River Flood Warning 40, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1045 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

.UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKING VERY GOOD AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS PRETTY MUCH IN THE 40S CWA-WIDE.
BAND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FN CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE H850 LEVEL IS BEGINNING TO PULL NORTH AND EAST AS FLOW
AT THIS LEVEL SOUTH OF THE 850 FRONT BEGINS TO BACK SOME IN
RESPONSE TO THE INTENSE SHORTWAVE PULLING INTO IOWA/MISSOURI ATTM.

FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE NAM EVOLUTION IN THE NEAR TERM GIVEN IT/S
SUPERIOR INITIALIZATION AT 12UTC...ALONG WITH THE RUC WHICH IS
QUITE SIMILAR...IT APPEARS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO A
LINE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ROUTE 30 AND ROUTE 6...PRETTY MUCH
BISECTING THE CWA. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SVR POTENTIAL IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY AS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES LATER TODAY WITH 90-100KT SPEED MAX AT 500 HPA. SHEAR
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE AT ALL LEVELS AND AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE INSTABILITY. COLD POOL ALOFT
APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA AROUND 21Z...JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH 300-500 J/KG OF
CAPE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE CWA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. THIS WILL BE PLENTY GIVEN
THE STRONG DYNAMICS TO DEVELOP ROBUST CONVECTION WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD...AND WELL POSITIONED WET BULB ZERO LINE. SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THINKING AND THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE SVR MENTION IN MY OH/IN ZONES.

ALL THE FLAGS LOOK FINE GIVEN SOME MINOR FLOOD PROBLEMS THIS
MORNING AND SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. ALSO...WIND THREAT LOOKS
INTACT THIS EVENING WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...IN TANDEM WITH AN INTENSE STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR.

UPDATED GRIDS/PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN, LOW CIGS, AND SCT TSTMS CONTG
NORTH OF STNRY FRONT ACROSS NRN IN/IL ATTM. FRONT SHOULD LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN ALLOWING FOR BRIEF IMPROVEMENT, BUT
WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT TOWARD EVE. ADDITIONAL
TSTMS ARE PSBL WITH THE FROPA. BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG WLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KTS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WRAP
AROUND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009/

UPDATE...
TEMPS SOUTH OF FRONT OVER CENTRAL IL/IN IN THE L-M60S ATTM. MODELS
ARE A BIT TOO COOL IN THIS AREA. EXPECT THIS WARMER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE. BUMPED UP
HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
U40S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE NE MAY ACTUALLY
OCCUR EARLY THIS EVE AFTER 00Z.

DISCUSSION...
STNRY FRONT FROM OH TO KS THIS MORNING WAS THE FOCUS FOR A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK OF TSTM ACTIVITY
ATTM REMAINS WEST OF OUR AREA FROM IL-KS CLOSER TO NOSE OF LLJ. AS
STRONG SHRTWV LIFTS NE FROM SRN PLAINS TODAY, ATTENDANT SFC/H85
LOW WILL DEEPEN AND LLJ WILL ALSO PROGRESS NE CAUSING UPSTREAM
SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. ALREADY OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE CWA AND APPEARS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TODAY SO CONTD WITH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
THIS EVE. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTN. SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP AS THIS
OCCURS. WK SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH
HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF CDFNT MOVG THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN/THIS
EVE WITH BEST CHC IN SOUTH WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. BEHIND THE
FRONT A STRONG PRESSURE/ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO CAA SHOULD
ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO SFC FOR A 3-6HR PD WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40KT EXPECTED, THUS, ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY PROVIDING FAIR WX.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGS INTO MEAN WRN TROF. WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED, THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO AGAIN RECOVER TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS IN THE U40S-L50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...A LITTLE COLDER
NEAR LM WHERE LAKE BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS GRADIENT
DIMINISHES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK NORTH INTO
THE LWR OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV DIGS INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CAUSING SFC LOW TO DVLP OVER CO/KS. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVER-RUNNING SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING SO BUMPED UP
POPS INCREASED POPS 20-30% DURING THIS PERIOD. DEEP LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TO THE UPR GRTLKS
TUE NGT WITH STRONG CDFNT PUSHING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. AGAIN SOME
WK INSTABILITY SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR, HWVR
QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AS THE CDFNT MOVES
THROUGH, SO LEFT POPS FOR TUE NGT IN THE CHC CATEGORY. NO SGFNT
CHANGES MADE TO DAYS 4-7, WHICH STILL APPEARS TO BE A COOL/DRY PD
AS CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE GRTLKS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     /5 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-
     032>034.

MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077>081.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MIZ077>081.

OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
UPDATE...ARNOTT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
601 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-091015-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
601 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009 /501 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY... POSSIBLY CAUSING FLOODING OF
RIVERS... STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY... A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME FLOODING OF RIVERS IN THE AREA DUE TO THIS WEEKEND'S
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-091015-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
601 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WEST GALES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE PERIOD MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAM_AREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1116 AM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE WHITE PIGEON      41.78N  85.59W
03/08/2009  M1.31 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0703 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LA PORTE                41.61N  86.71W
03/08/2009  M1.55 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.83 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 8 HOURS. STORM TOTAL
            1.55 SO FAR.

0703 AM     FLOOD            LA PORTE                41.61N  86.71W
03/08/2009                   LA PORTE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS HIGH WATER STREET FLOODING IN THE
            TYPICAL AREAS OF LA PORTE

0743 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NILES                   41.83N  86.25W
03/08/2009  M1.30 INCH       BERRIEN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0855 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HEADLEE                 40.90N  86.66W
03/08/2009  M1.65 INCH       WHITE              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR. SPOTTER REPORTS MANY FIELDS ARE
            FLOODED AND SIDE DITCHES ARE FULL.

0901 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW NORTH WEBSTER      41.30N  85.72W
03/08/2009  M2.02 INCH       KOSCIUSKO          IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SINCE 7AM SATURDAY

0914 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ROCHESTER               41.06N  86.20W
03/08/2009  M1.80 INCH       FULTON             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0931 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COLUMBUS GROVE          40.92N  84.06W
03/08/2009  M1.80 INCH       PUTNAM             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL. SPOTTER REPORTS YARD FLOODING IN
            COLUMBUS GROVE.

1034 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S ST. JOSEPH          42.07N  86.49W
03/08/2009  M0.68 INCH       BERRIEN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

1036 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COLUMBUS GROVE          40.92N  84.06W
03/08/2009  M1.75 INCH       PUTNAM             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT FIELD FLOODING
            NEAR COLUMBUS GROVE.

1042 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BUCHANAN                41.83N  86.37W
03/08/2009  M2.00 INCH       BERRIEN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO INCHES SO FAR IN BUCHANAN

1106 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNW HUDSON            41.59N  85.11W
03/08/2009  M2.01 INCH       STEUBEN            IN   COCORAHS

            TOTAL OF 2.01 INCHES THROUGH 11 AM. AN ADDITIONAL 0.59
            INCHES HAS FALLEN BETWEEN 7 AND 11 AM.

1112 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW PERU              40.74N  86.10W
03/08/2009  M2.49 INCH       MIAMI              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2.49 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR. PONDING OF WATER REPORTED
            IN AREAS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902460 IWX0902461 IWX0902462 IWX0902463 IWX0902464
IWX0902465 IWX0902466 IWX0902467 IWX0902468 IWX0902469 IWX0902470
IWX0902471 IWX0902472

LWF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1119 AM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     FLOOD            HUNTINGTON              40.88N  85.51W
03/08/2009                   HUNTINGTON         IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS CLOSED WITH WATER APPROACHING
            SOME RESIDENCES IN THE HUNTINGTON AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902473

ARNOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1124 AM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     FLOOD            BLUFFTON                40.74N  85.17W
03/08/2009                   WELLS              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS COVERED BY WATER. WATER
            APPROACHING RESIDENCES IN RURAL AREAS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902474

ARNOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1146 AM EDT SUN MAR 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COLUMBIA CITY           41.16N  85.48W
03/08/2009  M2.44 INCH       WHITLEY            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.44 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 7 PM SATURDAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902475

LWF