Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
431 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. WITH CAPES AROUND
2000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...SOME SEVERE...AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR ALL ILN
COUNTIES EXCEPT THOSE IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WIND FIELDS ARE
WEAK...SO EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
STILL...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...SO NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 60S SOUTH OF I-70...WITH 50S NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRIER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL STICK AROUND IN MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS...WITH
70S IN THE SOUTH. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND
50...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/W LOOKS TO PROVIDE A LINGERING CHANCE OF POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING DRY WX THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS SHOW A SHORTWAVE AND A SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND STALLING OUT PARALLEL TO MID/UPR LVL
FLOW ON SUNDAY. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH TO THE NORTH...SO WL LIMIT
MENTION OF CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH...WHILE
MAINTAINING A DRY FCST SOUTH. FOR SUNDAY WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS
NORTH AND AND ONLY SLIGHT CHC SOUTH.

IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLN/S DIFFER ON THE PHASING
AND THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPR TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
ERLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED THE FCST SOLN TOWARD HPC GUID/ECMWF
SOLN...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SFC WAVE TRACKING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. WL THEREFORE INCREASE POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH 40 POPS ACRS ENTIRE FA ON MONDAY. WL LINGER SILENT SLIGHT CHC
POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE WORKED TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND
CU HAS BEGUN TO POP SOUTH OF HERE SINCE CONVECTIVE TEMP AROUND 85
HAS BEEN MET. NOTHING ON RADAR AS YET TO SAY THAT STORMS COULD
REACH A CERTAIN TAF SITE...WILL AMEND IF POP UP STORMS FILL IN
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

BETTER CHANCE OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURS AS THE FRONT DRIVES
SOUTH AND UNDERCUTS THE MOIST AIRMASS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SOME OF THIS CU COULD GO SCATTERED EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND POSSIBLY RADIATE FOR SOME GROUND FOG. ONCE
THE NORTHERLY WINDS KICK IN...TEMPS TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND VSBYS
SHOULD BE REDUCED IN MIST THROUGH TOMORROW REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
OR NOT CONVECTION IS ONGOING. UPSTREAM TODAY...THE NRN 1/4 OF OHIO
WAS UNDER IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS. THIS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF
BEING OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND SOME IFR IN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
335 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-045-046-051>056-
060>065-070>074-077>082-088-031945-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-DARKE-UNION OH-DELAWARE-
MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-
HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
335 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THUS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS TO STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BOTH BEING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OHZ026-034-035-043-044-031945-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
335 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST
CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION TODAY. THIS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THUS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS TO STRENGTHEN TO SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BOTH BEING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
501 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             CENTERVILLE             39.82N 85.00W
06/02/2009  E1.75 INCH       WAYNE              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WOODRUM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
506 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             CENTERVILLE             39.82N 85.00W
06/02/2009  M1.75 INCH       WAYNE              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SITES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
507 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             RICHMOND                39.83N 84.89W
06/02/2009  M1.00 INCH       WAYNE              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SITES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
509 PM EDT TUE JUN 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             MOUNT STERLING          39.72N 83.27W
06/02/2009  E1.25 INCH       MADISON            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WOODRUM