Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL CONTENDING WITH A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY CONTINUE
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. DRIER AIR MOVED
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING REDUCING CLOUD COVER
AND ALLOWING FOR A GREATER WARMUP THAN EXPECTED. THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF OUR CWFA HAS CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S OR HIGHER
WHILE OUR SOUTH HAS REMAINED UNDER THICKER CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. VICKSBURG CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S
SETTING A NEW RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A LITTLE
BETTER INSTABILITY IN OUR NORTH. DESPITE THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR...CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED BY AVAILABLE DEEP
MOISTURE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. DESPITE THE GREATER
MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH LESS INSOLATION HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THERE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
REMAIN A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK DRYLINE PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH
THE PRECEDING DRY LINE EAST OF A LINE FROM GREENWOOD TO MONROE.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE LINE AND
DROPPING INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE LINE. THE MODELS MOVE THE DRY LINE
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE BY 9PM AND TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR CWFA
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BACK INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTH WITH 40S GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
82. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD NOTT BE BREEZY...HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE
50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF OUR CWFA THURSDAY
NIGHT. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED OF OUR COOL DRY
AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES DOWN TO FREEZING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS OUR CWFA
FRIDAY. A WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND THE DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO
RESUME FROM THE WEST. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH
ALONG THE GULF STATES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER MOVING PCPN BACK INTO OUR NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONT...THE
APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE WETTER FOR SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. /22/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST COAST AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE SAME
AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS
WILL DROP INTO OUR REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME ARCTIC
AIR BACK TO OUR REGION FOR A LATE WINTER COLD BLAST. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
TOGETHER...SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS SNOW ICONS SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT
FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR MOVES
IN...THE MOISTURE WAS LIMITED AND MUCH OF THE LAYER FROM 850MB DOWN
REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING UP TO 00Z. MAINTAINED RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY
FROM AROUND 9Z THROUGH 000Z. LEFT RAIN OUT AFTER 6Z SUNDAY. DRY AIR
SHOULD BE SETTLING INTO THE REGION. THE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
CWA. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW VALUES TO FALL INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 20S. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT LAST LONG. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE BEST MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE GFS HAS VERY LITTLE
ML CAPE. MAINTAINED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. /07/

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLEARING LINE WEST OF THE
REGION WITH THE DRYLINE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR NW COUNTIES. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN IMPRESSIVE
CUMULUS FIELD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRACKING EAST
AT 50 KTS. EXPECT THE CONVECTION...GENERALLY MAINLY IN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST MS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS EVENING. SLY
WINDS 12-15KTS GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE SW. GETTING SOME GUSTY
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL KEEP WINDS UP...ESP IN
THE DELTA REGION. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  COLD FROPA SHOULD CROSS THE REGION TO SE(04Z). EXPECT VFR
TO TAKE OVER BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT IN NWLY FLOW OF 10-16KTS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
COULD GET SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 25K ON THURSDAY MORNING./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       41  55  28  60 /  26   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      42  54  28  59 /  41   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     43  55  29  62 /  12   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   47  61  29  60 /  57   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       43  56  31  63 /  25   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    38  52  29  61 /   3   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     37  50  28  59 /   7   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM: 22
LONG TERM: 07
AVIATION: 17

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

MSZ048-182130-
HINDS MS-
308 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER EDWARDS AT 308 PM CST...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE AT ANY TIME.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN HINDS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

MSZ052-182135-
LAUDERDALE MS-
319 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER MERIDIAN STATION AT 319 PM CST...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

MSZ065-066-182225-
COVINGTON MS-JONES MS-
355 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 19 MILES WEST OF LAUREL AT 355 PM
CST...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN JONES AND NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

MSZ043-048-049-182230-
HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-MADISON MS-
401 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
45 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED NEAR RIDGELAND AT 401 PM CST...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON...NORTHERN RANKIN AND NORTHEASTERN
HINDS COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             N RIDGELAND             32.42N 90.13W
02/18/2009  E0.25 INCH       MADISON            MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT WAVERLY ROAD AND RICE ROAD AND
            NEAR SCHOOL STREET.

&&

MME