Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS AT KSBN AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND PASSING WAVE
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH TOWARD KFWA
NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF VCTS GP THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT CIGS TO
STAY VFR UNLESS TAF SITE FALLS DIRECTLY BENEATH ONE OF THE
SCATTERED STORMS. CONCERN FOR FOG WED MORNING WITH GOOD RAD
COOLING AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WILL LIKELY NEED MENTION IN
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY IF KFWA SEES RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009/

UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST WX/POP/SKY GRIDS PER LATEST TRENDS IN
SAT/RAD AND ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTH CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF IN/MI BORDER ACTING TO FIRE
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DENOTED BY MLCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND SWELLING CU FIELD. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PERSIST/DEVELOP AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO NRN IN/NRN OH. DEVELOPING LAKE SHADOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER BERRIEN/CASS, MI/ST JOE, IN
COUNTIES.

AS FOR ANY SVR THREAT...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION DESPITE 90+ KT UPR LEVEL JET
STREAK. IN CLOUD 0C AND -20C LEVELS OF 15.4 AND 26.1 KFT
RESPECTIVELY WILL LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS AS
MLCAPE VALUES PUSH 2000 J/KG. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN
MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH
COLLAPSING STORMS TO A MINIMUM AS WELL THOUGH A 40+ KT GUST CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN CHALLENGES
OF THIS PERIOD CONCERN THE CHANCES FOR STORMS TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WAS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...ALONG WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE MARGINAL...AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE NAM/WRF 4 KM APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED
QUITE WELL...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER FAR NW OH AND ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALSO SUPPORTED BY SPC.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR STORMS
TODAY. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD HELP BRING CLEARING SKIES. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE COOL AND DRY NORTH
TRAJECTORY...WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT GOOD OVERALL
MODEL AGREEMENT ALONG WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY YIELDS FEW CHANGES
TO CURRENT FORECAST. ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY PART OF WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES CREEP INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TIMEFRAMES. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW ECMWF AND CURRENT FORECAST
GRIDS WHICH YIELDS CONSISTENT FORECAST.

MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EAST. SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PROGGED BY GFS TO MOVE
NORTH AND BRUSH THE AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS.
ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AND SLOWER WITH SHORT WAVE. GIVEN DRY
PATTERN OF LATE PREFER TO STICK WITH SLOWER AND DRIER SOLUTION OF
ECMWF. ALL OF THIS REFLECTED WELL IN CURRENT GRIDS SO ONLY SOME
MINOR TWEAKS MADE. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT MUCH TOO SMALL OF A CHANCE FOR
INTRODUCTION AT THIS TIME JUNCTURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WOULD ACT
TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY ANYWAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SIMPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
453 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

LMZ043-046-120900-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
453 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-120900-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
453 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009 /353 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
213 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             LIGONIER                41.47N  85.59W
08/11/2009  E0.25 INCH       NOBLE              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0900027

MCS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
213 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

INZ014>016-111915-
FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO IN-MARSHALL IN-
213 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

AT 212 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES WEST OF ROCHESTER...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WINAMAC...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ROCHESTER...
  MENTONE...
  AKRON...
  LEITERS FORD...
  TALMA...
  WALNUT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4112 8647 4114 8647 4120 8646 4119 8598
      4101 8603 4101 8612 4107 8648 4111 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 276DEG 19KT 4113 8642