Severe Thunderstorm Warning 414, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...TRENDS WORKING OUT RATHER WELL WITH HUGE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING WWD ACROSS OK TODAY. THE BAND OF HIGHER VAPOR
CONTENT ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO NWRN FL HAS
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THESE WERE HEADING SWD AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONTAL ZONE MOVING
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-NMM AND RUC PANNING OUT
WITH THE ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROUGHLY FROM THE DELTA
REGION INTO EAST CENTRAL MS THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ALOFT STILL COULD EASILY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AS
SBCAPES OF NEARLY 4000J/KG TEAM UP WITH DCAPES IN THE 1200-1500J/KG
RANGE. SOME NICE BREAKS IN THE HEAT ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
WHERE TEMPS HAD FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH THE NEARBY RAINFALL
AT MID AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...THE HEAT REMAINED IN TACT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS AROUND
100F AND HEAT INDEXES THAT HIT AS HIGH AS 109F IN PLACES. WILL KEEP
THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A
LAKE VILLAGE ARKANSAS TO MADISON TO LAUREL MISSISSIPPI LINE WHICH
SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE NEAR 70+ DEWPOINTS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY DRIER M-U60S ARE EXPECTED WITH NOT QUITE AS HOT TEMPS OVER
NERN HALF OF CWFA WHERE THE ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 72-77F RANGE TONIGHT AS THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS THINS OUT ON NLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOWN BY 1-3F FROM TODAY AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WILL
KEEP MENTION OF AFTERNOON STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE IN
THE FAR S. AN AXIS OF U30S K INDEXES IN 340K+ 850MB THETA E AIR AND
1.8 INCH PWAT AIR SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST 20 PERCENT COVERAGE ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE
WASHING OUT OVER THE SRN GULF STATES BUT SHOULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME
EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO KEEP A LID ON SOARING TEMPS. THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTER REMAINS PARKED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WITH AT LEAST TWO WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 300MB. THE
FIRST ONE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A SECOND ONE THURSDAY MORNING.
THEN THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN BEGINS BREAKING DOWN INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A MUCH FLATTER/WEAKER RIDGE AXIS FROM W TO E ALONG I-40
RETURNING TO OUR REGION. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM COULD DIVE OUR DIRECTION OFFERING EVEN MORE HEAT RELIEF AND
POSSIBLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES./40/ AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PUT IT:

RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH...AS BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS ARE NOW TRYING TO DRAG A
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA...AND MEANDER IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

IF THIS EXTENDED SOLUTION PANS OUT...ITLL CERTAINLY BE WELCOMED BY
MOST AS IT COULD BRING TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE DOWN RIGHT HOT
TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAIN WEVE SEEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. LEFT VCTS
IN AT MOST STATIONS SINCE ACTIVITY DEVELOPED SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z.
STORMS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT GWO/GLH/GTR/MEI THROUGH 01Z. WINDS GUSTS
TO 40 KTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO DIMINISH AFTER 02Z. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...BUT WINDS WERE ALREADY NORTHERLY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NO OBSTRUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH THE
HEAT THERE MAY BE SOME HAZE. AFTER 3Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH 9Z. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEI/HBG IN THE 9-13Z TIME
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NEAR JAN/MEI/HBG
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON./07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  99  72  98 /  19  16   7  10
MERIDIAN      72  98  70  97 /  22  13   6  10
VICKSBURG     74 100  72  99 /  17  20   7  10
HATTIESBURG   73 100  74  97 /  12  21   5  10
NATCHEZ       74  98  73  96 /  13  22   5  10
GREENVILLE    75  98  71  98 /  20   9   8   9
GREENWOOD     73  97  69  99 /  18   7   8   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ040>043-047>050-
     053>056-059>066-072>074.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
242 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-050>052-057-058-241915-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
JASPER-CLARKE-
242 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND PENNY SIZED HAIL.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 100...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
QUITMAN TO KOSCIUSKO TO GREENVILLE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE STRONG
STORMS.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD HOLD BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES WEDNESDAY. THOSE
VENTURING OUTDOORS SHOULD USE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HOT AFTERNOONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HEAT
INDEXES FREQUENTLY 100 TO 105 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>049-053>056-
059>066-072>074-241915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
242 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
APPROACHING 100. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...
STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND PENNY SIZED HAIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HOT AFTERNOONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HEAT
INDEXES FREQUENTLY 100 TO 105 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD HAZARD WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

07/40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KOSCIUSKO               33.06N 89.59W
06/23/2009                   ATTALA             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 12 EAST AND POWERLINES DOWN
            ALONG HIGHWAY 19 SOUTH.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E DERMOTT             33.53N 91.39W
06/23/2009                   CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE UPROOTED

&&

JALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
426 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

MSZ038-039-045-046-232210-
KEMPER MS-NESHOBA MS-NOXUBEE MS-WINSTON MS-
426 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF MASHULAVILLE...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN WINSTON...SOUTHWESTERN NOXUBEE...NORTHEASTERN
NESHOBA AND NORTHWESTERN KEMPER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

7

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