Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1037 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

.UPDATED...WE KNEW CINCO DE MAYO WOULD BE EXCITING AND IT HAS NOT
DISAPPOINTED SO FAR. NEARLY GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL THROUGH THE ERN SIDE
OF THE METRO FROM AROUND RICHLAND TO PEARL TO FLOWOOD TO FANNIN
EARLIER HAS SET THE STAGE. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
GRIDS AS INCREASING SURGE OF LOW LEVEL JET WORKING NWD THROUGH THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY AND HEADING TOWARD THE MID SOUTH. SVR WW NOW
OUT FOR OUR DELTA REGION FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AND SOME
PORTION COULD DEVELOP A RISK FOR TORNADOES TOWARD MORNING IF SHEAR
PROFILES GET STRONG ENOUGH. POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND LEFT EXIT
REGION OF POWERFUL 200MB JET DIVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ADDING TO THE MIX. PORTIONS OF NWRN MS SHOULD BE THE
MOST LIKELY IMPACTED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. /40/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE KGLH/KGWO AREAS. INCREASING SLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE WRN GULF
AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT./40/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  81  67  86 /  44  80  44  28
MERIDIAN      67  81  66  86 /  34  74  53  28
VICKSBURG     68  82  68  89 /  48  77  39  27
HATTIESBURG   69  85  69  87 /  19  50  29  36
NATCHEZ       69  83  68  86 /  19  55  32  26
GREENVILLE    65  77  65  87 /  83  88  34  26
GREENWOOD     66  77  65  87 /  82  94  39  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-061930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
221 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD REACH THE DELTA
REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH AROUND NOON
WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION...RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA
FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOMETIME WITHIN THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR LOOK TO HAVE THE RISK OF SEEING A
COMPLEX OF STORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>066-072>074-061930-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
221 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AND PERHAPS SEVERE...AND LAST INTO THIS EVENING.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A
COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS EVENING...AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND INTO THE DAY PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT MAY BE NEEDED ON
WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

14

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1051 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

MSZ025-027-036-060430-
LEFLORE MS-CARROLL MS-HOLMES MS-
1051 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR CRUGER MOVING EAST...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SEVEN PINES AT 1050 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD
BECOME SEVERE.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN HOLMES...CARROLL AND SOUTHERN LEFLORE COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

40