Lakeshore Flood Statement 15, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
402 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN IN SHORT TERM LIES WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
CURVED UPR JET CURRENTLY TRAVERSING REGION WITH LARGE SCALE
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE COMBINING WITH LOW LVL CONVERGENCE
ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BNDRY TO FIRE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW IS PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION DESPITE 90+ KT UPR
LEVEL JET STREAK. IN CLOUD 0C AND -20C LEVELS OF 15.4 AND 26.1 KFT
RESPECTIVELY WILL LIMIT LARGE HAIL THREAT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS AS MLCAPE VALUES
PUSH 2000 J/KG. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN MID LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP ANY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH COLLAPSING STORMS TO AT BEST
LOW END SEVERE CRITERIA.  BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SVR WINDS WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF CWA WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND
30-35 KTS WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY LONGER-LIVED STORMS.  STILL
NO EXPECTATIONS FOR WIDESPREAD SVR CONVECTION BUT A NICE SOAKING
RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR AT LEAST HALF OF
THE SOUTHEAST CWA SO KEPT SCATTERED WORDING WITH A 50 POP FOR MUCH
OF SE CWA.

RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES IN BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE FOR A
PLEASANT STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER DAYS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND LIMITED
CLOUD COVER.  GOING TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE UPR 50S SAVE FAR SE. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING
IF RESIDUAL MOISTURE CLEARS OUT A TOUCH SLOWER THAN MODELS INDICATE
WHICH IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION
TODAY.  NAM CLOSES OFF H5 LOW TO THE SE OF CWA OVER CEN/SRN OH BUT
ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS SHOULD STAY SE OF US WED/WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...

RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY. WHILE THE
THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TIMING AND ACTUAL OCCURRENCE IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING SET OF FORECASTS. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S AND 70S.

THAT BEING SAID...DO HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING TROF WILL ALLOW STEADILY
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
WEEKEND.

WHILE THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS OVER THE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLE OF EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...AND WHILE WE
HAVE BEEN IN A DRY PATTERN...HAVE INCORPORATED THE HPC GUIDANCE IN
THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED. INTRODUCING CHANCE PRECIPITATION FOR
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDS AT KSBN AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND PASSING WAVE
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH TOWARD KFWA
NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF VCTS GP THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT CIGS TO
STAY VFR UNLESS TAF SITE FALLS DIRECTLY BENEATH ONE OF THE
SCATTERED STORMS. CONCERN FOR FOG WED MORNING WITH GOOD RAD
COOLING AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WILL LIKELY NEED MENTION IN
SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES...ESPECIALLY IF KFWA SEES RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SIMPSON
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...SIMPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
453 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

LMZ043-046-120900-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
453 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-120900-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
453 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2009 /353 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>