River Flood Advisory 10, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
113 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/18Z TAFS

TSRA COMPLEX WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT AT TAF VALID TIME. WILL INCLUDE
TEMPO TS WHERE NECESSARY. AREA OF RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS LINGERS
BEHIND THE TSRA COMPLEX FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL TSRA MAY FIRE AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY TIMING/COVERAGE IS
LOW. WILL JUST INCLUDE CB MENTION FOR NOW.  THANKS TO THE PLENTIFUL
RAIN TODAY EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES. FOG
WILL BURN OFF WED MORNING AS SCT-BKN CU FORMS.

&&

.UPDATE...

HAVE THROWN OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO UP POPS AT LEAST THIS MORNING
WHERE TSRA ALREADY DEVELOPING. ALSO HAVE ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GETTING EVEN HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON.
TSRA ACROSS IL MOVING TOWARD THE AREA...AND WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...LOOK FOR ANOTHER UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING
TO UP POPS AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TSRA OVER CENTRAL IL PUSHING
EAST TOWARD INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS FOUND ACRS CENTRAL WI
ACRS KS TO LOW PRES IN CENTRAL KS. AIR MASS ACRS CENTRAL INDIANA IS
MORE MOIST AND AND WARMER THAN 24HRS AGO...BY ABOUT 10
DEGREES...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE POPS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN AND WL
USE A BLEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD INDIANA TODAY
AND KEEP A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACRS THE FA. ONGOING
TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS LOST. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MAX HEATING
OCCURS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
GOOD INSTABILITY WITH OBSCENE CAPE NEAR 4K J/KG AND LIS BETWEEN -6
AND -9 DEPENDING UPON YOUR FAVORITE MODEL CHOICE. BIG CAVEAT IS
SHEAR...IT IS MINIMAL. FURTHERMORE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN TO THOSE LEVELS IN WHAT SEEMS
LIKE WEEKS. STILL GIVEN THE ABOVE INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA WL CONTINUE TO CARRY PCPN CHCS. ONGOING FORECAST POPS OF
40 SEEM QUITE APPROPRIATE. BASED UPON H8 TEMPS...WL LEAN 1-2 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS ON HIGHS TDY.

LINGERING DAYTIME CONVECTION COULD LINGER IN TO THE EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT AND WL NEED TO CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS. EVEN AT 06Z
WED...CAPES REMAIN OVER 3K J/KG WITH LIS NEAR -7 TO -8. TIME
SECTIONS SHOW LOWER LVL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT. THE PROBLEM IS THE
LACK OF SHEAR...AND THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT. H8 SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A NOCTURNAL JET THAT MIGHT DRIVE STORMS. THUS WL CONTINUE A LOW
CHC POP AND STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS FOR LOWS AS THEY APPEAR VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN MOIST DEW POINT TEMPS.

NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES ON WED AND WED NIGHT WHILE WARM
AND MOIST AIR IS IN PLACE AT THE SFC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATE FAVORABLE CAPE AND LI/S ALBEIT NOT AS FAVORABLE AS TUESDAY.
GIVEN THIS WL STILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHC POPS FOR TSRA. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN H8 TEMPS WL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS WHICH MIGHT
BE 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS. WL AGAIN STICK CLOSE TO THE
MAVMOS FOR LOWS.

BASED UPON THE ONGOING PATTERN CAN FIND LITTLE REASON TO NOT INCLUDE
POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE ROCKIES...SPILLING WEAK
SHORT WAVES TOWARD INDIANA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. NOT TO MENTION THE
LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY ACRS SRN INDIANA. THUS WL KEEP LOW CHC POPS
IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE TYPE HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...CS
PUBLIC...PUMA
UPDATE...CS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
900 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-051300-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
900 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND RESULTANT
FLOODING...DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING OBSERVED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
106 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E ATTICA              40.29N 87.21W
08/04/2009                   FOUNTAIN           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ *** LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TREE DOWN NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF BETHEL AND RIVERSIDE ROAD. A
            MOTORCYCLE WAS INVOLVED IN AN ACCIDENT WITH THE TREE AND
            HAD TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE HOSPITAL. ALSO REPORTED

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS WARREN COUNTY.

&&

MRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
117 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     TSTM WND GST     DALEVILLE               40.12N 85.56W
08/04/2009  M0 MPH           DELAWARE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            55 MPH MEASURED WIND GUST FOR THUNDERSTORM BY TRAINED
            SPOTTER AT DALEVILLE. NO DAMAGE REPORTED AT THIS LOCATION
            AT THIS TIME.

0110 PM     TSTM WND GST     DALEVILLE               40.12N 85.56W
08/04/2009  M55 MPH          DELAWARE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NO DAMAGE REPORT FROM THIS LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

&&

APS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
118 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENFIELD              39.79N 85.77W
08/04/2009                   HANCOCK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEALTHY 12 INCH TREE BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            MCENSY AND APPLE ST.

1200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLOOMINGTON             39.17N 86.52W
08/04/2009                   MONROE             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 37 AND 46.

1250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELWOOD                  40.28N 85.84W
08/04/2009                   MADISON            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            12 INCH DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN AT STATE ROUTE 13 AND
            400 N RD.

0115 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NE COLUMBUS             39.21N 85.91W
08/04/2009  M4.00 INCH       BARTHOLOMEW        IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
124 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEBANON                 40.05N 86.47W
08/04/2009                   BOONE              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN IN THE 300 BLOCK OF SOUTH
            MERIDIAN.

1222 PM     TSTM WND DMG     INDIANAPOLIS            39.78N 86.15W
08/04/2009                   MARION             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            8 TO 9 INCH DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF 10TH AND WILSON. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

MRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
126 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     FLOOD            INDIANAPOLIS INTL AIRP 39.72N 86.29W
08/04/2009                   MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AIRPORT DRAINAGE INTO STERLING RUN IS BACKING UP OVER
            PERIMETER RD.

&&

MRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
134 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     S DANVILLE              39.76N 86.52W
08/04/2009                   HENDRICKS          IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 INCH DECAYED LIMB BLOCKING HWY 39 SOUTH OF DANVILLE.

1240 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENWOOD               39.62N 86.11W
08/04/2009                   JOHNSON            IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CAR STRANDED IN WATER ON PADDOCK ST...JUST SOUTH OF SMITH
            VALLEY.

&&

MRD