPES OF 1500-2300 J/KG AND LIS OF -7.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PEAKING AT AROUND 40 TO 45KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELL FORMATION. THERE WILL BE A LOW
TORNADO RISK WITH A LINEAR FLOW AND SREH VALUES PEAKING AT AROUND
150 TO 170 M2/S2...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CRAVEN-BROOKS
SIG SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 50K AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS SIG TORNADO PARAMETERS
CLIMB ABOVE 3 FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ALSO. THE LOCAL WRF MODELS INDICATE
THE BEST DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL
COULD BE AS FAR NORTH AS HWY 82 LATER THIS MORNING. SOME LIMITING
FACTORS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES OF 5.0 TO 5.5
C/KM AND H500 TEMPS OF -6. THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT HAIL
FORMATION...BUT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT
DEVELOPS. WITH THE LINEAR FLOW EXPECT AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
ACROSS THE AREA SO THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT
ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE VERY
EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID RAISE
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. H925 TEMPS RANGING FROM 4 TO 9C
COSMOLOGICALLY WOULD EQUATE TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY AND THAT IS SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV GUIDANCE./15/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BY FRIDAY EVENING THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE NORTH BUT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT BY
SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE OUR RATHER MOIST SOILS CAA IS EXPECTED TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LATEST MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE AMONG THE WARMEST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FOR SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE CUT MORNING LOWS CLOSER TO
ENSEMBLE MEANS. MODELS AGREE THAT A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE A
1030MB HIGH. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO FIZZLE OUT BY
THE TIME IT GETS TO OUR CWA. THE RESULTING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
DEEP NORTH FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY SATURDAY WHERE MOST SITES
SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF
OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA ALLOW
FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FALL SEASON THUS FAR. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THE ECMWF BUT THE 850MB ZERO DEGREE ISOTHERM IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR NORTHEAST WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 1-2C. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH
MIXING TO KEEP PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING BUT MORNING
LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOME SITES IN
THE NORTHEAST MAY SEE A LIGHT FROST. AGAIN LATEST MAV GUIDANCE WAS
AMONG THE WARMEST ENSEMBLE MEMBER AND HAVE TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES OFF
THE MORNING LOWS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY...WL SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY TUESDAY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF AND HAS AN OPEN TROUGH WITH A SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE GFS BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
AND NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MUCH CLOSER TO OUR CWA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ALSO RESULT IN
A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR OUR REGION THURSDAY. FOR NOW WL LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION AND LOOK FOR SOME
CONTINUITY IN LATER RUNS. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING NORTH
AND SOUTH WITH LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING TO BEGIN SETTING OFF A
FINAL ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA. THE FRONT WILL BRING VFR CLOUD LAYERS TO
OUR NW SECTIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHILE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA INTO EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. /40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  54  62  43 /  87  57   2   3
MERIDIAN      82  54  62  41 /  87  61   4   4
VICKSBURG     82  55  64  43 /  80  52   2   3
HATTIESBURG   86  60  67  43 /  60  80   6   3
NATCHEZ       86  56  66  44 /  62  72   2   3
GREENVILLE    78  51  60  42 /  80  26   1   5
GREENWOOD     74  50  58  41 /  80  29   2   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

15/22/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
535 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-161045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
535 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS..

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A MOIST AIRMASS AND GOOD INSTABILITY WILL
COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>066-072>074-161045-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
535 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A MOIST AIRMASS AND GOOD INSTABILITY
WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...UP TO 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.,.BUT ONE OR TWO TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
722 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

ARZ074-LAZ007-151300-
ASHLEY AR-MOREHOUSE LA-
722 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING ASHLEY COUNTY AND MOREHOUSE
PARISH...

AT 720 AM CDT...A LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER UNION COUNTY
ARKANSAS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY
ENTER WESTERN ASHLEY COUNTY AND WESTERN MOREHOUSE PARISH AROUND OR
JUST AFTER 800 AM CDT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM IF IT
MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. RESIDENTS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY THIS MORNING. BE ALERT FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON.

COHEN