River Flood Warning 75, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS
A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
AND SAGGING FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI BUT NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84. LOWER 70 DEW POINTS WERE NOTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH 12Z JAN SOUNDING SHOWED CAPPING BELOW 850MB...RECENT LAPS
SFC LIS WERE RUNNING -4 TO -6 WITH SBCAPE AROUND 3000J/KG SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WHERE A FEW STORMS WERE DEVELOPING. KDGX VWP SHOWED
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW 20-30KT FLOW BELOW 500MB. A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIE
OUT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A GREATER THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS ORGANIZING
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TRACKS ESE. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR NORTHEAST AS
WELL AS THE AREA WE CURRENTLY HAVE UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE WATCH UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY AND EXPANDED THE AREA EAST.
THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DROP A BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI BEFORE STALLING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HELP KEEP STRONG CONVECTION GOING IN THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TOUGH BASED
ON TIMING AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE NORTH AND WARMER SOUTH. MODELS HAVENT BEEN GREAT
HANDLING THESE COMPLEXES LATELY BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
SEE A MARKED DECREASE DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED POPS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH THE BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. /22/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE AND CHALLENGING
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK. MUCH OF WHAT OCCURS THU-FRI WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW THE
SYSTEM FROM TONIGHT-WED WORKS OUT. AS WAS MENTIONED WITH LAST NIGHTS
FORECAST...NW FLOW PATTERN WILL BE OVER THE REGION AND THAT BRINGS
MUCH TIMING UNCERTAINTY TO INDIVIDUAL WAVES. ADDITIONALLY...EACH
WAVE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH AN ATMOSPHERE THAT WAS DISRUPTED BY AN
EARLIER SYSTEM AND KNOWING WHERE BOUNDARIES AND INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL EXIST IS KEY...BUT DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT.
TRADITIONALLY...THESE NW FLOW SETUPS STEADILY PROGRESS TAD S WITH
EACH WAVE. HOWEVER...MODEL GUID IS NOT FOLLOWING THIS PROGRESSION
AND ACTUALLY PUSHES EACH STORM CLUSTER A TAD FURTHER N WITH EACH
WAVE PASSAGE. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HUGE
QUESTION MARKS EXIST ON TIMING EACH DISTURBANCE. ALSO...THESE SEEM
TO BE SMALLER IN SCOPE WHICH MAY ONLY RESULT IN SMALLER COMPLEXES.
HOWEVER...JUST BECAUSE THEY MAY BE SMALLER...DOESNT MEAN THEY WONT
PACK A PUNCH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE UNSTABLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF ANY STALLED SFC BOUNDARY WITH SOLID LAPSE RATES
IN PLACE. AT THIS TIME...I CAN SEE SOME COMPLEX OR A PORTION OF A
COMPLEX BRING SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS TO THE AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT
WITH EVEN A BIT MORE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHERE/WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR BEYOND THU NIGHT. THUS
I WILL HOLD OF ON MENTIONING ANY SVR FOR FRI INTO SAT. I DO HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION A RISK OF SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS FOR
THU INTO THU NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...I WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE
GUID...BUT STILL STAY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WHAT THEY SUGGEST. I
WILL MENTION THE RISK FOR THE N HALF OF THE CWA AS A START WITH
WINDS/HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY RISK FROM SOME COMPLEX OF STORMS.

AS FOR THE FORECAST ELEMENTS...GUID TEMPS AND POPS WERE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED AS IT DID SEEM TO COVER THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
LOCATION. I DID TWEAK HIGH TEMPS DOWN A TAD FOR THU AS UPPER 90S MAY
BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE AS WE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME VERY WET SOILS ALONG
WITH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR EVEN
PRECIP. AS FOR POPS...THE FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE N
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND I HAVE USED A MIX OF THE
LATEST GUID AND PREV FORECAST. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM
20-30% FROM FRI-MON.  /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR
NORTHERN SITES AS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THIS AREA. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO GIVE
PREVAILING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD.  SITES WHERE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WILL EXPERIENCE AT MINIMAL MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IF CAUGHT UNDER A HEAVIER
DOWNPOUR.  BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...A COMPLEX
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  SITES IN THE PATH OF THIS COMPLEX WILL AGAIN SEE A
PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  81  67  86 /  44  80  44  28
MERIDIAN      66  81  66  86 /  34  74  53  28
VICKSBURG     68  82  68  89 /  48  77  39  27
HATTIESBURG   68  85  69  87 /  19  50  29  36
NATCHEZ       69  83  68  86 /  19  55  32  26
GREENVILLE    65  77  65  87 /  83  88  34  26
GREENWOOD     66  77  65  87 /  82  94  39  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-025>042-047.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-016.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

SHORT TERM: 22
LONG TERM: CME
AVIATION: 14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-061930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
221 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD REACH THE DELTA
REGION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND AFFECT THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE REGION FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH AROUND NOON
WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION...RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA
FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOMETIME WITHIN THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS ANOTHER
COMPLEX OF STORMS EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR LOOK TO HAVE THE RISK OF SEEING A
COMPLEX OF STORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>066-072>074-061930-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
221 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AND PERHAPS SEVERE...AND LAST INTO THIS EVENING.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A
COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS EVENING...AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND INTO THE DAY PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT MAY BE NEEDED ON
WEDNESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

14

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