Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TSRA OVER CENTRAL IL PUSHING
EAST TOWARD INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS FOUND ACRS CENTRAL WI
ACRS KS TO LOW PRES IN CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS ACRS CENTRAL INDIANA IS
MORE MOIST AND AND WARMER THAN 24HRS AGO...BY ABOUT 10
DEGREES...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE POPS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND WL
USE A BLEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD INDIANA TODAY
AND KEEP A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. ONGOING
TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MAX HEATING
OCCURS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
GOOD INSTABILITY WITH OBSCENE CAPE NEAR 4K J/KG AND LI'S BETWEEN -6
AND -9 DEPENDING UPON YOUR FAVORITE MODEL CHOICE. BIG CAVEAT IS
SHEAR...IT IS MINIMAL. FURTHERMORE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN TO THOSE LEVELS IN WHAT SEEMS
LIKE WEEKS. STILL GIVEN THE ABOVE INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA WL CONTINUE TO CARRY PCPN CHCS. ONGOING FORECAST POPS OF
40 SEEM QUITE APPROPRIATE. BASED UPON H8 TEMPS...WL LEAN 1-2 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS ON HIGHS TDY.

LINGERING DAYTIME CONVECTION COULD LINGER IN TO THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT AND WL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS. EVEN AT 06Z
WED...CAPES REMAIN OVER 3K J/KG WITH LI'S NEAR -7 TO -8. TIME
SECTIONS SHOW LOWER LVL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT. THE PROBLEM IS THE
LACK OF SHEAR...AND THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT. H8 SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A NOCTURNAL JET THAT MIGHT DRIVE STORMS. THUS WL CONTINUE A LOW
CHC POP AND STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS AS THEY APPEAR VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN MOIST DEW POINT TEMPS.

NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES ON WED AND WED NIGHT WHILE WARM
AND MOIST AIR IS IN PLACE AT THE SFC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATE FAVORABLE CAPE AND LI/S ALBEIT NOT AS FAVORABLE AS TUESDAY.
GIVEN THIS WL STILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHC POPS FOR TSRA. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN H8 TEMPS WL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS WHICH MIGHT
BE 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS. WL AGAIN STICK CLOSE TO THE
MAVMOS FOR LOWS.

BASED UPON THE ONGOING PATTERN CAN FIND LITTLE REASON TO NOT INCLUDE
POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE ROCKIES...SPILLING WEAK
SHORT WAVES TOWARD INDIANA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. NOT TO MENTION THE
LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ACRS SRN INDIANA. THUS WL KEEP LOW CHC POPS
IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE TYPE HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS 850 MB JET INCREASES. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFTING AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF THESE MOVING TOWARDS SW INDIANA.

FARTHER NORTH TIMING IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAKER
THIS MORNING. AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY EVENING.
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LOW CHANCES AND
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL MENTION CB IN KBMG AND KHUF
DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND KIND AND KLAF AFTER 14Z TUESDAY. WL
ALSO HAVE TO TAKE A LAST SECOND LOOK TO SEE IF THE WCNTRL IL STORMS
HOLD TOGETHER AND STAY ON TRACK AND THUS MAY NEED TO ADD CB'S
OVERNGT TO IND.

EXCEPT FOR THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...JH/MK
PUBLIC...PUMA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-050800-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
350 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE ARE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...LARGE
HAIL AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ON THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PUMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
406 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 AM     HAIL             NEW CASTLE              39.92N 85.36W
08/04/2009  E1.50 INCH       HENRY              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL AT 15TH AND GRAND IN NWE CASTLE

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 AM     HAIL             BEDFORD                 38.86N 86.49W
08/04/2009  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
447 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

INZ042-049-040915-
HENRY-RANDOLPH-
447 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HENRY AND SOUTHERN
RANDOLPH COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM EDT...

AT 446 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOSANTVILLE...OR 15
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MUNCIE. THIS STORM NEARLY STATIONARY.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BLOUNTSVILLE AROUND 515 AM EDT...

MK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
451 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 AM     HAIL             3 SE BEDFORD            38.83N 86.45W
08/04/2009  M0.75 INCH       LAWRENCE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP