River Flood Warning 48, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

NEAR TERM FOCUS ON CONVECTION PUSHING THROUGH CWA WITH SVR/TOR
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT SURGING NORTH INTO MY
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THIS WILL BE WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TOR WATCH OUT THROUGH 8PM
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30.

BEHIND FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS INTRUSION OF
STRATOSPHERIC AIR COMBINES WITH INTENSE COLD ADVECTION TO
TRANSPORT WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HAVE HEIGTENED WORDING IN CURRENT
NPW...AND WILL WATCH FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO WARNING FOR 60MPH
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

WINDS GRADUALLY DIE OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S BY MORNING...CLOSER TO THE RECENT MET/NAM GUIDANCE
AS THE NAM HAS BEEN MORE ON TOP OF THINGS IN TERMS OF NEAR TERM
TRENDS WITH THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW.

QUIET DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
GIVEN T925 TEMPS QUICKLY BACK ABOVE FREEZING HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
WARMER MAV NUMBERS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTING HONING IN ON A SOLUTION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH LARGE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AS NEXT SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
EJECTS NORTH AND EAST.  GFS HAS TRENDED MUCH FASTER WITH THE
APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH WHILE THE NAM IS SLOWER. SREFS ARE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF SUPPORTING THE
SLOWER NAM.  GIVEN SUCH A STRONG VORTMAX ACTING AS THE
KICKER...WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION.
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...LLEVEL JET WILL CRANK UP...PUSHING SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK NORTH...ALONG WITH AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING AREA OF RAINFALL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.  WILL
UP POPS TO LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AND THIS CERTAINLY
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER AS PWATS SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY REACH ABOVE 1.25...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

VERY FEW CHANGES TO LONG TERM GRIDS WITH MAIN FOCUS ON START OF THE
PERIOD WITH NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARMER TEMPS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO
WORK NORTH ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. PREV SHIFT BUMPED UP POPS
TO LIKELY FOR ALL BUT NW AREAS AND HAVE WENT LIKELY EVERYWHERE GIVEN
TRENDS. WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY FOR TUES AFTN/EVE
BUT STILL SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR. WITH THE LOW TRACK MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THE CURRENT
SYSTEM...QUITE POSSIBLE ENTIRE AREAS GETS INTO IT WITH RESULTANT SVR
THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ON THIS. STRONG WINDS STILL
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH MAY NOT PASS THROUGH TILL CLOSER
TO THE FIRST PART OF WEDS IF THE NAM12 IS CORRECT. CURRENTLY A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW IN NW AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE I SUSPECT WE WILL
BE ABLE TO REMOVE THIS...WILL LEAVE ALONE WITH GFS STILL SHOWING THE
COLD AIR FLYING IN AFTER 6Z WEDS.

850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE -8 TO -13 C RANGE AND LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE. MODELS
TRY TO WARM THINGS BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT CONCERN THAT COLD AIR WILL HOLD ON LONGER THAN DEPICTED
SO WILL GO WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ON SUNDAY BUT NOT GO ANY HIGHER AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS/...

IFR SHRA/TSRA ATTM AT BOTH SBN/FWA. EXPECT OFF AN ON SHRA TO
CONTINUE AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING A LINE OF IFR
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z. BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES...A BRIEF BREAK TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AS DRYSLOT WORKS
IN...BUT ONLY FOR A SHORT TIME. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BE SEVERE. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
LINE...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN SOME LIGHT SHRA...BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20G40KTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO
NORTHWESTERLY AND SUBSIDING TO 15G25KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR THE
DAY ON MONDAY...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT WITH BOTH SITES
RETURNING TO VFR AROUND 12 UTC. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR INZ003>009-
     012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
     016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...ARNOTT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
601 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-091015-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
601 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 /501 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY... POSSIBLY CAUSING FLOODING OF
RIVERS... STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY... A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME FLOODING OF RIVERS IN THE AREA DUE TO THIS WEEKEND'S
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-091015-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
601 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WEST GALES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAM_AREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
604 PM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     CECIL                   41.22N  84.60W
03/08/2009                   PAULDING           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CR 230 AND 89 NORTH OF CECIL HEADED TOWARDS DEFIANCE
            AND PAULDING COUNTY LINE. UNCONFIRMED BRIEF TOUCHDOWN.
            NO DAMAGE REPORTED YET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902504

LMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
605 PM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     TORNADO          5 W SHERWOOD            41.29N  84.65W
03/08/2009                   DEFIANCE           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            JERICHO RD AND US 127. TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND
            BY 2 SPOTTERS

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902505

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
611 PM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     SHERWOOD                41.29N  84.55W
03/08/2009                   DEFIANCE           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUD APPROACHING SHERWOOD OHIO. TRAINED
            SPOTTERS REPORT IT KEEPS TOUCHING DOWN AND GOING BACK
            UP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902506

LMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
612 PM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WARSAW                  41.24N  85.85W
03/08/2009  M3.20 INCH       KOSCIUSKO          IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902507

LMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
614 PM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE LAGRANGE          41.65N  85.39W
03/08/2009  M2.04 INCH       LAGRANGE           IN   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL 2.04 INCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902508

LMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
629 PM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     TORNADO          NEY                     41.38N  84.52W
03/08/2009                   DEFIANCE           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NEY FIRE DEPARTMENT FOLLOWING A FUNNEL CLOUD AT THE
            BEND AND MOTTER ROAD. DAMAGE AT BUCKSKIN ROAD AND
            127...BARN DOWN AND TREES DOWN. HOMES DAMAGED AT 1100
            BLOCK OF ST RT 18 IN SHERWOOD. NO INJURIES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902509

LMK