Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 191527
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1027 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

ILC143-179-191535-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-090619T1600Z/
TAZEWELL IL-PEORIA IL-
1027 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN PEORIA AND NORTHERN
TAZEWELL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PEORIA COUNTY
UNTIL 3 PM. BE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

LAT...LON 4078 8898 4076 8939 4084 8943 4094 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 1525Z 255DEG 37KT 4080 8940

$$

ILC203-191600-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-090619T1600Z/
WOODFORD IL-
1027 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WOODFORD COUNTY...

AT 1025 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR METAMORA...OR 9 
MILES NORTHWEST OF EUREKA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM 
PRODUCED ONE INCH HAIL IN PEORIA AT 1008 AM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
CAZENOVIA...ROANOKE...BENSON...PANOLA AND MINONK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4078 8898 4076 8939 4084 8943 4094 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 1525Z 255DEG 37KT 4080 8940

$$

MILLER

000 
WWUS53 KILX 191534
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1034 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

ILC203-191544-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-090619T1600Z/
WOODFORD IL-
1034 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WOODFORD COUNTY IS 
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CDT

LAT...LON 4078 8898 4076 8939 4084 8943 4094 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 1534Z 255DEG 37KT 4082 8928

$$

MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
656 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 315 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG PERIPHERY OF
700MB CAP AND NOSE OF LLJ IN LOWER GRT LAKES...AS WELL AS COOL
SIDE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NEB. LOCAL AREA REMAINS CAPPED UNDER
+12C 700MB TEMPS WHICH EXTEND SW INTO TX. 07Z SFC MAP SHOWED WARM
FRONT DRAPED FROM NRN IA...SE INTO NRN IL AND CENTRAL IN. SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY LARGE POOL OF MID 70S DEWPOINTS...COMBINED WITH TEMPS
IN UPPER 70S TO PRODUCE LOW/MID 80S HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 3 AM ACROSS
THE CWA. POORLY ORGANIZED COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM ND DOWN INTO
WRN KS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WERE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS SVR
PLACEMENT/TIMING LATER TODAY AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT TO OUR WEST
MOVE INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE CONTINUES AND HAVE BASED SHORT TERM
FORECAST LARGELY ON CONCEPTUAL MODELS WITH SOME INPUTS FROM
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FIELDS OF SHORT RANGE MODELS...ALONG
WITH SOME MASS FIELDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST...IF THIS CAN WORK EAST OF THE MS RIVER...CAP
WOULD WEAKEN AND ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING IN THE NRN CWA. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AS MEAN
LAYER FLOW DIRECTS THIS ACTIVITY ENE THROUGH NRN IA...AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 4KM WRF...WHICH HAS PERFORMED DECENTLY IN THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN. HOWEVER WILL CARRY SOME CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS MORNING IN CASE CONVECTION TAKES OFF AND CAN PROPAGATE INTO
CAP AND MODIFY ENVIRONMENT THIS FAR SE.

HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NW. BY MID AFTERNOON TEMPS
SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN
MID 70S...MUCAPES APPROACH 3K J/KG. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AIDED
BY 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD ALLOW CAP TO WEAKEN AND
SUPERCELLS/CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT IN SRN IA BY MID
AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50-60 KTS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA BY 00Z...AND WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...APPEARS THE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE AS COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND
LINE TRACKS SE ACROSS THE ILX CWA DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60-80 MPH LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. SOME
LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHT NEAR 15KFT
AGL THIS SHOULD BE SECONDARY. DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
LINE...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH AN IMPRESSIVE 2+ INCHES. THE LINE
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES AND
THE BEST DYNAMICS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. WITH COLD FRONT SLOW TO
CLEAR OUR SE COUNTIES...WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SPC HAS ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF I-70 IN MDT RISK /MAINLY FOR
DMGG WINDS/ AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON LATEST DATA.

BACK TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY...PEAK HEATING AND HIGH
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP OVER
100F SOUTH OF I-72...AND POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA SOUTH OF I-70.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
QUICK LOOK AT THE EXTENDED SHOWS DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE
PERIOD BEING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE /HEAT DOME/ WHICH WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL
KEEP WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. FRONT THAT PUSHES SOUTH OF US ON SATURDAY DOES NOT HAVE MUCH
COOL AIR BEHIND IT...THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BY 5-10 DEGREES. APPEARS
THE FRONT WORKS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND MAY BRING SOME
A FEW STORMS ON SUNDAY...AND ADDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS.
FORECAST REMAINS DRY AFTER THAT...THOUGH DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS A RING OF FIRE PATTERN SETS UP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 656 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009...FOR THE 12Z TAFS

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM IOWA. WILL FORECAST IFR VIS AND MVFR
CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE LINE OF STORMS PUSHES THROUGH. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR VIS/CIGS IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE DELAYED...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
WINDS PRIMARILY SW THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.

CIG AND VIS CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE
LINE OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY BY 04Z-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

SHIMON
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
649 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

ILZ028>031-037-038-042-048-051-201200-
LOGAN-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-MENARD-PEORIA-SANGAMON-STARK-TAZEWELL-
WOODFORD-
649 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
GREATEST THREAT. SOME LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES TODAY AHEAD OF
THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL BE CONDUCTED AT 11 AM.
CALL DETAILS WILL BE AN E-MAIL.

ILZ027-036-040-041-047-049-050-201200-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MASON-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
649 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
GREATEST THREAT. SOME LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES TODAY AHEAD OF
THE STORMS.

SOME MINOR RENEWED RISES WILL OCCUR ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND
THE RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
SPOON RIVER AT LONDON MILLS WILL BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD FROM HAVANA AND DOWNSTREAM
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL BE CONDUCTED AT 11 AM.
CALL DETAILS WILL BE AN E-MAIL.

ILZ043>046-052>057-061>063-201200-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
649 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
GREATEST THREAT. SOME LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES TODAY AHEAD OF
THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL BE CONDUCTED AT 1130
AM. CALL DETAILS WILL BE AN E-MAIL.

ILZ066>068-071>073-201200-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
649 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A SQUALL
LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST
THREAT. SOME LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY 7 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

SHIMON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1009 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 AM     HAIL             PEORIA                  40.74N 89.61W
06/19/2009  E1.00 INCH       PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED BY PEORIA CITY EMA

&&

GEELHART