Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TOMORROW. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERSISTENT NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NORTH OF FCST AREA IS
APPARENT ON A COUNTRY SCALE RADAR IMAGE OR EVEN VIS
SATELLITE...JUST FOLLOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM W-E. NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS IS APPARENT UNDERNEATH THIS CLOUD DECK
WHICH APPEARS TO BE 30-40 MILES N OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT
IS BEING PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN N OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS SLATED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THIS LINE OVER
ILLINOIS...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL VORT INTERACTING
WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALONG THE H7
TROUGH SITUATED FROM THE WESTERN GTLKS TO THE LOWER PLAINS.

THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LATER TODAY SHOULD KEEP A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OF THE WINDS IN THE OHIO VALLEY BUT MODELS ARE STILL
PUSHING THE FRONT AND NORTH WINDS TO THE OHIO RIVER BY 0Z.

ATTM...THERE ISNT ANYTHING FORCING SURFACE PARCELS UP. MORNING
SOUNDING WAS IMPRESSIVE WITH LI -5.3 AND 2200+ CAPE. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS 85 DEGREES AND STORMS THAT POP THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WARM SECTOR COULD GO SEVERE QUICKLY. INTERSECTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL PROBABLY ALSO CREATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM IS SHOWING A SOURCE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND OR JUST W OF
CHILLICOTHE...BUT THIS HAS TO BE TAKEN AS A WIDE SHOT.

TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER LOOK REASONABLE...WILL
ADJUST READINGS IN FAR NRN CWA DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY
ARE FORECAST ATTM...FROM MID AND UPPER 70S DOWN A CATEGORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
MAINLY IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THERE TO BE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING. THEN THERE WILL BE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD EVENTUALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF
THE FRONT WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ONCE THIS
TROUGH PASSES THEN THE REGION WILL DRY OUT.

LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH READINGS REMAINING QUITE MILD TO THE SOUTH OF IT. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER READINGS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE AND A SFC TROF/WEAK
FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED THIS FAR
SOUTH...AND DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PHASING ISSUES BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM AND ENERGY EJECTING FROM WRN U.S. UPR LOW
FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ATTM...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH A 12Z ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE BLEND DUE TO THE HIGH LVL OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL COOL ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PCPN. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
SOME MODERATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM MORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE WORKED TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND
CU HAS BEGUN TO POP SOUTH OF HERE SINCE CONVECTIVE TEMP AROUND 85
HAS BEEN MET. NOTHING ON RADAR AS YET TO SAY THAT STORMS COULD
REACH A CERTAIN TAF SITE...WILL AMEND IF POP UP STORMS FILL IN
OVER A PARTICULAR AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

BETTER CHANCE OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURS AS THE FRONT DRIVES
SOUTH AND UNDERCUTS THE MOIST AIRMASS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...SOME OF THIS CU COULD GO SCATTERED EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND POSSIBLY RADIATE FOR SOME GROUND FOG. ONCE
THE NORTHERLY WINDS KICK IN...TEMPS TAKE A NOSE DIVE AND VSBYS
SHOULD BE REDUCED IN MIST THROUGH TOMORROW REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
OR NOT CONVECTION IS ONGOING. UPSTREAM TODAY...THE NRN 1/4 OF OHIO
WAS UNDER IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS. THIS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF
BEING OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND SOME IFR IN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS

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