Severe Thunderstorm Warning 412, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1056 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

.UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL FORECAST AS WWD SHIFTING UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER ERN OK HEADING TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION WITH A BAND OF HIGHER VAPOR CONTENT
FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO NWRN FL. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING RUNS OF THE
WRF-NMM AND RUC HOLDING OUT HOPE FOR ISOLATED TSRA POPPING IN THIS
AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM THE DELTA REGION INTO EAST
CENTRAL MS. IF AND WHEN STORMS MANAGE TO POP...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ALOFT COULD EASILY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AS DCAPES
IN THE 1200-1500J/KG RANGE.

TEMPS RUNNING 1-2F HOTTER THAN MONDAY AND RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
TESTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THOSE INCLUDE:

SITE  6/23        6/24

GLH  99 (1953)  99 (1954)
GWO 100 (1954) 100 (1953)
HBG  99 (1960)  98 (1952)
JAN 101 (1897) 101 (1897)
MEI 101 (2006) 100 (1944)
TVR  98 (1969)  98 (1969)

UPDATES SHOULD ALL BE AVAILABLE AND TEXT ISSUES WITH OUR WEBPAGES
SHOULD ALSO BE RESOLVED./40/

REST OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY WILL
CONTINUE...BUT IT SHOULD BECOME MORE OF A MARGINAL EVENT AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE ADVISORY AS YET.

MEANWHILE...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IS SENDING
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN IN
ASSOC WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INTENSE SFC HEATING. PRECIP WATER
VALUES > 1.5 INCHES POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR TSTMS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP RELATIVELY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
STORMS AND 15-20KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW COULD HELP TSTMS ORGANIZE INTO
CLUSTERS WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE WIND POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF STRONG/SVR STORMS IN THE HWO. MODELS ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE
SLIGHTLY AGAIN OVER THE ARKLAMISS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...MORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO RELINQUISH ITS GRIP ON THE
REGION. SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DO LOOK TO ENTER BACK INTO THE
FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY TRIES TO SINK SOUTH
THROUGH CWA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH.

THE BEFORE MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...BUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING IT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR A FEW STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...AS BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS
ARE NOW TRYING TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA...AND MEANDER IT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

IF THIS EXTENDED SOLUTION PANS OUT...ITLL CERTAINLY BE WELCOMED BY
MOST AS IT COULD BRING TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE DOWN RIGHT HOT
TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAIN WEVE SEEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE
A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY SMALL...
GENERALLY 10 PERCENT OR LESS...SO IT WILL NOT BE ADDED TO ANY
FORECAST SITE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY...SO VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO OBSTRUCTIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH THE HEAT THERE MAY BE SOME HAZE EACH
AFTERNOON...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 5SM./07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON      101  74  98  72 /  12   9   4  10
MERIDIAN     100  71  97  70 /  13  11   7   8
VICKSBURG     99  73  98  72 /  11   8   5   9
HATTIESBURG  100  74  98  73 /  12  17   6   5
NATCHEZ       98  71  97  72 /  11  16   5   3
GREENVILLE   100  75  98  71 /  10  11   3   8
GREENWOOD    100  75  99  71 /  13   8   3   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
242 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-050>052-057-058-241915-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
JASPER-CLARKE-
242 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND PENNY SIZED HAIL.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 100...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
QUITMAN TO KOSCIUSKO TO GREENVILLE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE STRONG
STORMS.

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD HOLD BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES WEDNESDAY. THOSE
VENTURING OUTDOORS SHOULD USE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HOT AFTERNOONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HEAT
INDEXES FREQUENTLY 100 TO 105 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>043-047>049-053>056-
059>066-072>074-241915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
242 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY
APPROACHING 100. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 108
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...
STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND PENNY SIZED HAIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HOT AFTERNOONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HEAT
INDEXES FREQUENTLY 100 TO 105 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD HAZARD WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

07/40

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
155 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

MSZ026-231935-
GRENADA MS-
155 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER GORE SPRINGS AT 153 PM CDT...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING IS VERY DANGEROUS...PERSONS
NEAR GRENADA LAKE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN GRENADA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

7

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